Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 180755
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
STRATUS...CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.  NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
STRATUS TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL
SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT THEN TURN SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRATUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT...CLEARING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...HIGH
SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 60. ELSEWHERE...THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL HOVER
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE...MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS WEAK ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME DECENT HEATING IN THE
WARMER AND MIXED AIR AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE
TO OR A BUT ABOVE 70.

TRAILING CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DIG EAST OF THE AREA AND
SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD
CLIP THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA
ON THE EDGE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR BEING DRAWN TO THE EAST
SIDE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. MODEST COOLING
MONDAY OVER SUNDAY OF A COUPLE OR THREE DEGREES WILL BE A LITTLE
STRINGER IN THAT EASTERN AREA...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE MILD ENOUGH.

TUESDAY WILL BRING SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE START OF
WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER AND EAST OF THE
AREA. SURFACE WARMING WILL BE WEAK OR NIL ESPECIALLY EAST IN
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT AGAIN IT WILL STILL BE MILD.

MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH AT MIDWEEK
AND THE TIMING OF THE RESULTING LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC BRING IT INTO THE PICTURE SOONER THAN BEFORE. THE GFS MOVES
IT STEADILY BUT FAIRLY SLOWLY ACROSS...WHILE THE EC SPLITS IT UP,
SPEEDS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH QUICKLY, AND SQUASHED THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WITH ROCKIES RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TO THE GFS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY...AFTER STARTING THEM WEDNESDAY WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...AND IF THE EC IS RIGHT...THURSDAY COULD
BE SO ALSO. EITHER WAY...THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM FALL PATTERN IS
NOT IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
THIS TO LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT THE TAF SITES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD



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