Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 292334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THICK PLUME OF SMOKE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD IMPACTING NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOST NOTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
BECAUSE OF THIS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST AND WE ARE HAVING A HECK OF A TIME REACHING OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE LOWERED THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING POPS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BUT
EVEN THOSE MAY BE TOO HIGH AND IF NOTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY. LATER
TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING DOWN A STRIPE OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOCUSED DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY GETTING
INTO THE SIOUX CITY AREA. THE VARIOUS HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
LIGHT RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MID DECK. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LOOKS
RATHER STABLE. THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY AND I 29 CORRIDOR WITH THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL AT
ALL.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
ON TUESDAY A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S COMMON. THIS IS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
EVEN IF THAT WOULD SOMEHOW NOT EXIST...WORRIED ABOUT SMOKE
REMAINING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF WEAK WAVES DIVES SOUTHEAST...THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
WAVES ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN.

TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN APPROACHING WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND GEM FOCUS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE
FURTHER EAST WITH THE WAVE. ADDITIONALLY THE GEM IS QUITE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN HALF...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST LATE AT NIGHT. CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK
MEAGER AT BEST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS DROP ANOTHER WAVE INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WAVE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL SPELL THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AGAIN...THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT
ON WHERE THE WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CWA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
WAVE...CONSENSUS HEDGES THINKS TOWARDS OUR WEST...SO WILL KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES FOR NOW.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
ACROSS AREA AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT AGAIN...EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TRACK AND TIMING. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HOWEVER...A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER
SEEMS MORE LIKELY WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AT BOTH
KFSD AND KSUX WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP TO 5-7SM.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LIGHT VFR RAIN SHOWER AFTER 08Z AT
KHON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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