Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 262037
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON GOING...
MAINLY IN TWO AREAS. ONE CONCENTRATED AREA IS BETWEEN I 29 AND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS AROUND THE STORM
LAKE IA VICINITY. THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE DRIFING SOUTHWARD AND
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST PROVIDING UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...NOT
SURPRISED THAT THIS ACTIVITY GOT GOING THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
DIFFERENT FOR SATURDAY...IN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS STILL IN EASTERN ND
AND NW MINNESOTA. SUBTLE RIDGING IS NOTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE FOR NOW...
LEFT SATURDAY DRY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE COOLER
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
THIS PLACES LOWS ABOUT 55 TO 60. AND ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PROVIDING SOME
DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL. THEREFORE HAVE MID AND UPPER 80S GOING FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY AND OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...COOLING OFF A BIT TO
THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I 29.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MINNESOTA AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR
CWA. WITH THIS...MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THROUGH MAINLY OUR MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA ZONES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY A
WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD...YIELDING
SOME WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE DOWN THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR AREA DURING
THE EXTENDED...THOUGH PIN POINTING THE EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT DUE
TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. DOES APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. AFTER A SUBTLE COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY READINGS WILL REMAIN NOT FAR OFF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VFR CUMULUS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ITEM
WORTH WATCHING IS SCATTERED TSRA. FOR NOW...LEFT THE MENTION OF
TSRA OUT OF THE KHON...KSUX AND KFSD TAF SITES THINKING IT WILL BE
TOO SCATTERED TO MENTION AT A POINT LOCATION. BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND IF A THUNDERSHOWER GETS CLOSE TO
ONE OR MORE OF THE TAF SITES. THIS EVENING...THE HEATING BASED
CUMULUS WILL DIE OFF LEAVING VFR AND VERY LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ


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