940
FXUS63 KFSD 262357
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
657 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/isolated storms will continue to diminish
  in coverage through this afternoon. Still a low risk for an
  isolated strong/severe storm in our far southeast counties
  this afternoon, but greater threat will be east of Highway 71
  corridor.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances continue Friday evening through
  the weekend. Some indication that storms could become strong
  to severe at times. Begin monitoring this time period if you
  have outdoor plans.

- Warming temperatures and increasing humidity this weekend will
  bring a risk of heat indices above 100F in some areas Saturday
  afternoon. Otherwise seasonably warm temperatures will prevail
  much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: As the slow-moving wave lifts northeast through
the rest of the afternoon, our remaining showers/isolated storms
east of I-29 should continue to push east and diminish prior to
sunset. Limited mixing with broad cloud cover today, combined with
decent rainfall over the past 2-3 days will leave behind abundant
boundary layer moisture. Surface high pressure drifts in tonight,
providing light winds and a general attempt at clearing behind the
departing wave. This could set up a reasonable set-up for some fog
development overnight over a broad expanse of the forecast area,
though some question as to whether dense fog will develop or not.
This would linger just beyond sunrise Friday, but should burn off
pretty quickly.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: A more unsettled quasi-zonal flow
pattern sets up for this last weekend of June, with various waves
triggering periodic chances for storms from Friday evening into
Sunday. Given some dependence on the previous day`s activity, the
exact timing/location of storm chances is somewhat uncertain.
However, we could be looking at multiple rounds of strong to
severe storms during this period. Currently Friday evening looks
to be round 1, though some question regarding whether storms
coming out of central SD in the early evening will maintain
strength as they move east of the James River. 12Z HRRR/FV3 had
presented an alternate scenario showing limited early evening
activity with a stronger complex diving southeast out of ND late
evening into the overnight; however, the 18Z HRRR has backed away
from this, instead keeping the stronger ND complex well to our
north. Pockets of damaging wind look to be the primary threat with
storms that may impact the forecast area Friday evening.

How Friday night-early Saturday evolves could play a role in later
Saturday activity and too much uncertainty to pinpoint a preferred
solution at this point. That said, forecast soundings are much
more robust with projected instability with steeper mid-level
lapse rates supporting a greater large hail threat, and dry mid
levels and sub-cloud layers providing a risk for damaging wind.
Main question would be whether storms can maintain some semblance
of organization or be more pulsy as deep layer shear is on the
weaker side.

Transition to a broad mid-upper level trough takes place Sunday,
which would drag a cool front southeast into the area. Could see
isolated stronger storms develop along this boundary, though its
timing is in question with little model agreement at this range.

Compared to today, the coming days will see a return of warmer and
more humid air, with highs in the 80s most days, briefly pushing
into the 90s on Saturday. Combined with dew points in the 70s,
this could produce some areas of triple-digit heat indices by
Saturday afternoon, so may have to monitor for possible heat
headlines.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Early-mid week could see some modest mid-upper
level ridging build into the area, but currently not seeing any
signs that significant heat will return. Instead, temperatures
look to be near to slightly above normal as we head into July next
week. Spotty rain chances may accompany any weak waves that move
through the area, but confidence is low in pinpointing any timing
or location.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A mainly MVFR cloud deck is wrapping around a low pressure system
exiting off to the east of the area at the start of the period. The
western edge of this cloud deck is slowly eroding, and thus some
returns to VFR conditions are likely to occur this evening over
parts of South Dakota. However; due to light winds and wet grounds
tonight, fog is likely to develop starting around 6-8Z and will
likely get dense at times heading into daybreak. Visibilities
down to 1/4 mile will be possible over parts of South Dakota
especially up by KHON, with 1-2 mile visibilities prevailing
elsewhere.

After the fog fades around 14Z Friday, VFR conditions are expected
for the rest of the period. We look to remain dry for most of the
day tomorrow, though a line of storms will attempt to enter the area
in and around K9V9 towards the very end of the period.

Winds will turn light and variable as we head through the evening
hours Thursday, not picking up again until the daytime hours Friday.
Winds on Friday will be mainly out of the south/southeasterly
direction across the area, with gust up to 25 kts, strongest
along the Missouri River Valley in central South Dakota and
decreasing as you head east across the I-29 corridor.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...Samet