Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 131731
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1131 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Relatively uneventful short term forecast. Southerly breeze and
clearing skies will lead to a warmer day for Tuesday, with highs as
much as 20 degrees warmer compared to Monday. Wind direction will be
favorable for some gusty winds along the Buffalo Ridge Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Widespread snow cover will unfortunately limit
afternoon heating potential. Have nonetheless bumped highs slightly
over consensus in accordance with guidance trends and favorable wind
and sky conditions.

Some hint at advection fog Tuesday night as southerly flow
continues. Looking at current observations across the central
plains, do not think the air mass being advected will be moist
enough for fog formation. It can`t be totally ruled out given the
modification that will take place due to our snow cover, but am
leaving it out of the forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Things heat up for Valentine`s Day with highs potentially reaching
into the 40s. Guidance has a series of mid level waves translate
west to east across the CWA Wednesday but the moisture will simply
not be there in a high enough quantity for much in the way of
precipitation, let alone sky cover.

Longwave trough will approach on Thursday and drive a pretty strong
cold front across the region, likely bringing us another round of
light snow. Strong surface pressure gradient and CAA aloft will
drive some gusty northerly winds Thursday afternoon and evening in
the wake of the frontal passage.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal during the weekend allowing
temperatures to recover a bit after a cold Friday. Operational runs
have backed off a bit on the warmth for the weekend and are now
within the envelope of their ensembles, although they are still
decidedly on the warm side. Still keeping highs above freezing for
now.

Precipitation chances return Sunday afternoon through Monday as next
longwave trough impacts the region. Significant differences in
evolution - the EC has a much more amplified trough than the CMC or
GFS - between medium range guidance preclude focusing on any
specific period at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...


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