Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 170408
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1108 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD SO AM IN THE PROCESS OF
INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE CLOUDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

POST FRONTAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO PUSH NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS A 45 KNOT CHANNEL OF WINDS PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH STRATUS BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INTO FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON WINDS.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY MINOR DECOUPLING AS WE
APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY.  HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE TOWARD MIDNIGHT...GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.  0-0.5/0.1 LAPSE RATES SHARPEN QUICKLY WITH SOUNDINGS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A CHANNEL OF 40+ KNOTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WHICH COULD BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTH...THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TEMPERED.  RAW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT MID TO UPPER 40S FOR LOWS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK THROUGH MID-DAY...BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
MUCH COLDER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US MIGRATES EAST FORCING THE
JETSTREAM TO BUCKLE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ARE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WINDS COULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15 RANGE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ABATES...AND THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPERATURES MORE MILD IN THE EAST.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR A
PICTURESQUE FALL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAW WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STILL EXPECT SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT BREEZY PRODUCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST MAY KEEP THINGS FROM
ADVANCING AS QUICK AS SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...AND MAINLY CONFINED
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST THROUGH KSUX
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS THAT LOWER CEILINGS WILL
BECOME QUITE PERSISTENT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LAYER DOES
THIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE LATTER AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUDS BY THIS TIME...AS WELL AS LIMITED HEATING TO PUSH
CEILINGS TOWARD LOWER END OF VFR. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN


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