Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 161015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
415 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Frigid wind chills will diminish this morning after sunrise as
winds weaken and subtle low-level warm advection slowly begins to
bring in more mild air. It will still be a well below average day,
with high temperatures in the single digits. Skies clear
throughout the evening, leading to another cool night.
Nevertheless, the cold will feel much less extreme than Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The pattern of warming continues Wednesday through the end of the
week. The upper level trough that brought extreme cold moves east,
allowing a high-amplitude ridge to build over the region. By
Wednesday morning, winds will have switched to southwesterly,
continuing to usher in warmer air. This direction is favorable for
downslope wind enhancement for the eastern slope of the Buffalo
Ridge, including areas around Marshall and Windom, MN. While most
will only see winds on the order of 10 to 15 mph, areas downstream
of the Buffalo Ridge could see 20 to 30 mph winds during the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures should peak just above seasonal
averages, primarily in the high 20s to mid 30s.

The longwave ridge remains over the region Thursday and Friday. A
quick-moving shortwave moves through the ridge on Thursday
morning, but the only effect of this disturbance for our region
will be an increase in clouds. Despite cloud cover, temperatures
should reach near 40 on Thursday, and low to mid 40s by Friday.
Low sun angle this time of year will limit daytime heating, but
the lack of deep snow cover could allow even weak sunshine to
raise these temperatures a couple degrees further in areas that
manage to melt snow off early.

An approaching trough next weekend will cool temperatures to near
seasonal averages. The main feature of interest is a strong surface
low pressure system which deepens over Iowa. The location and timing
of this feature continue to shift run-to-run; however, models have
been consistent in showing potential for snow during this timeframe
as the system skirts south and east of the tri-state area. The
latest projections show northwest Iowa to be the most likely area
for new accumulations. If traveling through this region next
weekend, continue to monitor the forecast as details on this
system come into focus over the next several days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Areas of MVFR ceilings will improve through the night time hours,
with winds slowly decreasing through the night. As winds continue
to taper down, patchy blowing snow will also diminish, though
could still see a few flurries, mainly east of I-29, through 10Z.
By early Tuesday morning conditions will be VFR across the entire
area with light winds during the day.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ038-050-052>055-

     Wind Chill Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for SDZ039-

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ039-040-056.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ098.

     Wind Chill Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ071-

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ071-072-080-081-

IA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ001-002-012-013-

     Wind Chill Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ003-

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ003-014-022.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ013-014.



SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...JM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.