Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 242336
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST IA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SNOW SO FAR...WE HAVE BEEN GOING TO A LATE AFTERNOON
PEAK IN THE ACCUMULATION THREAT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUED FIT WITH THAT IDEA. WITH SOME SPOTTY ICING
TO BOOT...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE SPOTTY ICING IS LIKELY TO ABATE BUT
MAY SHOW UP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A VERY SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOSS OF THE SOLAR RADIATION EFFECT THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AS FOR THE SNOW...A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSH WOULD COME
QUICKLY AND AT THE TIME PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO BE OUT DRIVING...WHAT I
CALL THE PRAIRIE EARLY EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END STEADILY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN...LASTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER WAVE
SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA COULD
BRING SOME VERY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
START OF THE MORNING TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA...BUT POPS WILL BE
LOW AND THE DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHORT.

THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
WINDY BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HOLD SHORT OF WIN ADVISORY LEVELS
EVEN THOUGH I AM GOING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MIXED
AIR.

SOME CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE COOL BUT MIXED AIR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO BE SOLID...AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AFTER LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30 TONIGHT...MEANING LITTLE DROP INT
HE EAST...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH A FEW
50 DEGREE READINGS SOUTH. THAT WILL OF COURSE BE WARMER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BUT COOLER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

GENERALLY A RATHER TRANQUIL MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY A
FEW TROUBLE SPOTS. SHARP NWLY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TODAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL SPELL A RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
MID-LVL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...A TIGHTENING LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ZIP THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A
SECOND LATE FRIDAY.  QPF WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BOTH DAYS WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE COULD
MAKE A RUN INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WINTRY MIX WILL EXIT NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 10
PM. EXPECT LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
CLEARING BEHIND IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD WEDNESDAY OF MVFR
STRATOCU IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. OTHER
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS...AS SOME INDICATION THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING RATHER GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. TODAYS
WETTING RAINS HAVE MAINLY IMPACTED AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...LEAVING FUELS IN THE AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER DRY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER RISKS IN THE AFTERNOON.

COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MINIMIZING
THE WILDFIRE RISK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-
     003-013-014-021-022-032.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...DUX


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