Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
393
FXUS63 KFSD 030003
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
603 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

NO BIG SURPRISES SO FAR TODAY. SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE
DROPPING OFF A BIT TOO...BUT WITH SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING A
RESURGENCE IN THE WINDS OVER THAT AREA AS THE LOW MOVES BY...SOME
LINGERING OR RETURNING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND A WEALTH OF
NEW SNOW...WILL KEEP THE BLIZZARD WARNING GOING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE WINDS STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST AND SNOWFALL
BEHAVING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED...THERE WILL ALSO BE NO CHANGES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING OR IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ON THE EDGE...FOR NOW. IN BETWEEN...FROM SAY DIXON
COUNTY NE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN FSD AND SUX AND INTO SOUTHWEST
MN...KEEPING THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS A REAL NO BRAINER WITH THE
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW STILL GOING...JUST NOT FIT FOR
ANYTHING ALIVE TO BE GOING ANYWHERE. THE MIDNIGHT ENDING FOR THE
ADVISORY AND THE LATE NIGHT END TO THE WARNING CAN BE LOOKED AT
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL HANG IN PRETTY STRONG...INCREASING AGAIN SOUTHEAST AS NOTED
ABOVE...UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE WILL START A STEADY EBBING.
CLOUDS WILL HANG IN UNTIL THE EXITING OF THE SYSTEM AND FOLLOWING
RIDGING HELP BRING DECREASING CLOUDS FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MORE
QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...SINCE I HAVE GOTTEN INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
WEST LATER IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY WAVE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DO A STEADY DROP INTO THE TEENS...WHICH
DROP MAY BE WELL INTO THE MORNING EAST...THEN EDGE BACK INTO THE 20S
WEST WHILE LIKELY GOING UP ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE TEENS
EAST. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE INTERMEDIATE AND LONGER RANGE OF THE FORECAST IS MARKED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING PERSISTING MORE OR
LESS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE FREQUENT SHORT WAVES WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT
OVERALL HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MOVES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FLURRIES OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST MN BY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME DID WANT TO
GO ANY MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES. A SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE HAS DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH IT...ALL THE WAY FROM CLOSE TO 850MB TO ABOVE 500MB.
THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE PLENTY COUPLED WITH SOME SMALL SNOW
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN...AND ADJACENT AREAS
TO THE WEST IN EAST CENTRAL SD. THIS WAVE ALSO ACTS AS A WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN MORE MILD TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE VARIOUS BLENDED
GUIDANCE READINGS...BOTH BIAS CORRECTED AND NON BIAS CORRECTED...
WERE ALL FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HAD A TENDENCY TO KEEP OUR WESTERN ZONES
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE MILD FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE
FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS IN OUR EAST. THE OVERALL AIR MASS REGIME IS
RATHER MILD OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BUT STILL...CHOPPED A CATEGORY OFF THE TEMPERATURES IN MANY
OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR HIGHS LATE THIS WEEK.

ON SUNDAY...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BUT WITH NOT A LOT OF PRECIP TIED TO IT. IT
WILL GIVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RUSH OF COLD AIR MOVING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SMALL SNOW CHANCES
ON MONDAY. THE UPPER FLOW IS STRAIGHT OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CANADA SO IN A MORE NORMAL WINTER POSSIBLY COUPLED WITH AN NAO...IT
WILL BE VERY COLD. BUT THIS WINTER...THE 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE MORE MUTED. SO BY TUESDAY HIGHS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS EAST...TO
20S WEST...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL
BECOME WINDY HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AVERAGING 20 TO 35
MPH WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WINDS AVERAGING 25 TO 40 KT THIS
EVENING WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ056-061-062-
     065>071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR SDZ040-
     050-054-055-059-060-063-064.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.

NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.