Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 170437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1037 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Tonight will see light winds again as a weak trough of low pressure
drifts into the area. This should allow for temperatures to drop off
a bit, but not quite as cool as this morning. Will probably lower
lows a bit in a few spots, but overall most locations will see
morning temperatures from the upper 20s to mid 30s. This will lead
into a very warm Friday as this trough of low pressure/cool front
moves through. However, the latest runs have sped up this weak cool
front so will need to decrease highs a touch. The best chance for
mid to upper 60s continues to be across northwest Iowa, especially
from Sioux City to around Storm Lake. Most of southeast SD and
southwest MN will see upper 50s to lower 60s, so no changes but
maybe walk temperatures back 2 degrees or so. Cloud cover should not
be much of an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A weak boundary will slide through the area Friday night as a wave
moves through ND into northern MN. This will not have too much
effect on temperatures, but should allow for a marvelous day as
winds slowly recover, leaving most locations with winds below 10 mph
through the day. Saturday could prove to be a lot like today.

Saturday night into Sunday will see a strong southerly gradient
develop from west to east across the area, which will be the change
that brings about the pattern change supporting both warm days and
very mild nights into the middle of next week. Lows Saturday night
will likely range from the middle 30s to lower 40s while highs
Sunday range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Expect a few wind gusts
of 25 to 30 mph late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night into Monday morning will see this strong southerly
gradient remain in place which will set up a very strong potential
for many locations see lows the warmest they have ever been in
February. Temperatures on Monday morning will likely be from the
upper 40s to lower 50s. The models are just a touch slower this time
around on the boundary moving through which likely means highs a
little warmer in east of Interstate 29 with temperatures possibly
remaining mild enough through midnight to keep the morning record
lows in tact for the climate day. Still a decent chance for a little
light rain and a small chance for a rumble of thunder on Monday
which if the rain became more widespread would suppress highs a bit.

Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry and warm again with highs mainly
55 to 65 and lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday will see the leading edge of the upper level wave expected
to move onto the Plains and will need a chance for rain.

Still keeping an eye on a potentially vigorous system for Thursday
night into Friday. One thing in common with all of the models is a
great deal of energy expected to spread onto the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR will continue through the TAF period.




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