Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 302317
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
617 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FURTHER CHANGES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION/STRATUS SOON TO COVER EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS STRONG WAVE DIGS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND TAIL
OF WAVE SHEARS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING PUSH WILL ACT ON SOUTHWARD PRESSING STRATUS FIELD...WHICH
COULD YIELD A BRIEF BIT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AFTERNOON. DRYING
PUSH BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 02Z...SPREADING TO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 05-07Z. VERY DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
GREATEST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY WILL LEAD TO COLDEST LOWS IN THE
TEENS...WHILE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S PREVAIL TO THE EAST WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE EXPECTED.

SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
KEEPING WINDS A BIT FRESH THROUGH THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.  THERMAL ADVECTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY NEUTRAL THROUGH THE
WEST...SO SHOULD GET DECENT SHALLOW MIXING EVEN VICINITY OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. LIKELY WILL GET AT LEAST SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY BE A MINOR HINDRANCE TO
WARMING. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS WILL PICK UP...MOST
NOTABLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29. WITH INCREASED MIXING...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT TANK AS MUCH OVER THAT AREA...AND WILL STEADY OUT OR RISE
DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWEST READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. TO
THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LESS AND THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN LOCALES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER AND WINDIER DAY IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
AND WINDS RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HIGHS WILL TOP OUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...RUNNING FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO
LOWER 50S WEST.

EVEN BETTER WARMING WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLOSING IN ON 15 C THROUGH THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHICH
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ZONES...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE MID 50S THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN
U.S. IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE FROM THE NORTH AS DRY AIR PUNCHES
SOUTHWARD. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE ABOUT 8Z...LIKELY
CLOSER TO 4Z NEAR HON AND 7Z NEAR SUX. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 6Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...08



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