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000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOCUS IS ON LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1010MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF ROCHESTER
MN...MOVING NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MO. A FEW LIGHT SHRA HAVE BEEN POPPING UP
JUST EAST OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...MAIN DEFORMATION BAND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/MID-
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI...WITH
TAYLOR COUNTY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS DEFORMATION SNOW.
CALL UP TO TAYLOR COUNTY SHERIFF INDICATES LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT. WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WAS UNDER CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MI BY NOON
AND FILLING/WEAKENING AS IT DOES. THINKING BULK OF DEFORMATION SNOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL-END SNOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI. EXPECTING LITTLE IF
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW HIGH WITH FAIRLY BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S READINGS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS MID CLOUD
SPREAD IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY
STRONG 700-500MB ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION FOR AN INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE JUST WEST OF OUR
AREA OVER CENTRAL MN. THINKING LOWER LEVELS JUST TOO DRY FOR ANY
SHOWERS MAKING INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LOOK FOR THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH BETTER
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER STAYING CONFINED MORE ACROSS NORTHWEST WI
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST IA. WARM AIR ADVECTION/BREEZY SOUTH
WIND AND 0-1KM TEMPERATURES PER THE NAM INCREASING INTO THE 10-18C
RANGE. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE 60S/PUSHING 70 ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

PLAN ON THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AN INCREASING
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. ALSO INCLUDED A THUNDER MENTION WITH
ELEVATED/2-5KM MUCAPE INCREASING UP AROUND 300J/KG CENTERED ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S AND ON HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MIDDLE 60S.

LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA.
HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S.

LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD
INTO NEXT WEEK  WITH BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS TUESDAY
REMAINING IN THE 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFT TOWARD THE REGION OUT OF
THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR KLSE. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND
THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS EVEN A POCKET
OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG THAT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF KLSE AND MOVE
OUT OF KRST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW BACK ACROSS IOWA INTO NEBRASKA...BUT THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WAS ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST...EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO START ALLOWING THEM
TO BREAK UP. THE 17.06Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THESE CLOUDS AND SUGGESTS THEY CLOUD LAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE THAT PESSIMISTIC BUT
DID HOLD ONTO THEM LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONCE THE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS KEEPING RIVER LEVELS
ELEVATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
WABASHA AND MCGREGOR AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DAS