Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 151145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Forecast area currently between departing mid-level trough over the
Great Lakes and ridge of high pressure building in from the Western
CONUS. Northerly flow was bringing down a few cirrus/altocumulus
through Manitoba/western Ontario into northern MN/WI. These clouds
may prove to be a sky forecast challenge through today.
Modeled/forecast RH show the potential for potentially thicker cloud
cover but current IR satellite imagery shows this cloud thinning as
it progresses southward. Synthetic GOES imagery shows thicker cloud
cover would be east of the Mississippi River. Of course cloud cover
would put a damper on temperatures as well. With this in mind and
limited mixing today as surface high drifts overhead, highs will be
a bit chillier (actually closer to normal) in the upper 20s to the
middle 30s.

Mid-level ridge and warming Plains air begins to move into the area
Thursday with highs expected to to top off in the 30 to middle 40s.
Plan on lows Thursday night in the 20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Quiet and much warmer than normal conditions setup across the area
Friday into the weekend thanks to an amplifying mid/upper level
ridge across the central CONUS. Look for highs ranging from the
upper 40s across north central WI and 50s across the rest of the
forecast area. Highs may actually flirt with the 60 degree mark for
some locations across northeast IA into far southwest WI where there
has been no snow on the ground.

Latest extended models a bit slower and weaker with low pressure
ejecting out of the southwest for Monday into Tuesday. Nonetheless,
looks like a decent shot at some rain for the area. Will have to
watch highs Monday. If rain holds off to the west longer we could
heat up a bit more than  Have 50s/near 60 going right now, but if
the ECMWF pans out, we could be looking at temperatures that would
be in record territory.

A bit of a cool down with a lingering chance of rain for Tuesday.
Look for highs in the 40s to middle 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid to high
level clouds are expected at the TAF sites today into tonight.
Plan on ceilings lowering into the 5-8kft range this afternoon.
Mainly cirrus are then expected overnight. Look for northwest
winds to diminish and become westerly today as high pressure
builds in. Winds will become light and southeasterly for the
overnight hours.


Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Well above normal temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will put a
major hurt on or get rid of whatever snowpack is left across the
area. This snowmelt combined with a frozen layer of ground is
expected to runoff into area streams and rivers. No flooding is
expected at this time but within bank rises are likely along with
the potential for a few ice jams due to ice break-up. Those with
interests along streams and rivers will want to keep up with the
latest forecasts.


Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees above normal Friday
through Monday. Right now, it is looking like Monday will be the day
to watch for near record highs. Here are the forecast and record highs
for La Crosse and Rochester for Monday February 20th:

             La Crosse                     Rochester

   Forecast High / Record High   Forecast High / Record High
         59             61             56             60




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