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000
FXUS63 KARX 031111
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
510 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING. FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -20 TO -30. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE VERY COLD...RANGING FROM -10 TO -25. THE ARCTIC
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE THE DAKOTAS AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS...STRETCHING
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 600 MB. OMEGA WITHIN THIS GROWTH ZONE
ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DGZ WE SHOULD
SEE SNOW RATIOS RIGHT AROUND 20:1. LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE
TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST 500-300 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
TRACKING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER SATURATION
AND DGZ LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE
90 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER THE LAST FEW MODELS RUNS
BUT NOW WITH THE 06Z RUN HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
AND GFS BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCING
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARMER AIRMASS THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 4 C OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA TO -2 C OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30...THEN WARM
EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN
MIXING IN OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY. SOME WEAK RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO FINALLY BE A PATTERN SHIFT OUT OF THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORMAL/NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MID LEVEL /8-10 KFT/ CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARMING. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE IS PRODUCING -SN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL
BRING SOME -SN TO KRST/KLSE THIS EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AT THE
MOMENT...BUT SOME 2SM IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS JUST YET. SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME MVFR LOOKS POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z. WILL INCLUDE FOR KRST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING TO A
SHARP UPPER LEVEL INVERSION NEAR 5 KFT LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO HINTS
OF LLWS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK