Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 180416
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1110 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Main focus is on severe potential this afternoon into this evening.

Current analysis has surface/mid-level low pressure center over
eastern Nebraska. Radar has some ongoing showers/thunderstorms ahead
of the low moving across portions of southwest into central WI.
Otherwise, temperatures were in the upper 60s to middle 70s with dew
points in the 60s.

Severe threat looks on track for the area this afternoon into this
evening as the low lifts out of Nebraska into southeast MN.
Increasing MuCape/Bulk Shear/Helicity sets up across our area for
the likelihood of supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The highest tornado threat looks
to be from northeast IA into southwest in central WI. The highest
severe threat time still looks to be in the 3 to 8 pm time frame.
There will also be the likelihood of some localized heavier rainfall
from the storms with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches.

Look for these storms to exit the area by later this evening but
lingering showers will continue through the night into Thursday on
the backside of the departing low/cyclonic flow aloft. Otherwise,
cooler temperatures will be seen Thursday under clouds and cold
cyclonic flow aloft. Look for highs only in the 50s to middle 60s
along with brisk north winds.

Decreasing cloudiness is expected Thursday night mainly north of I-
90 as high pressure noses in from Canada. Low temperatures are
expected to dip into the middle 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Friday will see a chance of showers mainly southwest of I-94 as a
mid-level trough and push of 850mb moisture transport move in.
Otherwise, still on the cool side with highs only in the 50s.

Low pressure lifts from the Southern Plains into the region Friday
night through Saturday for the likelihood of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Otherwise, gulf looks wide open with this system for
plenty of available moisture. Look for the bulks of showers to move
out by late Saturday night, with a lingering chance of showers on
Sunday across north central WI. Otherwise, temperatures stay below
normal with highs Saturday and Sunday in the upper 50s to the middle
60s.

Cooler cyclonic flow aloft lingers over the region Monday through
Wednesday for shower chances and temperatures remaining below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The low pressure system responsible for the shra/ts of Tue will be
exiting northeast overnight, sliding over northern Mich by 18z Thu.
Scattered showers will persist around the TAF sites through Thu
morning as a result, but don`t anticipate a thunder threat at this
time. Should get into some IFR/MVFR cigs as the low moves through,
improving later toward Thu evening. Winds will swing to the north as
the low passes - by 12z Thu - and then more northeasterly for Thu
night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....Rieck



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