Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 062131 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ANOTHER TRICKY STRATUS FORECAST. FIRST THINGS FIRST...KLSE HAS
RECENTLY SCATTERED OUT...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL STAY THAT WAY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THAT EVER-INCREASING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE
HELPING HOLD THE LOWER STRATUS AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. HOWEVER...
KRST REMAINS BURIED IN THICKER LOW STRATUS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z...MAYBE LONGER...THOUGH DO
EXPECT SURFACE VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRY TO NUDGE ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KLSE LATER THIS EVENING...
THOUGH HONESTLY THAT REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...
THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THAT SAME TIME...
THOUGH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
BOTH TAF SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
THICKER 4-5KFT CLOUDS ROLLING BACK INTO THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING JUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE



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