Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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849
FXUS63 KARX 020420
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900 TO
500 MB LAYER MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A
BOUNDARY....AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGING SOUTHWARD...WILL
GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST  MINNESOTA  THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 5 KFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION . A FEW SPOTS COULD MEASURE A HUNDREDTH  OR SO. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED .
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY SHOULD START OFF AS MOSTLY SUNNY THEN A CUMULUS FIELD
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE
A QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AFTER A QUIET AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH
IS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS  TO THE AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS TRENDING FURTHER  WEST...THEREFORE THE STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
FAIRLY STRONG...55 TO 60 KTS...THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE WILL
HOLD THE CAP ON ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING ONLY AROUND 100 TO 200 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. THE MOST ROBUST FORECAST  MODEL IS THE NAM12 WHICH IS
SHOWING 500 TO 750 J/KG OF MUCAPE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE SINCE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER
40S...WHILE THE NAM12 IS INDICATING  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE NAM12 AND MORE TOWARDS A MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR DEW POINT VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF
BY MID EVENING TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH
ITS GOING TO BE BREEZY/WINDY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH WEAK CYCLONIC  FLOW IN PLACE AND COLD AIR
ALOFT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST  AREA
ON THURSDAY. RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA DRY AND QUIET. THE RIDGE FINALLY EDGES IN BY FRIDAY BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING  CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE TIMEFRAME FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO ENTER
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MOSTLY SKC/SCT FROM I-90 NORTH...BUT TO THE SOUTH BKN VFR CIGS HAVE
PERSISTED...AND MAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD RETURN
FOR THE TAF SITES TOWARD 18Z MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR CU DEVELOPMENT. DON/T THINK -SHRA
ARE A THREAT AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK TO STAY LIGHT THANKS TO A
SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH DIRECTION VARIABLE BETWEEN NORTHWEST-
NORTHEAST...THEN MORE VRBL AT NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



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