Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 252308
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE
TAIL-END OF A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...A PRETTY
SEASONABLY NORMAL DAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 7OS TO THE LOWER 80S.

WRF MODELS HAVE THE CONVECTION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEAKENING/FADING OUT EARLY ON THIS EVENING...PROBABLY NOT REACHING
MUCH PAST I-94 BEFORE COMPLETELY FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO IA AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WRF MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO WILL GO
WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS MAINLY WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO ELKADER IA
LINE.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK FORCING WITH THE WAVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 20-40 PERCENT POP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THEN LOOK
TO RAPIDLY DWINDLE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EXIT OF THE
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLY NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 75-
80 DEGREE RANGE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY WITH NAM/GFS PRODUCING 0-
3KM MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 1500-3000J/KG. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...SO LOOKS LIKE A PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW HAILERS. PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AGAIN IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.

ON/OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE 25.18Z
CR-NAM NEST WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT INDICATES THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPING AND WITH THE WIDELY SCATTERED
NATURE OF THEM WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...STILL NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT THEY WOULD HIT EITHER TAF SITE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VCSH. AFTER THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE...SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO GO SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
25.21Z HRRR...25.18Z CR-NAM NEST AND NAM ALONG WITH THE 25.12Z
HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALL SHOWING THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE
STAYING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



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