Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 121733
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

The main impactful weather concern will be on a light rain and
possibly freezing rain mix early this morning with minimal impact
to travel. Focus then turns to gusty, and at times strong,
northwest winds today.

Watching light rain moving across the forecast area early this
morning. With temperatures right around the freezing mark along and
north of Interstate 90, snow may mix in at times. Much of the
precipitation should switch over to a light wintry mix before
ending by 9 AM. Strong northwest winds will develop this morning
as a strong pressure gradient and cold air advection kicks in.
Plan on northwest winds of 17 to 20 mph with gust of 35 mph
possible. We could see a few gusts around to 40 mph across the open
areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. Will have to keep a
close eye on how deeply the atmosphere mixes today, we may need a
wind advisory if deeper mixing occurs with gusts to around 45 mph
possible. The cold air advection then drops off a bit by this
afternoon so temperatures could actually rise a bit this afternoon
into the lower to upper 30s. The NAM forecast soundings across the
area indicate we could see a few snow showers today. Not seeing this
potential in the RAP or GFS with shallower moisture noted. Will keep
the dry forecast of 15t going from late this morning through this
afternoon. High pressure moves across the region tonight providing
dry and quiet weather. Colder air moves in late this afternoon into
tonight with low temperatures falling into the upper teens to lower
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

High pressure quickly slides east of the region on Monday as a weak
surface trough approaches from the Northern Plains. Temperatures
will warm nicely on Monday ahead of the trough. Plan on
southwesterly winds and highs temperatures climbing into the mid and
upper 40s. Winds then turn northwesterly in the wake of the trough
Tuesday. An upper level trough dives into the Great Lakes from
Ontario bringing cooler air into the area. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to range from the lower 20s across northern Wisconsin to
the upper 20s and lower 30s over northeast Iowa into far southwest
Wisconsin. Ridging builds across the region for Thursday into Friday
as a trough dives into the southwest Conus. Unseasonably warm
conditions are looking likely going into the weekend. The ECWMF
boosts highs well into the 50s across the area and seeing similar
signals in the GFS. Have increased highs over the model consensus
blend and if trends continue will have to warm highs even more.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday noon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Main concern this TAF period will be the winds. Good VFR expected
this period as dry/cooler Can high pressure builds east across the
region, with any clouds thru mid-day monday mainly sct cirrus.
Concern this TAF period is the brisk NW winds on the east side of
the high. Period starts out with NW winds around 20kt G30kts. These
winds to already start diminishing after 21z, then continue to
diminish thru the evening as the sfc ridge axis approaches, becoming
south and SW 5-8kts later tonight as the ridge axis passes. S and SW
winds to increase by later Mon morning into Mon afternoon with
diurnal warming/mixing and some tightening of the pressure gradient
over the area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM....Wetenkamp
AVIATION.....RRS



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