Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ



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