Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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093
FXUS63 KARX 030822
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENTUAL EXIT OF THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. MAIN THRUST OF HEAVY PRECIP IS WELL PAST THE
REGION...BUT THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION WAS STILL NEAR KDMX AT 07Z
PER RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS. THIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR KDBQ BY 12Z
AND TO NEAR KMKX BY 18Z. RADAR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC
DRIVEN DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CIRCULATION...AND ANTICIPATE THIS WILL TRACK RIGHT ALONG WITH IT.
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS WITH THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT
COULD END UP DROPPING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF
YESTERDAYS MESS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING ISSUES. BUT THE WET
NATURE OF THIS SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL BLOWING ISSUES.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THE
OVERALL IMPACT IS DIMINISHING SO WILL LET THE WARNING EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 AM. BY THAT TIME ROAD CREWS WILL BE OUT EN MASS TO
MITIGATE MOST TRAVEL TROUBLE.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF MN/IA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
STEADY OR EVEN FALL SOME DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD
PROVIDE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULUATION. THAT QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...BUT THE NEXT ONE IS DUE IN FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT DUSTING. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS
TO TAKE ON A DIFFERENT LOOK WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF WAVES BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WORK TO DEEPEN A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...WITH A WEST COAST
RIDGE. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TAF AIRFIELDS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS IA
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-90.
WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WORSENING CONDITIONS...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF
TAF AIRFIELDS BY 03.12Z...ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT GUSTS FROM 24 TO 30
KTS AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN BLSN AT KRST WITH THESE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AFTER
03.18Z WITH AN EXPECTANT SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ054-055-061.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     IAZ008>010-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     IAZ011-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...ROGERS



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