Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 302348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1004MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST
NE/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA. IMPRESSIVE CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT BAND OF SHOWERS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE JUST PASSING NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
FARTHER NORTH...PARTIAL SUN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN WI UNDER
THE CIRRUS CANOPY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 40S UNDER THE
RAIN SHOWER BAND...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI.
BRISK EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN/COOLER TEMPERATURES WAS PRODUCING A RATHER RAW DAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...STALLING
NEAR I-94 BEFORE FRONTOGENESIS SLOWLY WEAKENS AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND WEAKENS. THIS IN TURN DIMINISHES
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...BUT THEN MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL BY
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL SUFFER DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND  SHOWERS...TOPPING OFF IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE. SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH PULLS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCHED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS DUE TO COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL DEFINITELY AT LEAST SEE
SUBSTANTIAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
TUESDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A NICE INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
POTENTIAL HIGHER GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A LARGE
CLOSED LOW AND BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. THIS WOULD PUT US IN GENERAL COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CUMULUS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
THE LOWER 60S...SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RAIN BAND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRFIELDS PER 88D RADARS. LIFT
FOR THIS RAIN BAND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED UNTIL MORNING WHEN A DRIER LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF AIR WILL
OCCUR AND LIFTING CEILINGS. HOWEVER...SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL
FORM TO KEEP A BKN VFR CEILING IT APPEARS.

CEILINGS MAY LOWER A BIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE BEFORE DRY AIR TAKES
OVER. MVFR CIGS WERE INTRODUCED FOR A TIME AT KRST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON THIS OCCURRENCE.

WINDS GUSTS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT


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