Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 160857
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
356 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Complex incoming weather system. Resulting short term concern will
be some light snow accumulations/wintry mix tonight mainly north of
I-94.

Early morning water vapor/upper air analysis showing a trough/wave
of low pressure moving across western MT/ID. Already getting some
warm air advection cloud from this system west of the Mississippi
River. Otherwise, temperatures early on this morning are chilly,
ranging from the single digits to teens above zero.

We will continue to see increasing cloud cover today with a slight
chance of light rain this afternoon as warm air advection/isentropic
upglide increases ahead of this wave of low pressure moving into the
Northern Plains. Look fro highs today closer to normal in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

Tonight gets tricky as the wave of low pressure presses on through
the area. NAM model sounding shows mostly light snow across north
central WI going into this evening with a dusting to an inch then
transitioning to a wintry mix as we warm aloft and lose ice in the
cloud. Could get a bit slick on the roads north of I-94 with this
wintry mix along with the light snow accumulation expected across
Clark/Taylor counties. Headlines may be needed but will have the
dayshift assess further for the need.

Could be some lingering drizzle Friday morning as the trough of low
pressure pulls off to the east. By Friday afternoon into the
evening, could see a few showers across north central WI as colder
cyclonic flow produce steep low level lapse rates. Otherwise, milder
temperatures will be seen as highs top off in the 40s, and perhaps a
few lower 50s across far southwest WI.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Dry/milder conditions on tap for the weekend as a highly amplified
ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Plan on highs
Saturday in the upper 30s to the middle 40s and in the mid 40s to
middle 50s Sunday.

Rain chances return Sunday night as a cold front makes passage
through the area. Not mich chance in temperatures behind this weak
cold front with highs Monday expected to top off in the middle 40s
to lower 50s.

A bit of a cool down for Wednesday as flow aloft turns more
northwesterly. There will also be a slight chance of rain later
Wednesday west of the Mississippi River ahead of low pressure moving
into the Northern Plains. Otherwise...look for highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

A short wave trough will work across the region Thursday afternoon
and evening. This wave will be accompanied by some weak
frontogenesis in the 700-500 mb layer and 2 to 4 ubar/s of up glide
on the 290K isentropic surface. The concern is whether this will be
enough lift to saturate the column and allow some precipitation to
form. For now, confidence is not high that this will occur for
either airport with a better chance of this occurring over central
Wisconsin. There could be some sprinkles or a brief light rain
shower, but not enough to even include a VCSH at this point. Clouds
will increase Thursday with high VFR ceilings moving in during the
day. Once the warm front with this system goes through, the lower
levels could become saturated enough for MVFR ceilings to develop
Thursday night and then with increased moisture from the melting
snow, some fog will also be possible. Any visibility restrictions
from the fog should be after this forecast period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



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