Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 031730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVENTUAL EXIT OF THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM. MAIN THRUST OF HEAVY PRECIP IS WELL PAST THE
REGION...BUT THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION WAS STILL NEAR KDMX AT 07Z
PER RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS. THIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR KDBQ BY 12Z
AND TO NEAR KMKX BY 18Z. RADAR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC
DRIVEN DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CIRCULATION...AND ANTICIPATE THIS WILL TRACK RIGHT ALONG WITH IT.
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS WITH THIS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AND IT
COULD END UP DROPPING ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF
YESTERDAYS MESS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE SYSTEM...
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING ISSUES. BUT THE WET
NATURE OF THIS SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL BLOWING ISSUES.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THE
OVERALL IMPACT IS DIMINISHING SO WILL LET THE WARNING EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 AM. BY THAT TIME ROAD CREWS WILL BE OUT EN MASS TO
MITIGATE MOST TRAVEL TROUBLE.

SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF MN/IA LATE IN THE DAY. WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
STEADY OR EVEN FALL SOME DURING THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD
PROVIDE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. THAT QUICKLY MOVES
AWAY...BUT THE NEXT ONE IS DUE IN FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LIGHT DUSTING. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS
TO TAKE ON A DIFFERENT LOOK WITH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF WAVES BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WORK TO DEEPEN A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...WITH A WEST COAST
RIDGE. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT
WEEK. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE WINTER STORM CONTINUED TO EXIT THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE LAST OF THE SNOW /WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/ WAS COMING THRU
KRST AT 18Z...AND LOOKS TO BE EAST OF KLSE BY 20Z. CIGS IMPROVE
BEHIND THIS LAST BAND OF SNOW AS WELL WITH THE MVFR DECK BECOMING
SCT BEHIND IT...AND SKC OVER MUCH OF MN WEST OF A KMSP-KAEL LINE AS
OF 17Z. THIS IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH BLSN IN THE KRST AREA
ENDING. GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY THU MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SPREADS INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THRU THU
MORNING...WITH SOME 2500-3000 FT CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
KRST/KLSE AFTER 15Z. APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN OR SCT -
SHSN...WITH WHAT WOULD BE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....RRS


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