Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 271743
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For this afternoon and evening, a vigorous short wave trough,
currently located over southern Manitoba, will move southeast
across northern and eastern Wisconsin. While there are steep 900
to 700 mb lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km), soundings show a warm layer
between 700 and 500 mb. This may cap off any convection from even
developing. As a result, just kept a mention a slight chance of
showers in north-central and central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

From Friday into Tuesday, high pressure will be in control of the
area. With relatively dry air, abundant sunshine, and soils
drying out, expect the temperatures in the river valleys to climb
a few degrees higher than MOS. Meanwhile at night, the relatively
dry dew points (especially on Saturday and Sunday mornings) will
cause temperatures in central and north-central Wisconsin to fall
a few degrees cooler than guidance.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday, both the GFS and GEM have a cold
front moving through the region. Meanwhile the ECMWF does not have
this system moving through until Thursday. In all 3 models this is
a later trend, so there remains much uncertainty on the timing of
this system. Due to this kept the rain chances low. Regardless of
the timing, both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that the
CAPES are not impressive and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remain
weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

At 1730Z, visible satellite shows diurnal cumulus development
with bases around 4,000 to 6,000 ft. An upper level disturbance
approaching from the northwest could help sustain scattered clouds
into the evening. This disturbance could also produce isolated
showers later this afternoon and evening, but expecting this
activity to remain east of KLSE. Winds will be 5-10kt, shifting
from north/northwest to northeast throughout the day. If the SCT
mid-level clouds clear early enough this evening, valley fog could
develop overnight. Therefore, introduced a period of 4SM BR at
KLSE from 10-13Z. Despite lower confidence on cloud cover, local
guidance does suggest forecast dewpoint depressions and surface
winds will be somewhat favorable for valley fog.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...through Wednesday night
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A Flood Warning continues along the Kickapoo River at Steuben.
River levels at this site are expected to fall below flood stage
tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Hollan
HYDROLOGY...Boyne



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