Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 011358
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR INLAND WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER AT AROUND 7000 FT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO THE WEST TO MAKE A BRIEF VFR CIG POSSIBLE. THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 FT...BUT WITH LESS
COVERAGE...MAKING A LOW VFR CIG LESS LIKELY. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BACK
TO NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRIER AIR INLAND FROM A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
COAST WILL NOT SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT 7000 FT...AND
SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST THE SW NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ERODE THOSE CIGS...AND THE MODELS
SHOW THE CLOUD LAYER LOWERING TO 6000 AND DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE TO NW
TODAY...BEFORE VEERING BACK TO N OR NE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT



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