Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 181446
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO SOME OF THE
REGION. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS WITHIN POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SENSIBLE WX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE LIMITED JUST TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED LOW END
WNW WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH TYPICAL MID-OCTOBER MAX TEMPERATURES.

TEMPORARILY WANING UPSLOPE NC MTN STRATOCU WILL EXPAND AGAIN AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AS EXPANSIVE CAA LOW CLOUDS ADVECT SE. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS WILL BE FORCED BY THE NW
FLOW.

AS OF 645 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FUSS. NW/UPSLOPE FLOW
STRATOCU WILL LINGER NEAR THE TENN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...
BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT MID-AUTUMN MORNING AWAITS...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE EARLY 60S IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BY NOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...ONE PASSING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORN
BELT. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FEATURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
CONTINUATION OF SCT-BKN NW/UPSLOPE FLOW STRATOCU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY NEAR THE TENN BORDER...BUT
CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS NW FLOW MOISTURE IS ENHANCED BY
THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY
STRONG NW FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 800 MB SUPPORTS
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. BY THE TIME ANY
SHOWERS COME TO AN END...A PERIOD OF RIME ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG/NEAR THE TENN BORDER...WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN COLD
ADVECTION REGIME...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE NEAR
NORMAL MAXES...FOLLOWED BY MINS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...BENEATH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE...A DOME OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THICKNESSES INCH UP SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IMPLIED BY THE PATTERN...THOUGH
IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OFFSET THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THUS
MINS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LIGHT FROST IS POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS MON MRNG.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN IMPENDING TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING LOW POPS TO THE MTNS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LLVL WAA IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...FROM TUESDAY THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PRONOUNCED
TROUGH WHICH THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE WILL CLOSE OFF EARLY WED.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS. CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND
THOUGH SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE SHOWN CIRCULATING IT AND OVER OUR
CWFA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AND
SEEMINGLY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WHILE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THRU TUE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS STILL
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO. LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN OUR NORTH WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS MOST PLENTIFUL WITH THE FRONT. A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY WED.  THIS WILL BRING TEMPS A BIT BELOW CLIMO FOR WED
AND THU AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SEASONABLE FROST-FREEZE
CONCERNS FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
TO END THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND HEIGHTS RISE FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A VFR FORECAST WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING...TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE W OR
W/NW AT 6-10 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KAVL. NC MTN
UPSLOPE STRATOCU WILL DECREASE SOME THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWER POSSIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY OR SO. APART FROM PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY EACH
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   61%     LOW   45%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CSH/JDL






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