


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
906 FXUS62 KGSP 061749 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 149 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical cyclone Chantal will continue to weaken as it moves across the mid Atlantic states away from our region tonight and Monday. Hot and more humid conditions will return on Monday and linger through midweek featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. The heat abates somewhat into the weekend but daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM: Per sfc obs and radar imagery TD Chantal would appear to be centered just west of Lumberton, NC, and we should remain on the western periphery of the storm through evening. The outer rain bands have so far struggled to move into our CWA, with a sharp reflectivity gradient having remained near the Yadkin and Pee Dee rivers, similar to what CAM consensus had begun to suggest last night. PoPs reflect a tight gradient as well, with 70-90% PoP east of I-77 tapering down to a chance for the lower Catawba River, with unmentionably low values now across the middle of the CWA. There remains some consistency among CAMs in developing isolated showers/storms near the SW Blue Ridge Escarpment and propagating them south into the Savannah Valley, so a mention is made there as well. Impacts from the locally heavier rain amounts along our eastern border probably will remain nuisance-level. Gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected in the I-77 corridor thru the afternoon. Temps appear on track to be as much as 10 below normal this aftn in that area, with values at or slightly below normal in our west. Chantal will weaken as it drifts northward thru central NC tonight. Winds will back and gradually diminish, becoming light NW across the CWA by the wee hours Monday. The remaining high altitude cloud cover will also diminish. Despite these conditions fog is not expected due to large dewpoint depressions. During the day Monday, low to midlevel winds will be mainly west to northwest, setting us up for some degree of downslope flow; surface winds will return to the SW for the most part. Accordingly very warm temperatures are forecast with highs largely in the mid-90s in the Piedmont; some locations in the Savannah Valley reach the upper 90s, and the major mountain valleys will top out near 90. Deep mixing is expected, which coupled with downslope flow is expected to bring afternoon dewpoints low enough to keep heat index from rising much above 100. Dry profiles aloft and deep mixing suggest only widely scattered diurnal convection over the mountains and foothills. Where convection does fire, weak shear and the dry midlevels should support an isolated dry microburst and perhaps localized wind damage as a result. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM Sunday: Mid and upper level ridging will strengthen atop the SE CONUS to start off the period as llvl sw flow advects hot air into the region. Solid middle 90s are progged again for Tuesday`s maximums with apparent temperatures possibly reaching into the lower 100s. The axis of the warmest air will start to be displaced on Wednesday but essentially it close to a persistence fcst as far as max temperatures go, another afternoon of middle 90s. Despite pretty typical diurnal tstm cvrg, there is possibility for a few strong to severe storms on Tuesday, especially along and east of developing sfc trough. As Miss/Ohio Valley energy begins to ride eastward and upper heights nudge downward, there is the potential for diurnally enhanced showers and storms to become numerous regionwide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Sunday: Temperatures will pull back to around climo as a wavy flow sets up atop the region during the latter half of the work week. Given the seasonably rich moisture in place, pretty much either day there is the possibility of locally excessive rain or isolated severe storms, even outside of peak heating due to the potential for subtle energy to ripple through the aforementioned wavy pattern. There is certainly no indication that the atmosphere will suppressed in any way next weekend with little overall change in the mean pattern expected. Daily temperatures still around climo with likely probabilities for showers and storms each day. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Gusty winds this aftn on the periphery of Chantal at the NC sites and perhaps occasionally at the SC sites. Precip is now mentioned only in PROB30 at KCLT, and chances are unmentionably low elsewhere. Cigs near MVFR-VFR threshold at issuance time at KCLT/KHKY but a gradual lifting trend is expected thru the rest of the aftn. Gusts subside by evening, with winds diminishing and backing by morning. Dry enough that fog is unlikely to form tonight despite the light winds and clearing skies. Low VFR cu developing diurnally but mixing up to 050-070 by afternoon. Chance of precip at KAVL after 18z, otherwise looking dry. Outlook: More typical summertime weather returns Monday night and Tuesday and continues into late week, with sct SHRA/TSRA mainly in the aftn/ evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...Wimberley SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...Wimberley