Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KGSP 240552
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY RETURN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE A
SFC HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GORGEOUS
DAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SET UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
INCREASE IN STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE USUAL
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN USA...AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS.
THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES AND DEAMPLIFIES SUCH THAT BY MONDAY THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST...AND A RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM BETWEEN THE PLAINS AND THE
MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...ON SUNDAY EVENING DRY HIGH PRESSURE BE OFF THE
EAST COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PROGRESSES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS SLOWS...SUCH THAT BY TUESDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH OVER THE OH AND POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS...AND THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN TX. MOIST INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
AREA...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM SATURDAY...ON TUESDAY EVENING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER
HE MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SUCH THAT BY THURSDAY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH TROUGHS AMPLIFYING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN USA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING NEAR INTERSTATE 40 BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHILE MOIST GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PERSISTS OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN TX. THE EASTERN FRONT
MOVES NORTH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE WESTERN FRONT REACHES THE MS
RIVER VALLEY....AND A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES GULF
INFLOW AS IT SPREAD EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD THE FRONT REDUCED MOIST INFLOW
INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT DROPS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT TO
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD...SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT N TO NE THRU ABOUT NOON...THEN SWITCH TO SE TO S THIS
AFTN. OTHER THAT OCCASIONAL THIN WISPS OF CIRRUS...EXPECT SKC.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...ARK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.