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000
FXUS63 KICT 060857
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2563

LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM ALBERTA DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE COLD
AIR EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2563

SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGHER SNOW RATES WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE SOME BETTER FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE SITUATED.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE KS
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW FALLING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH SOME SUN EVEN LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE LOWS BEING AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL KS.

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON SAT AND WILL START TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SAT
INTO SUN. THE DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUN. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AS IT SEEMS
LIKE WHEN RELYING ON WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE
PRECIP...IT TYPICALLY TO TAKE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TO SATURATE
THE LOW LAYERS. SO OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL KS WHICH MAY
SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES...FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
BETWEEN A DUSTING AND A FEW TENTHS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE FREEZING MARK NOT LIKELY TO BE
REACHED FOR EITHER SAT OR SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2563

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK. ONE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON MORNING WITH ANOTHER ONE ON ITS HEALS. THE
MAIN EFFECT THESE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS IT IS RIGHT NOW...HIGHS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE ALSO
REMAINS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANY WINTER PRECIP EVENTS
THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU DEC 5 2563

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SOME TRANSIENT
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE "HEAVIER" SNOW
BANDS. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES TOWARD EVENING.

MWM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20   3  21  12 /  10   0  10  30
HUTCHINSON      18   3  21  10 /  10   0  10  40
NEWTON          19   1  19  11 /  10   0  10  40
ELDORADO        21   4  20  13 /  20   0   0  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   21   3  22  15 /  30   0  10  30
RUSSELL         17  -2  21   8 /   0   0  10  50
GREAT BEND      17  -1  21   9 /  10   0  10  40
SALINA          19   0  21  11 /  10   0  10  50
MCPHERSON       19   0  20  11 /  10   0  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     21   3  18  17 /  60   0   0  30
CHANUTE         21   2  20  14 /  50   0   0  40
IOLA            21   2  20  12 /  50   0   0  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21   3  20  14 /  60   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ096-098>100.

&&

$$