Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250510
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Latest trends in the RAP/HRRR continue to support the forecast
thesis of low-topped, strong to severe convection potential late
this afternoon/early evening across south central/southeast
Kansas. The NAM/RAP may also have the right idea in backing the
surface flow and advecting higher surface dew points a bit further
west across parts of south central Kansas between 21-00z. This
supports SBCAPE values of 1200-1500 j/kg with low level (0-3km)
CAPE values over 225 j/kg. So all facets of severe weather will
remain possible in the potential cold-core setup as the near
northeast quad of the upper low affects the area through early
this evening. Scattered to numerous showers can be expected
tonight into Saturday morning within the back edge of the
deformation zone and wrap-around precip to the north and northwest
of the eastward migrating upper low. Its rather slow northeast
departure across Missouri through Saturday supports holding on to
low to modest PoPs across southeast Kansas through much of the
day. After a brief respite late Saturday into early Sunday, the
next upper trof will move into the area late Sunday through early
Monday. The modest moisture return will be sufficient given the
progged transient lift across the area for scattered showers and a
few storms over southern Kansas. After some morning precip
chances Monday, dry weather is expected in the afternoon.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Another upper trof will dig south across California
early next week and into a closed low across the southwest CONUS.
This system still looks to move east across the central and
southern Plains by mid-week, providing the area with more precip
chances.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Combo of IFR-MVFR ceilings with patchy SHRA will be the rule for
the rest of the night. MVFR should be the rule thru the morning
and most of the afternoon, with some clearing working into
KRSL/KGBD/KHUT late in the afternoon and KICT around sunset.
Appears unlikely that KSLN/KCNU would clear during this forecast
period. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect much of the
area this evening into the overnight hours before ending early on
Saturday. Gusty winds this evening ahead of and behind a cold
front will keep grassland fire danger very high in rain-free
areas. Fire danger is expected to be only moderate to high the
next several days with a good chance for showers again late
Sunday into early Monday. These rains should provide decent
green-up across the area as we head into next week.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  59  42  72 /  30  20   0  30
Hutchinson      43  58  40  70 /  50  10   0  30
Newton          42  56  41  69 /  40  20   0  30
ElDorado        43  57  42  71 /  60  30   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   43  61  42  74 /  30  20   0  30
Russell         40  58  38  66 /  20  10   0  30
Great Bend      42  60  38  66 /  20   0   0  30
Salina          42  56  40  67 /  50  20   0  20
McPherson       42  56  39  69 /  50  20   0  30
Coffeyville     49  60  44  74 /  60  50   0  30
Chanute         46  58  43  72 /  70  60  10  20
Iola            47  57  43  71 /  70  60  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    48  59  44  73 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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