Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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822
FXUS63 KICT 040544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG CYCLONE THAT HAD BEEN THE "STAR OF THE
SHOW" THE PAST 2 DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO &
WAS FAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC BORDER. A
STRONG/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG & JUST E OF
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BETWEEN THE 2
CHARACTERS...A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT SCOOTS SE TOWARD KS. DOWNSTAIRS...NW 15-25 MPH
WINDS HAVE POSSESSED A SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 35-40F IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN
THE NW SECTOR OF THE CWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LIMITING TEMPS IN
RUSSELL & BARTON COUNTIES TO ~30F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

TONIGHT-FRI:
THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING KS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT SURGES SE TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THU AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT`LL DEVELOP
OVER MT & ID THU AFTERNOON LIKEWISE STRENGTHENS QUICKLY AS IT TOO
SURGES SE. THE RAPIDLY-STRENGTHENING UPPER-DECK WAVE SHOULD CROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN
PLAINS FRI MORNING. ON THU A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALBERTA/
MT BORDER & SPRINT SE...CROSSING ND & SD ON FRI. SUFFICIENT LOWER-
DECK MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE N INTO CENTRAL & ESPECIALLY EASTERN KS
AHEAD OF A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EAST
OF THE TRUNPIKE FRI EVENING. AS THE FRONT VENTURES ACROSS EAST &
SOUTHEAST KS...A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIXTURE WOULD OCCUR VERY LATE FRI NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE PATTERN WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AS WLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SW ON FRI.

SAT & SAT NIGHT:
THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SFC TROFFING ENSUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT`LL CROSS THE PACIFIC NW COAST SAT MORNING
THEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AFTERNOON. SAT`S HIGHS WOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER WITH MID-UPPER 40S TICKETED FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN & ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE GREAT PLAINS IN A VERY
STRONG NW REGIME THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING AN ARCTIC
BLAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS & UPPER MS VALLEY...HOWEVER THE
MS VALLEY WOULD BY FAR CATCH THE BRUNT OF THIS ARCTIC INVASION. AS
SUCH AN E-W TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WOULD SET UP ACROSS KICT COUNTRY.
WITH THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE SWD THRUST OF THE ARCTIC
INVASION (GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE) HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED TEMPS
INTACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LIGHT W OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW MID MORNING TOMORROW. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  46  25  48 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      17  44  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          18  44  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        19  46  25  48 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  27  50 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  37  17  39 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      15  41  20  42 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          16  40  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       17  43  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     19  47  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         19  46  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            19  46  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  47  27  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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