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000
FXUS63 KICT 192308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS ACROSS RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON EASTER DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO
RISE INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED REGIME.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH NICKEL TO PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING   . THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15-18Z ON MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE PAC FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS COULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO
RECOVER AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OF
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  75  58  73 /  10  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      57  75  57  75 /  20  60  60  10
NEWTON          57  74  57  70 /  10  60  60  50
ELDORADO        58  74  58  71 /  10  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  75  59  74 /  10  60  60  30
RUSSELL         57  76  57  72 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      56  75  55  74 /  20  60  50  10
SALINA          61  78  59  75 /  10  60  60  30
MCPHERSON       58  75  57  73 /  10  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  77  61  75 /  10  60  70  60
CHANUTE         56  77  60  74 /  10  60  70  60
IOLA            56  76  60  72 /  10  60  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    56  77  62  74 /  10  60  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$