Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221720
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Forecast highlights: excessive heat through Saturday or Sunday
with increasing storm chances especially by Sunday night and
continuing off-and-on through next week.

Extended the excessive heat warning for all areas through
Saturday, with afternoon through early evening heat indices in the
105-110 degree range once again the next few days. Stiff southerly
winds should create some relief from the heat both today and
Saturday. Some questions on the magnitude of the heat Sunday, as
the upper ridge breaks down some, along with the uncertainty
regarding frontal boundary placement and potential clouds.
Therefore decided to hold off on extending heat headlines through
Sunday, but later shifts may need to consider especially if it
appears the front will remain north of the region.

Thunderstorm chances should remain mostly west/northwest of the
region today and Saturday, in the vicinity of the Central High
Plains lee trough. Some of this activity could possibly get into
central/north-central Kansas this evening and tonight, mainly
northwest of Great Bend to Lincoln. Slightly greater storm
probabilities may arrive generally northwest of the KS Turnpike
Saturday evening/night as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, in response to shortwave energy progressing along the
USA/Canadian border. As low-level high pressure continues to
impinge from the north, acting to enhance frontal forcing,
thinking thunderstorm chances should increase from the north
Sunday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Next week has the look of being periodically active thunderstorm-
wise, as the overall medium range model consensus supports
continued flattening and retrograding of the upper ridge. This
would allow the jet stream to shift south closer to the region,
supporting a wobbly quasi-stationary frontal zone across Mid-
America. Consequently, we may be getting back into a somewhat wet
pattern for portions of the Central Plains, along with
temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites throughout the period.
Lee trough will provide some diurnal, southerly wind gusts of
20-24 knots this afternoon before speeds drop off this evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorms over northwestern Kansas may
continue sporadically through tonight within the mid-upper level
monsoonal moisture plume, evident on water vapor channel. Small
chance this convection could develop as far south as
RSL...GBD...SLN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   105  77 102  77 /  10   0  10  10
Hutchinson     105  77 104  77 /  10  10  10  20
Newton         102  77 101  77 /  10   0  10  10
ElDorado       101  76 100  77 /  10   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD  102  77 101  77 /   0   0   0  10
Russell        105  77 104  74 /  20  20  10  30
Great Bend     105  77 104  75 /  20  10  10  30
Salina         106  79 105  77 /  10  10  10  20
McPherson      105  77 104  77 /  10  10  10  20
Coffeyville     99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            99  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    99  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC


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