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000
FXUS63 KICT 090148
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

CLEARING IS MUCH MORE RAPID THAN EXPECTED EARLIER...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS AND ALSO QUICKER TEMPERATURE
DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND LOWERED MINS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

SUN NIGHT:
APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS BUT SECOND AREA WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS DUE TO GRAZING SHOT OF SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MON-MON NIGHT:
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN RAMPING UP WAVE MOVING THROUGH
MON/MON EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY ON MON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKING PRETTY DECENT
IMMEDIATELY ALONG OK BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OK
BORDER...WITH AMOUNTS RAPIDLY FALLING OFF TO THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME EARLY AND STABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LIGHT
AMOUNTS...BUT DEEP ISOTHERMAL SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND RESPECTABLE
DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION. NO HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT
WARMUP MON AND TEMPER LOWS MON NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS.

TUE-WED:
MODEST WARMUP APPEARS LIKELY FOR TUE DUE TO GOOD INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WED. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WED DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION DESPITE FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ON AT LEAST THU STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK. REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD IS LESS CERTAIN. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ABILITY TO HANDLE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. A LOT IS RIDING ON THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS SUPPOSE
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ITS SUBSEQUENT TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BOTH BEEN ERRATIC WITH KEY
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. IF IT CLOSES OFF...AND THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE CURRENTLY FAVORED OUTCOME...BELIEVE THAT ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY EITHER GFS/ECMWF. THIS WOULD
PUSH ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER THAN WHAT WAS FORCED TO BE
INCLUDED BY CONSENSUS THIS CYCLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO
PROBLEMATIC. 1200 UTC ECMWF HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT COOLER ALOFT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT REGARDLESS...ALL WOULD SUGGEST SOME SORT
OF WINTRY MIX. AT FACE VALUE...THICKNESSES WOULD FAVOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...PLAN IS TO DOWNPLAY THIS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL VACATE THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
IN THE WAKE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE
VALID EXPIRATION TIME.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  21  12  37 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      10  20  10  36 /   0  10  10   0
NEWTON          10  20  11  37 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        13  21  12  36 /   0  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   15  23  13  35 /   0  20  30   0
RUSSELL          2  18   8  36 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND       5  19  10  37 /   0  10  10   0
SALINA           6  19  11  37 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON        9  19  11  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     17  25  13  33 /  10  10  50   0
CHANUTE         15  23  13  35 /  10  10  30   0
IOLA            16  23  13  35 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    16  24  11  34 /  10  10  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$