


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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664 FXUS63 KICT 291122 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms likely for tonight and a few of them could produce damaging to possible significant damaging downburst winds over central Kansas, heavy rainfall is also a concern overnight - A dry weather pattern with slightly cooler than normal temperatures looks to take shape beginning Monday afternoon and persisting through Wednesday - Next chance of storms could affect the region Friday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Latest analysis is showing a healthy low level jet/strong moisture transport focusing lift over eastern Kansas into Missouri where scattered to numerous elevated showers/storms have developed. Some of this activity could linger a bit over southeast Kansas throughout the morning hours. Meanwhile current satellite analysis shows an upper level wave moving eastward over southern Alberta Canada/Montana. This upper level wave will then progress southeast across the Dakotas tonight and push a frontal boundary southward from Nebraska into Kansas later this evening. Thunderstorms will erupt along the front this afternoon/evening with a very unstable airmass in place. The storms will become more numerous as the night goes on with low level jet/moisture transport being focused into the frontal boundary. A southeast moving forward propagating MCS is likely to develop near the nose of low level jet which looks to be mainly over northeast Kansas, however still expect lots of trailing convection over central Kansas along the frontal boundary. VERY high DCAPE values from a stout inverted-V sounding profile with near 100 degree temps over central Kansas supports damaging to possible significant downburst wind potential with winds over 80mph. The activity will spread southeast as the night goes on with the severe weather risk gradually lessening. Heavy rainfall is also another concern with higher than normal precipitable water values. The showers/storms begin to taper off during the morning hours on Monday as the frontal boundary pushes southward into Oklahoma. A dry weather pattern with slightly cooler than normal temperatures will setup over Kansas for Tuesday-Thursday. Surface high pressure builds over the area for Tuesday followed by upper level high pressure Wednesday-Thursday. The humidity will lessen for Tuesday and Wednesday as drier air overspreads Kansas behind Monday`s frontal passage. Next chance of storms could be on Friday/Friday night with returning moisture and longer range models showing a fairly healthy upper level wave moving eastward across the central plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Showers and storms have been affecting locations east of southeast Kansas early this morning. Could still see a few storms develop and possibly affect CNU site this morning, but the higher confidence is for storms to ignite along the cold front later today. This activity is expected to move into central Kansas either late this afternoon or evening with damaging to potentially significant damaging downburst winds. Expecting the storms to become more numerous at night and spread southeast across the entire area. We introduced PROB30s for timing of storms moving into the area. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...CDJ