National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KICT 040856
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S
TODAY...WITH POTENTIALLY 40S FOR AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NOW SNOW ON
GROUND. LIGHT/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MOST PROBABLE
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BEFORE ABOUT 3-4 AM. THINKING THE NAM
IS MOST DEFINITELY OVERDOING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH. THE
FOG COULD BE PATCHY DENSE BEFORE THICK MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS DECENT...AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION...SO ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY THINKING VERTICAL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH COULD MIX WITH RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. ALL-IN-
ALL...THINKING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH
ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL THERMAL FIELDS THOUGH...WILL
HEDGE TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW. ANTICIPATING RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S-50S THURSDAY...AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES SOME ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN KS COULD STILL
REACH THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS HAS LATCHED ONTO
A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING MID-AMERICA
FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT-- SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...WHILE WE ARE STILL
THINKING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT--
SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR A BIG WINTER STORM IS DECREASING OVER
THE KS REGION. AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...ANTICIPATING WARMING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE. BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG OR
GROUND FOG DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. SO WILL GO WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 10-12Z FOR THIS CHANCE. MODELS NOT HANDLING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VERY WELL...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE AREA. SO THINK NEARLY SATURATED MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE OVERDONE. BUT WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND SOME
MINOR SNOW MELT...THINK SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE. SO
AT LEAST WORTH A MENTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON TUE.

MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL ON TUE AFTERNOON. BUT AGAIN THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVERDONE...SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK FOR NOW.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SNOW MELT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TUE EVE. THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER FOG
SIGNAL...SO WILL GO WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOG FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR
TUE EVE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS....AS SOME IFR FOG VSBYS
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

RELATIVELY LOW FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DUE TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LACK OF STRONG
WINDS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  24  37  19 /   0   0  50  10
HUTCHINSON      38  25  36  19 /   0  10  50   0
NEWTON          37  24  37  19 /   0  10  50   0
ELDORADO        37  23  38  18 /   0   0  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  23  37  19 /   0   0  50  10
RUSSELL         45  25  36  21 /   0  30  50   0
GREAT BEND      41  26  35  21 /   0  20  50   0
SALINA          41  25  36  18 /   0  20  50   0
MCPHERSON       37  25  36  17 /   0  10  50   0
COFFEYVILLE     36  20  38  21 /   0   0  50  40
CHANUTE         37  21  39  20 /   0   0  50  30
IOLA            38  23  39  22 /   0   0  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    36  21  38  20 /   0   0  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$