Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Warm advection/moisture transport has led to a large area of light
rain over most of the southern half of KS early this morning.
Locations continue to report freezing rain and glazing on elevated
surfaces including trees/power lines, but ground remains just wet as
surface temps hover near 31 or 32. Mosaic radar shows this large
area of rain was mainly moving E-NE but latest trends beginning to
suggest that rain over NW OK and the panhandle of OK, is moving more
to the NE. This looks reasonable with diffluent flow across the
region early today ahead of the main upper low currently over NW
Mexico. As the diffluent flow/lift continues across the forecast
area, expect the area of rain/freezing rain, to gradually lift to
the NE early today as moisture transport/warm advection continues.

With temps hovering at 30-32 degrees across southern KS, think most
of the ice accumulations in the widespread rain area will be to
trees/power lines and elevated surfaces. Still could see some
locations get ice accumulations of a tenth to three tenths of an
inch (including the Wichita Metro), but think the threat to frozen
roadways has diminished across southern KS. As the precip area lifts
NE later this morning, think ice accumulations across Central KS may
still range from a quarter to a half an inch, with surface temps
around 30 degrees and dewpoint temps in the middle 20s. Could see
temps in this area actually drop into the upper 20s for a few hours
this morning, as rain moving in, drops temps down to their wet bulb

The nrn Mexico shortwave will take on more of a negative tilt as it
moves northeast into the srn plains by this evening, with the
northern plains surface high (and cold advection that has been
plaguing us) pushing off to the east. This will lead to surface
temps across most of srn KS, finally modifying and warming with
daytime hours this afternoon climbing into the upper 30s.

This will lead to the freezing rain coming to end for areas south of
highway 50 by the afternoon hours.  The colder air across Central KS
will be more stubborn to get rid of, as most of wrn KS begins to see
the influence of the approaching shortwave in the srn plains, with
cold advection getting dragged south across wrn KS. So could see
the freezing rain chances linger NW of a Great Bend to Lincoln.

Plan on "staying the course" when it comes to the current Ice storm
headlines, but plan on adjusting some of the ice accumulation totals
down some, with trees and power lines now being the most likely
accumulation locations.  Will also tone down the dire wording when
it comes to extended power outages, with sporadic power outages
more common.

As this shortwave lifts north late this evening and overnight,
models still suggest another round of widespread rain showers
(possibly even some heavy rainfall) to move across the forecast area
for late tonight through early Mon.  As this secondary round of
showers moves north, the saving grace will be most locations will
remain above freezing, given the strong warm advection associated
with the system.  Will have keep an eye on this rainfall chance, as
frozen streams/ground may lead to lots of runoff and some possible
localized flooding.

Latest model solutions suggest that the shortwave will finally lift
NE of the area by Monday afternoon, with possibly some lingering
showers for the daytime hours on Mon. Expect the warming trend on
the eastern side of this system to continue on Mon as well, with
most of ern KS climbing into the lower 50s. Will have to keep an eye
on Central Ks for Mon, as wraparound cold air and precip may lead to
rain/freezing rain, changing over to sleet and possibly even some
light snow before it finally ends.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Medium range models suggest well above normal temps for the middle
of the week, as most of the plains gets into a downslope flow
regime. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a rather progressive pattern for
the end of the week, with a weak system potentially affecting the
area for Thursday night a potentially more substantial upper system
by Saturday-Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on next weekends
system, as both medium range models pull in some colder air into the
system, which may produce a mixed bag of precip.



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Widespread areas of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, rain and
drizzle will impact the region the next 24 hours, along with IFR
to possibly LIFR conditions persisting, as a powerful storm system
approaches from the southwest. Temperatures will gradually warm
from south to north today, switching precipitation type over to
all rain/drizzle, although freezing precipitation should linger
through much of the period for Great Bend and Russell. Areas of
moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will spread
north across the region this evening and overnight, with possibly
freezing rain continuing at Russell and Great Bend.


Wichita-KICT    38  36  45  29 /  90  90  50  10
Hutchinson      35  33  39  28 / 100  90  60  10
Newton          36  33  43  27 /  90  90  60  10
ElDorado        38  35  47  29 /  90  90  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   42  39  48  29 /  80  90  50  10
Russell         31  28  35  25 / 100  90  80  20
Great Bend      32  29  35  25 / 100  90  70  20
Salina          33  31  38  27 /  90  90  70  20
McPherson       34  32  39  27 / 100  90  70  10
Coffeyville     45  42  58  33 /  80  80  60  10
Chanute         41  38  55  32 /  80  90  70  10
Iola            39  37  54  32 /  80  90  70  10
Parsons-KPPF    45  42  57  32 /  80  90  70  10


Ice Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ051>053-067>072-

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>050.



SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.