Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231136
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Surface high pressure over the northern/central Plains today, will
gradually shift eastward out of the region tonight. Weak lee
troughing will develop over the High Plains for Thursday into
Friday, with winds veering to south-southeasterly. Low-level
moisture/instability return is progged from Thursday into Friday, on
the backside of the departing surface high, in the vicinity of the
lee trough axis. Mid-level shortwave energy is also progged to move
out of Colorado across the central Plains late Thursday into Friday.
Scattered clusters of thunderstorms will be possible, mainly over
the High Plains into Nebraska, as the mid-level energy is
expected to eventually outrun the moisture/instability axis. The
wave should bring some increase in cloud cover to most of the
area. Otherwise, temperatures are indicated to be slightly below
seasonal normals through Friday.

Most medium range models (GFS,ECMWF,GEM) along with the HMON and
HWRF hurricane models, indicate that Harvey`s remnants will
restrengthen into a strong tropical cyclone, possibly a hurricane,
by Thursday night in the western Gulf. The tropical cyclone is
progged to reach the south Texas coast late Friday, anywhere from
South Padre Island to Port O`Connor. The system is expected to slow
down after landfall over south Texas. The models show large
variances beyond Friday night leading to increased uncertainty the
the cyclone track.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Shortwave troughing is progged to amplify as it tracks from
southwestern Canada into the northern Plains and upper Midwest
from Saturday night into Monday. Meanwhile, upper level ridging
will build over the western United States. A cold front should
accompany the aforementioned upper trough, however, it appears
rain chances will remain marginal (15-30%) in the forecast area from
Saturday through Monday, largely due to circulation around the
tropical system over the Gulf Coast impeding the flow of rich
moisture northward into the central Plains. Near to slightly below
average temperatures can be expected during this medium range
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

It`ll be "Clear Sailing" across the KS neighborhood thru early Fri
morning & likely beyond with E-SE winds up to ~10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      85  58  85  64 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          83  58  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   83  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         86  59  87  64 /   0   0   0  20
Great Bend      85  59  86  65 /   0   0   0  20
Salina          86  58  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       84  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     82  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         81  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            80  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    82  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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