Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251957
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main issue with this time frame will be the chances for
precipitation.

A low pressure center is currently located in far SW KS with a
cold front extending to the NW. This front will slowly drop to the
SE overnight. Plenty of moisture is present over the area as noted
with mid 60 to low 70 dewpoints. The amount of forcing seems to be
the limiting factor at this time for a more widespread
precipitation event. Therefore, I will keep the higher chances in
the vicinity of the front. The front will continue to slide SE on
Sunday. With a very moist atmosphere and plenty of surface heating
afternoon storms are possible. The better chances will be south of
highway 56. CAPE values along the KS/OK border are well above 3K,
so severe storms are possible. The nam does try to blow up an MCV
Sunday evening and moving due east. If this develops, which at
this time seems unlikely, very heavy rains would occur.
Temperatures during this period will be near normal for all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The main issue will once again be precipitation chances during the
period. Tuesday night through Wednesday the region will experience
that pesky NW flow. Several PV waves will slide SE across the area
and combine with the continued moist environment to trigger the
overnight storms. Main threat will be very heavy rains. Another
front will lift north towards the OK/KS border. This will once
again produce enough lift to keep the chance for precipitation in
the forecast, mainly across the southern half of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
However, periods of MVFR and even brief periods of IFR expected in
convection along a southeastward sagging cold front late today and
tonight across central Kansas. South winds will remain gusty this
afternoon ahead of the front with a shift to a northeast wind
later this evening and tonight behind the front across central
Kansas. Chances for convection will remain much lower across
southern Kansas until toward the end of the valid period late
Sunday morning or thereafter.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  90  70  90 /  50  40  50  20
Hutchinson      73  89  69  89 /  50  40  30  20
Newton          73  90  70  89 /  60  40  40  20
ElDorado        74  91  70  89 /  50  50  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   75  91  70  89 /  50  50  50  30
Russell         68  87  67  90 /  70  20  20  10
Great Bend      68  87  67  90 /  60  30  20  20
Salina          72  87  68  91 /  60  30  20  20
McPherson       72  88  69  90 /  50  40  30  20
Coffeyville     73  93  73  88 /  20  40  50  40
Chanute         73  92  72  89 /  30  50  50  40
Iola            73  91  72  88 /  40  50  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    74  93  72  88 /  30  40  50  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...KED


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