Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 062008
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE PROBABILITIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE WILL OFFER ONE MORE DAY OF PROTECTION AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WAS NEEDED TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY WITH MAXS WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL CLIMO ACCOMPANUED BY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH
COULD IMPACT FAR WESTION PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...IE BARTON
AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH IS IN THE SPIRIT OF THE
GOING FORECAST.

THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRY-LINE. THIS MAY ALLOW FESTERING
OR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY ALONG EAST OF THE TURNPIKE
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORM
INITIATION LOOKS BETTER FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON JUST
EAST OF THE DRY-LINE. CONFIDENCE ON ITS PLACEMENT IS STILL
RELATIVLELY LOW NEAR PEAK HEATING...THOUGH MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN
JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOW FAR WEST THAT EARLY DAY
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LATE DAY AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE...THOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS OR GREATER STILL
SUPPORTS SEVERE RISK GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK WANING
TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  CAPES LOOK TO RISE CLOSE TO 4000
J/KG FOR THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT AS GOOD WITH
THE STRONGER VALUES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND WILL PUSH THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
MOVING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

METZGER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AROUND SUNSET. INSERTED LLWS
AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL FOR ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 06Z AS
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  85  60  79 /   0  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      57  86  59  79 /   0  10  30  40
NEWTON          56  85  59  78 /   0  10  30  40
ELDORADO        56  85  60  78 /   0  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  85  60  78 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         58  86  55  81 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      57  86  55  81 /  10  20  40  50
SALINA          57  86  59  79 /   0  10  50  40
MCPHERSON       56  86  59  79 /   0  10  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     54  84  61  78 /   0   0  20  30
CHANUTE         55  84  60  77 /   0   0  20  30
IOLA            55  84  60  75 /   0   0  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    54  84  60  77 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK



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