Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT.

THE SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OUT IN WESTERN KS ARE LIFTING
MOSTLY NORTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE OR CLOSE TO 06Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ELEVATED CAPE LOOKS TO BE IN THE 300-600J/KG
RANGE WITH ABOUT 20KTS OF SHEAR ABOVE 1KM. SO NOT THINKING SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE THAT HIGH WITH HAIL UP TO NICKELS THE MAIN THREAT.
THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE STORM OVER NORTHEAST DDC`S AREA WHICH
HAS A SMALL CHANCE TO CLIP RUSSELL COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO DOUBT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
HALF DOLLAR-SIZED CONTINUE TO GARNER THE GREATEST ATTENTION. WITH
A BROAD UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PARKED
OVER CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT`LL SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO A DEEP TROF. SUCH AN UPPER-FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP KS BENEATH A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW THRU SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KS TO WEST TX WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL) ALONG 6 KM BULK OF
40-50KTS REMAIN STRONGEST. SUCH A DEEP FLOW REGIME IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE MOVING VERY
LITTLE THRU SAT HAVE ASSIGNED HIGHEST POPS TO CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING
IN AN WEST-EAST MANNER AS A SERIES OF MID-UPPER DECK VORT LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE CYCLONE AND EJECT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATER
TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER-DECK CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT. WITH THE ATTENDANT UPPER-DECK WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO GET FORCED EAST...REACHING THE EAST COAST SAT
NIGHT. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
STORMS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EAST TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE DEEP UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS
KS ON SUN AND WITH THE BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTHEAST KS SUN
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS SUB-
DIVISION SUN AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL RAINS
OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF KS...WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
NEIGHBORHOOD SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TUE-WED:
DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS UPPER-DECK SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL REGIME.

WED NIGHT-FRI:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU THU AS THE NEXT MID-UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CHARACTER SHOULD SHEAR
CONSIDERABLY THU AFTERNOON & EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS & ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER &
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION CONCERN STILL REMAINS STORMS OVERNIGHT.

STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL. THIS WILL
ALL BE OCCURRING IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STILL NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. BY
SUNRISE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EXITING SE KS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z ON SAT JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRACK NORTHEAST. LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-135 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS. SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH WET
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST TREND. THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  74  54  65 /  60  50  50  50
HUTCHINSON      57  74  51  65 /  70  40  50  60
NEWTON          59  73  52  63 /  70  50  50  60
ELDORADO        59  73  55  67 /  70  70  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  74  55  68 /  70  70  50  50
RUSSELL         54  73  50  61 /  50  40  60  50
GREAT BEND      54  74  49  61 /  50  40  50  50
SALINA          58  74  52  63 /  70  50  60  60
MCPHERSON       57  73  52  63 /  70  40  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     60  73  57  69 /  80  90  50  60
CHANUTE         60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60
IOLA            60  71  56  67 /  80  90  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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