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000
FXUS63 KICT 031758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
DOWN TO SOUTHERN CA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN
THIS TROUGH...ONE ROTATING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NW KS/NORTHEAST CO WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR FRONTAL TIMING
SOLUTION WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID
50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST/WEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO AID TO BUMP TEMPS UP TODAY. MAY EVEN GET A
FEW HOURS OF HEATING OVER CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
SURGES THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE GONE THROUGH A CHANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT`S RUNS WHICH
MAY LEAD TO MORE LIFT AND PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS IS DUE
TO ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOWING MORE BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION. THE
NAM IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT AND
ALSO HAS THE LIFT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THE
IMPULSE TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL ALSO TIGHTEN
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AND THIS IS DEPICTED BY MULTIPLE MODELS. SO CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS MAY
LEAD TO A QUICKLY MOVING BAND OF SNOW AROUND 12Z WED THAT MAY
START UP IN CENTRAL KS AND QUICKLY DIVE SOUTH. WHILE NOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE
NAM...CURRENTLY HAVE A LEAN TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH WOULD PUT THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN KS...CLOSE TO THE OK BORDER. FOR
NOW WILL RUN WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
18Z WED. MAY SEE A FZRA/SLEET MIX TONIGHT OVER FAR SE KS BEFORE
THE WARM WEDGE IS ERODED. WILL NOT RUN WITH ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND...WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF
A FEW COUNTIES BORDERING OK ARE PUT INTO A LOW END ADVISORY.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WED EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. WHILE THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY NOT RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IT WILL RESULT
IN TEMPS CLOSE TO OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL BE A
FAIRLY BIG CHANGE COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK IMPULSES TRACKING DOWN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
MISS VALLEY...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT HAS KEPT LIFR/IFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THESE LOW CEILINGS IMPACTING KCNU WILL
CONTINUE SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS.
MID LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO RAMP UP BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE SNOW AT
THIS TIME...THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO HINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY.

RITZMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WINDS FINALLY
FLIPPING TO THE NORTH OVER SE KS TOWARD SUNSET. WHILE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL KS...THEY
WILL ONLY GUST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AND THE COOLER AIR SPILLING
SOUTH KEEPING RH`S ON THE HIGH SIDE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ON WED WHICH WILL KEEP RH`S UP. WINDS ON WED WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST IN THE 12-16 MPH RANGE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  19  27  13 /  10  40  50  10
HUTCHINSON      47  16  27  11 /  10  40  40  10
NEWTON          47  17  27  12 /  10  30  40  10
ELDORADO        49  20  26  13 /  10  30  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  19  26  13 /  30  40  50  10
RUSSELL         42  14  27   5 /  10  40  30   0
GREAT BEND      43  15  27   4 /  10  50  50  10
SALINA          46  14  28  10 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       47  16  28  11 /  10  30  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     53  20  26  13 /  30  50  60  10
CHANUTE         52  18  26  12 /  20  30  50  10
IOLA            51  18  26  12 /  20  30  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  19  26  12 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$