Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 311158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Today will be the last day of afternoon/evening tropical airmass
thunderstorms, as daytime heating and cool mid-level temperatures
allow convective updrafts to develop freely once again. Instability
should be less today with cooler daytime highs but upper level
trough axis dropping southward will help aid in vertical motion
across the region. Strong subsidence in the wake of the upper level
wave will taper off precipitation chances from north to south
tonight. Drier/cooler air will spread across the region for Thursday
and Friday as surface high pressure builds over Kansas. Meanwhile a
few elevated showers/storms will be possible late Friday night
across central Kansas, as models continue to show 700mb warm moist
advection signal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Still seeing a decent signal in the models for elevated
thunderstorms Saturday night for central Kansas as 700mb warm moist
advection is stronger than Friday night. However the bulk of the
activity should remain north of the area. Warmer temperatures and
increasing south winds are expected for Sunday into Monday along
with dry weather conditions. Thunderstorm chances look limited as
mid-level temperatures warm and surface front is well north of
central Kansas Sunday/Monday. Long range models still show a
decent upper trough axis shifting eastward from the Rockies into
the central US for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. This would push a
cold front southward and increase precipitation chances if this
signature remains intact by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Little change in airmass, and little change in weather. Scattered
convection will will continue today, with little predictability
of timing or location. Will continue VCTS at all sites for most of
the day. With frontal passage precipitation will wane, but cooler
air and upslope component will likely lead to at least MVFR if not
IFR conditions tonight. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  64  82  59 /  60  30  10   0
Hutchinson      79  62  81  58 /  60  20  10  10
Newton          79  62  81  57 /  60  20  10   0
ElDorado        80  63  81  58 /  60  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   82  65  83  60 /  50  40  10  10
Russell         77  58  81  57 /  50  20   0   0
Great Bend      78  59  81  58 /  60  30  10  10
Salina          77  59  82  57 /  60  10   0   0
McPherson       78  61  81  57 /  60  20  10   0
Coffeyville     83  67  83  59 /  50  30  10   0
Chanute         80  63  82  58 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            80  62  82  58 /  60  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    82  65  83  59 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...PJH



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