596
FXUS63 KICT 152318
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best chance for widespread showers and storms across the area is
  expected Wednesday night to Thursday night.

- Warmer on Wednesday with a brief cooldown on Thursday followed by
  temperatures rising into the weekend.

- Spotty scattered showers and storms are possible through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Tonight into Thursday night... A low-level jet will increase tonight
coupled with increasing low-level moisture advection leading to a
chance of storms north of our area overnight. On Wednesday,
increasing southerly flow at the surface will lead to warmer
temperatures ahead of a cold front. High temperatures are expected
to rise into the 90s with some areas around 100. This cold front is
expected to move into our area on Wednesday night as a shortwave
trough traverses east across the Northern Plains. As the front
advances south, chances for widespread showers and storms increase
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Strong to a few severe
thunderstorms are possible given the strong instability and
increasing low-level jet. Given the weak deep layer shear and decent
values of DCAPE, the main impacts would likely be strong gusty
winds, locally heavy rain, and small hail. With the front pushing
further south on Thursday, high temperatures will be in the upper
70s to lower 90s. By Thursday night, PWAT values are expected to
increase to about 2.00" which is close to the daily max making
efficient rainfall likely. Given weaker instability and wind shear
is forecast, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Friday to Friday night... On Friday, the front will lift back north
into the area returning southerly flow at the surface. High
temperatures will return back into the 90s. Low level moisture
advection will persist with instability increasing in northern
Kansas leading to an additional small chance of storms on Friday
night.

Sat-Tue... Going into the weekend, our area will be more influenced
by the weak upper-level ridge. Thickness will increase with high
temperatures rising into the mid 90s to low 100s. Diurnally driven
scattered storms will be possible at times during the weekend.
Moving into early next week, similar temperatures are expected to
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Winds will diminish across central Kansas shortly after sunset,
otherwise expecting a period of low level wind shear overnight
across central into the early morning hours. VFR conditions will
prevail across the region over the next 24hrs. A cold front will
push southward into central Kansas by Wednesday evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ