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000
FXUS63 KICT 102016
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
216 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WINNEPEG/SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES (MID-UPPER 30S) IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA IS PROGGED IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BY THE MODELS...TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE BEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IS FOR EAST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE. IF MID-LEVELS DRY OUT FRIDAY EVENING...LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET AT THIS TIME WITH DRY WEATHER.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. THE ECMWF SHOWS ENERGY DIGGING OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA FORMING A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS IS FLATTER AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO UNCERTAINTY BY
TUESDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WITH THE GFS WARMER
AND THE ECMWF COLDER THAN AVERAGE. A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH 50% GOING FORECAST WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
MONDAY-TUESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL CAUSE A QUICK
BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH AND CHANGE THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
BY MORNING MOST WINDS EXCEPT THOSE AT KCNU WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE COLD
GROUND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT THE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    13  27  12  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      12  25  13  38 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          13  25  12  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        14  25  12  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   15  29  12  36 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         10  22  13  38 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      11  26  13  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          12  25  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       11  25  13  38 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     13  29  10  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         14  26   9  35 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            14  24   9  35 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    15  28  10  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$