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000
FXUS63 KICT 211157
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER NORTHERN OK
AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOME
SMALLER CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE AREA...ONE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH
ANOTHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
HAVE BEEN FLOATING AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AM EXPECTING
THESE TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GET MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF I-135. BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE OZARK
REGION PUSHING THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND...HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

BY TUE MORNING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING ON SHORE OVER
NORTHERN CA. OVER THE PLAINS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST ON
TUE AND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR TUE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135
LATE TUE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WED AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OUT OVER WESTERN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS AS
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR INITIATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION ON WED IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG MID
LEVEL THETA-E SURGE WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP.

ONCE THE STORMS DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD TRACK EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE OVER SE KS BY 12Z THU. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WED NIGHT
IS OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING STORMS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH
AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE GFS
AND ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRI WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH
ON FRI NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING
ANOTHER TROUGH OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SAT...THE GFS KEEPS MUCH
OF THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING
SITUATED FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. WHILE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THE GFS
DOES CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AN OPEN
WAVE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE SAT-SUN TIME FRAME
LOOKS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA IS SC KS WHERE FOG IS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. JUST SINCE 6 AM VSBYS HAVE VARIED FROM 1/4SM FG TO
4SM OVER VERY SHORT DISTANCES. ITS NOT SURPRISING THAT AREAS OF ~500FT
STRATUS...BE IT SCT OR BKN...ARE LURKING ABOUT THE PREMISES. BOTH WILL
PESTER THESE AREAS UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SC KS FROM 15-17Z &
ALTHOUGH THE NLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WOULD ONLY BE ~10KTS SCOURING WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO PLACE KHUT & KICT IN VFR STATUS BY 17Z. SCT SHRA WITH
A FEW TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ERN KS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AROUND WHICH
TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING E/SE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WOULD RESULT IN EXCELLENT WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS
THRU TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH FOR ALL AREAS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL KS WHERE GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR TUE...WINDS
WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135. MEANWHILE...EAST
OF I-135 WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS
OVER CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.

WED WILL BE A DANGEROUS BURNING DAY AS VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30-35 MPH
RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  46  77  54 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  46  77  54 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          75  46  75  53 /  30   0   0  10
ELDORADO        74  47  75  53 /  30  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  48  77  53 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         77  43  78  55 /  30   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      76  45  78  55 /  30   0  10  20
SALINA          77  44  77  53 /  30   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  45  77  54 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  49  76  48 /  50  20   0   0
CHANUTE         74  47  74  48 /  50  20   0   0
IOLA            73  47  73  48 /  60  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  75  48 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES