Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010538
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING
WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE STRONG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAY SUNDAY FOR THIS THREAT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 30MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH. WITH THE EARLIER ONSET...WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT
TONIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
US.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE INCREASES. COLDER AIR
IS NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE KS/NEB
BORDER REPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND HELP PUSH SOME POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
THE LIGHT RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE
GOOD NEWS IS...THAT AS THIS SUBFREEZING AIR DROPS SOUTH...MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. COULD
ALSO SEE A LIGHT DUSTING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN
MORNING...AS DOWNGLIDE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  BUT EVEN AS THE SNOW
ENDS...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ON SUN...WITH A
RATHER COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN CENTRAL KS
AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN KS.

SUN NIGHT-MON: COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE POLAR RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL KS AND THE TEENS IN SRN KS.

EXPECT THE TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME ON MON...AS SURFACE WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS....WITH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL
NORMALS. THINK TEMPS MAY BE TEMPERED SOME ON MON...DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE. WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF POLAR AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMP ROLLERCOASTER
CONTINUING...AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP THAT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE THIS COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE
PACIFIC IN NATURE.  GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE MOISTURE AS THE
COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE INITIALLY OF A WINTRY MIX AS
THIS LIFT INCREASES...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR WED.   THE ECMWF IS
ALOT DRIER...AND WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A TRACE EVENT OF SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES.   MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS KEEPING A SLIGHT POP FOR NOW
AND SEEING HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.  GFS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON WED.

NOT EXPECTING THE POLAR AIR TO REMAINS AROUND TOO LONG...AS BOTH
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING
EASTWARD FROM KICT AND KSLN. THE FRONT IS KNOCKING ON KRSL DOOR AS
OF 06Z AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO MIX IN
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KRSL/KSLN. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
KICT/KHUT AND HAVE INCLUDED -RASN IN A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT KICT/KHUT.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT KRSL/KSLN.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL STAY IN IFR/MVFR WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
DAYTIME SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 26 KTS AND GUSTS TO OVER 35KTS POSSIBLE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  34  13  37 / 100  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  31  10  38 / 100  10   0   0
NEWTON          29  33  11  35 / 100  20   0   0
ELDORADO        32  35  12  36 / 100  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  37  13  37 / 100  30   0   0
RUSSELL         23  26  10  40 / 100  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  27  11  41 / 100  10   0   0
SALINA          25  29   9  37 / 100  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  30   9  36 / 100  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  42  15  35 / 100  50   0   0
CHANUTE         37  40  13  34 / 100  50  10   0
IOLA            37  39  13  33 / 100  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  40  13  35 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$


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