Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  90  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  80  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  60  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  80  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  80  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 / 100  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 / 100  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  70  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 / 100  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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