Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Water vapor imagery still shows the main upper energy back over
the desert southwest with a weak impulse now lifting over western
CO into NW NM. At the surface, there are a number of
outflow/gravity waves south and southwest of our forecast area.
The more robust one stretches from nw of KOKC to near KGCK with a
more subtle one extending from KEND to near KDDC. A storm have
developed on the boundary over north central OK and is now diving


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Confidence is high that surface based storms will develop near the
intersection of the dryline and outflow after 4pm which will be
over SW KS/OK panhandle. This activity will slowly migrate east
this evening and may grow upscale as 850-700mb theta-e advection
ramps up. How far east surface based storms make it and where
additional elevated convection form is very uncertain. It`s not
out of the question that the surface based storms die off as they
approach western flank of forecast area as elevated storms develop
near or north of I-70 later. For now, the general theme of higher severe
chances generally west of I-135 looks good for tonight, with low
confidence in how far east the more robust convection makes it.

Weak upper energy will track of the central/northern Rockies for
Wed and will push the better moisture east, generally east of
I-135. The big question for storms Wed afternoon/evening will be
whether there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to
develop as the dryline washes out and becomes much less defined.
While the better surface convergence remains down in OK Wed, will
linger some small pops in case a storm or two can develop Wed
afternoon/early evening. If a storm can develop, it would quickly
become severe with greater than 3,500J/KG of CAPE.

The main vort lobe looks to lift out across the Plains for the
Thu-Fri time period. By 00z Fri this feature will be over southern
CO/northern NM and by 00z Sat will be out over western KS. This
should allow for better areal coverage for storms late Thu
afternoon/evening. At this time thinking that the dryline will
setup just west of our forecast area Thu, generally from Medicine
Lodge to near Hays. Storms that develop in this area would have a
good chance of affecting locations along and west of I-135. With
deep layer shear increasing and high instability remaining, higher
end severe looks possible Thu afternoon/evening with any storms
that develop along the dryline. Storms should become more numerous
Fri for much of the forecast area as the upper wave starts to
directly impact central/eastern KS. While severe storms will be
possible with any storm Fri, upper winds will back ahead of the
upper wave, reducing good directional shear above 850mb. So while
the higher end severe may not be as likely, the number of storms
affecting central and eastern Kansas will be higher Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By 12z Sat there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS, pushing the
better convective chances northeast of the forecast area. However,
we quickly get back into SW flow aloft, albeit weak. This will
allow the better low level moisture to lift back across the
central Plains. What makes it tough through these extended periods
is the lack of a surface focus or distinct upper wave to focus on.
In addition, upper winds will be considerably weaker than the
current sw flow pattern we are in. So, with plenty of instability
it will not take much to get a storm to develop. Have a slight
lean toward the better storm chances being at night with low level
jet processes helping initiate storms. Confidence is high that
temps will be close to or slightly above seasonal normals through
this extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential.

Small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border near a west to east oriented convective outflow
boundary. Any of this activity that may develop is expected to
stay south of the ICT and CNU terminals through 00z. Otherwise, a
better chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be late this
afternoon/evening...with development first occurring in western
Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. These storms will have an
eastward motion and could reach around the I-135 corridor toward
mid-late evening. Highest probabilities initially will be at the
RSL and GBD terminals where a tempo +TSRA is planned early this
eve, and will use VCTS as far east as SLN and ICT Terminals.
Strong-severe outflow wind gusts and potentially large hail could
accompany this storm activity.

Southeasterly, continued moist flow should result in stratus
development across much of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely, with some potential for


Wichita-KICT    68  87  69  86 /  40  20  10  30
Hutchinson      66  88  67  85 /  40  10  10  30
Newton          67  87  68  85 /  40  20  10  30
ElDorado        67  87  70  85 /  40  20  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  71  85 /  40  20  10  30
Russell         63  87  59  86 /  60  10  10  40
Great Bend      64  88  60  87 /  60  10  10  30
Salina          65  88  66  88 /  40  20  20  30
McPherson       65  88  67  85 /  40  20  10  30
Coffeyville     68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Chanute         68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Iola            67  84  70  85 /  40  30  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20


.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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