Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 271930
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED/VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW CHURNING NORTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND MANIFESTING ITSELF IN A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 2 PM...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES
THROUGH KLSE...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH RATHER
STIFF EAST WIND ADDING TO THE CHILL.

MESO MODELS SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST BUT THEN
WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL BE WANING AND DRIER AIR
ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GNAW AWAY AT IT. WILL BE WATCHING THE
LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY FILLING.
MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-
94 OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW FILLS
AND MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 40S WITH EAST WINDS AT 10-20
MPH.

LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO FILL/MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND WIND...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FROST NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH A BIT COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING ANOTHER OCCLUDED LOW MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
LOOKS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94. THE SHOWERS/EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60.

MONDAY APPEARS DRY AT THIS POINT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF A BIT AT ODDS GOING INTO TUESDAY. THE EC SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE REGION
WHILE GFS WANTS TO BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL PANS OUT WITH THE GFS BEING THE WARMER
SOLUTION. CONSENSUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WI ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
A RAIN BAND INTO THE AIRFIELDS LATER TODAY. FURTHER EAST /KLSE/...DRY
AIR FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL BATTLE THIS RAIN BAND. OVERALL...CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR OR HIGHER...AND VISIBILITIES VFR.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE TIMING OF THE SHRA AND LOWER CIGS.
JUST HOW THE RAIN BAND WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE DRY AIR FLOW IS A
CHALLENGE. BIG PICTURE TRENDS ARE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE WEAK BAND OF LIFT REMAINS OVER THE
AIRFIELDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

1-2 INCH RAINFALLS THIS PAST SUNDAY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PRODUCE RISES
ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE RIVER WILL
BE RISING TO WITHIN 2-4 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE GOING INTO EARLY MAY.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS OR PLANS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON
WATER LEVELS AND INCREASED FLOW RATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...DAS


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