Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 241742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

FORECAST HAS ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...SOME SPRINKLES AND COOL
NORTH.

GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE OVER WRN ONTARIO
WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX AT 730Z.
CLOUDY...COOL /40S/ AND SHOWERY MARKS THIS REGION INTO NRN MN.
REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN WI/MN AT
07Z...MOVING SOUTHEAST. KINL RAOB WAS QUITE SATURATED WITH AROUND
1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WITH SHORTWAVE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE 8C/KM RANGE...HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. THIS
LEAD WAVE ALSO BRINGS WITH IT A POCKET OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH
LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WONT MOVE MUCH TODAY NORTH OF I-94 /BUT
IT HAS ALSO BEEN A WARMER OVERNIGHT THERE/. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SHOWERS LATER MORNING...MAY HAVE ADD SOME SPRINKLES IN LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. CLOUDS
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT THEM MAINLY IN WI.

MAYBE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER...ANOTHER BREEZY-WINDY DAY
TODAY WITH GUSTS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. 88D VWP
AT 07Z SHOWING 40-50 KT 1.5-3KFT WINDS FROM MPX-ARX...WHICH IS
TROUBLING IF MIXING WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE CLOUD WINDS AND
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THESE WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER
THAN VWP IS SUGGESTING /BIRD MIGRATION ENHANCED?/. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING THE 35-45 KT WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR/RAP WIND PROFILES. SO NOT
EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY GUSTS TO BE MET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE A RIVER VALLEY FOG MORNING...BUT HAVE
NOT ADDRESSED THIS IN THE FORECAST AS OF YET. BUT...IT APPEARS
DEEPER LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. WILL
MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT DAYS.

THIS PERIOD OVERALL IS CATEGORIZED BEST BY RIDGE BUILDING AND
TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TOWARD A WEEKEND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
THERE IS STILL SOME LOOSE CONSENSUS ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST OUT OF THE MONSOON-RICH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES WOULD FOCUS MORE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA IT SEEMS...BUT THE NORTH HAS SOME RAIN
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBLE NORTHERN FRONT MAKING WAY INTO WISCONSIN.
THE WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE SOME ORIGINS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BECOMES
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IN THE MONSOON FLOW BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT AREAS OF NERN IA
AND SWRN WI...ESPECIALLY IF IT CARRIES SOME INTENSITY...ENOUGH TO
ELICIT SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
ITS DOWNSTREAM SIDE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN DRYING OUT SATURDAY WITH A NICE WEEKEND OF 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...STRATOCUMULUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 3 TO 4 KFT
RANGE...SCT TO BKN AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 8 KTS TONIGHT AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WON/T BE AS STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUST APPROACHING 18 KTS. A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3 KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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