Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 241148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

RAIN HAS ALREADY CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AT KRST AND IS IN THE PROCESS
OF DOING SO AT KLSE AS OF 24.1130Z. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES...
RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS AT KRST AND 26 KTS AT
KLSE. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AT
KRST...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 24.12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 25.06Z AS HEAVIEST SNOW PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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