187
FXUS64 KAMA 100532
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Current GOES-16 water imagery depicts a closed mid to upper low
over the Four Corners Region with some moisture that has split
off from a highly positive tilted trough that has encompassed much
of CONUS, expanding from the coast of CA up through the Great
Lakes Regions. This closed low is progged to bring showers and
thunderstorms to CO and north to northeastern NM overnight
tonight. Although confidence is low at this time, there is a
chance that some of the shower activity can bleed into far western
portions of the combined Panhandles tonight. Through tomorrow the
aforementioned upper level trough will continue to bring rain
chances to much of NM. Then again, tomorrow night the far western
combined Panhandles will once again have around a 20 PoP with
this activity potentially bleeding into the western FA.

For now surface winds remain northerly to easterly with cool
daytime temperatures expected for tomorrow with highs in the
upper 60s to the west and 70s to the east. Low level moisture will
start to increase a bit going into tomorrow as well with H7
theta-e picking up, and dewpoints rising into the lower 40s. This
will help set things up for rain potential over the weekend when
the aforementioned upper level trough begins to overtake the
combined Panhandles and much of West Texas.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The panhandles has a high chance of seeing active weather for the
weekend and next work week.

Initially this will be in the form of a broad trough to weak
closed low sitting over the desert SW with a weak ridge over the
southern plains. This setup will allow return moisture to push
into the panhandles from the SE during the weekend. Some moisture
will already have pushed into the panhandles from the N earlier
which combined with the return flow will allow the whole
panhandles the opportunity to see rain and thunderstorms. This
doesn`t guarantee that all spots will see rain as these showers
will be scattered in nature, so some spots may see several rain
showers and other spots none. Saturday will have a lesser chance
for the rain along with lesser amounts as the moisture will have
just arrived and the dynamics and instability for the trough being
less as it is far away. Sunday will see higher moisture as this
will be second day of return flow along with higher instability
and dynamics as the trough/closed low passes over the southern
plains. This will create more extensive rain showers and
thunderstorm coverage which will be capable of producing higher
rainfall amounts. The instability and dynamics are supportive of
causing isolated strong to even severe storm in the panhandles
with hail and winds being the most likely threats. The weekend
will have a high chance of being on the cooler side as the the
moisture cause extensive clouds and the system passes cooler air
over the region.

The start of next work week will see the trough/closed low push
eastward out of the southern plains. This will shift the upper
level flow to be more out of the NW allowing for several small
trough to push into the southern plains. Some limited moisture
has a moderate chance of arriving with these troughs allowing for
rain showers and thunderstorms during each of their passages.
However there is a fairly large amount of uncertainty in this
pattern evolution so this forecast may change. This would mainly
center around the amount of moisture available to cause either
more extensive or lack of rain showers and thunderstorms, and the
amount of instability for how intense these showers and
thunderstorms would be. Next work week looks to be an overall
warmer period even with the passage of the series of troughs.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will start out of the north and become more
easterly towards the end of the TAF period with winds 5-15 kts.
Mid level clouds from sct to bkn will occur throughout the TAF
period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  50  69  51 /  10  10  40  60
Beaver OK                  76  47  79  52 /  10   0  10  50
Boise City OK              67  46  69  47 /  20  10  50  50
Borger TX                  77  52  76  53 /  10   0  30  50
Boys Ranch TX              73  50  72  51 /  10  10  50  60
Canyon TX                  72  50  69  50 /  10  10  40  60
Clarendon TX               74  52  71  52 /  10   0  30  50
Dalhart TX                 68  44  68  47 /  10  10  50  60
Guymon OK                  74  47  75  49 /  10   0  30  60
Hereford TX                72  49  68  51 /   0  10  50  70
Lipscomb TX                77  50  79  53 /   0   0  10  50
Pampa TX                   74  50  73  51 /   0   0  20  50
Shamrock TX                76  51  75  52 /   0   0  10  50
Wellington TX              77  53  74  53 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...29