Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190508
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

As the main cut off H500 low, as of 19Z, is centered over Yuma,
AZ, it will continue to remain quasi-stationary over the
aforementioned area throughout the short term forecast period.
Some residual high clouds on the periphery of the main cyclonic
circulation, mainly confined to the far western Panhandles.
Otherwise, we should remain dry through this forecast period. With
southwesterly surface flow returning tomorrow, high temperatures
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, a few degrees warmer
than today.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Latest 18/12 model and numerical data shows a building H500 ridge
into northern California by Wednesday afternoon. This will help to
displace the main H500 cut off low over western Arizona into the
main steering flow once again. The main system ill move east
across the Texas late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
As it does so, lift out ahead of the main disturbance should help
to generate some showers and thunderstorms, giving all the
Panhandles at least a 20% chance, if not more. Along and east of
a line from Amarillo to Guymon, some instability as high as
1000-1200 J/kg coupled with effective shear of 20-25 kts may help
to generate some strong to a severe storm or two. With the core of
the UL low moving over portions of the Panhandles, if the shear
can support a decent updraft, 1" hail could be possible with a
secondary threat of wind gusts up to 60 mph with more robust
updrafts. Timing for thunderstorms chances would be from Wednesday
afternoon through about midnight on Thursday. There are a range of
model solutions of little to more thunderstorm activity, most
likely depending on the more pronounced H700 theta-e return
cyclonically around the closed low. Will watch trends closely.

Thursday onward through the weekend, sub 15% POPs are possible
this weekend as a deepening sinusoidal H500 pattern takes place
across the western CONUS. Will have to sort details on how
displaced is the moisture axis for rain chances. If not much rain
occurs leading up to the weekend, we could also see a return of at
least elevated fire weather conditions by the second half of the
weekend as breezy SW winds return. High temperatures Wednesday
through Sunday will remain above average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this period. Southwesterly
winds at 10-15 kts are expected through the day before weakening
to below 10 kts this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  41  71  40 /   0  10  50  40
Beaver OK                  76  36  72  40 /   0   0  50  40
Boise City OK              69  36  68  35 /   0   0  30  10
Borger TX                  74  43  75  42 /   0  10  50  40
Boys Ranch TX              72  38  71  36 /   0  10  50  30
Canyon TX                  69  40  71  39 /   0  10  50  30
Clarendon TX               71  43  72  44 /   0  10  50  50
Dalhart TX                 69  35  69  35 /   0  10  40  20
Guymon OK                  73  35  71  38 /   0   0  50  30
Hereford TX                69  38  71  36 /   0  10  50  30
Lipscomb TX                75  41  73  43 /   0   0  60  50
Pampa TX                   72  44  72  42 /   0  10  60  50
Shamrock TX                73  43  73  45 /   0  10  60  60
Wellington TX              72  42  72  46 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52


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