Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 010515 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1215 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours, with passing mid to high clouds AOA 10k ft AGL at KGUY & KAMA
thru 01/23Z.  A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible near KGUY
BTWN 01/12Z thru 02/00Z, but will not mention due to low chance and
isolated coverage.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

An upper ridge over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles will break down
and shift east Saturday as a short wave trough approaches the
forecast area from the southern Rockies. Lack of low level moisture
and upper level support should inhibit convection through the
weekend...however isolated convection may develop over portions of
the northwest Panhandles this evening or tonight and the eastern
Panhandles Saturday night. A surface trough will remain across the
far eastern Plains of New Mexico...near the Texas and New Mexico
state line or over the far western portions of the forecast area. The
surface trough is forecast to sharpen up into a dry line early next
week and then begin moving eastward across the Panhandles as a closed
upper low tracks east and north out of western states.

The NAM and GFS are beginning to trend towards a drier solution and
are leaning more towards the ECMWF in tracking the closed upper low
across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Yesterday...the
GFS was bringing the closed upper low farther south near the Four
Corners region. It is beginning to look as though the Panhandles will
be dry-slotted early next week. There are still of uncertainties and
confidence remains low...but the best chances for convection could
possibly be Monday night as a vort lobe rounds the base of the upper
trough and approaches the Panhandles. The ECMWF keeps the Panhandles
dry Monday night into Tuesday and now the 18Z NAM is also trending
dry for Monday night. Could be way overdone on POPS Monday night if
this trend holds true. Lots of uncertainties as to whether the dry
line will move to near or just off the caprock Tuesday afternoon or
if the dry line surges east into western Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.
If the dry line stalls near or just off the caprock...convection
appears likely with some of the convection becoming severe Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday evening. Otherwise...dry conditions will
continue this weekend through the end of the extended period. A cold
front will then move through the forecast area Tuesday night.


A dry line is expected to push east across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles on Tuesday and should stall near or just off the caprock
by late Tuesday afternoon. There is a lot of uncertainties as to
whether the dry line will stall along or just off of the caprock
across the eastern third of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles or if
the dry line will continue to surge eastward into western Oklahoma.
Either way...behind the dry line minimum afternoon relative
humidities Tuesday afternoon are forecast to fall to near 15 percent
or in the 10 to 15 percent range while the 20 foot west and
southwesterly downsloping winds increase into the 15 to 25 MPH range
or 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts. This will put the weather
criteria into at least elevated fire weather conditions. However...the
biggest caveat will be the fuels. The state of the fuels will
determine as to whether any sort of fire weather products become
necessary early next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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