000
FXUS64 KAMA 222332
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop between 00z and 05z
Friday, with potential for direct impacts at all terminals.  Main
threat expected to be erratic gusts above 40 kt in and near
thunderstorms.  Otherwise, southeast surface winds around 15 kt
should prevail this evening.  Cold front expected to pass
terminals between 06z and 11z Friday, with north northeast surface
winds gusting into the 30 to 40 kt range through at least most of
the morning.  MVFR ceilings expected to develop after 11z at
northern terminals, persisting all morning at GUY, and through
most of the day at DHT.  At this time, not expecting MVFR
ceilings Friday morning at AMA.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 515 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms, some may be severe again, this evening across
the Panhandles as a shortwave trough move through the area.
Overall CAMS are suggesting more of a line of storms later in the
evening to move through, with perhaps a discrete storm or two
ahead of the main line. Most of the convection has started off
over the NM area and is fairly weak. Expect these storms will
become stronger as they move into a more unstable environment over
the western Panhandles, and will eventually become a line
progressing from northwest to southeast. Right now hail with some
of the stronger storms could be around ping pong ball size (1.5")
maybe a bit larger for areas over the OK Panhandle, where
instability is a bit higher. Gusty winds will be the main issue as
storms become more of a line later tonight.

High pressure will continue to amplify over the west as the upper
level trough digs down the central and eastern CONUS. A cold
front will work its way south tonight across the Panhandles,
bringing a relief in temperatures over the next few days. Areas to
the north today that are expected be near or slightly above 100,
will only be in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Areas to the
south are expected to be in the 80s. By Saturday, Sunday, and
possibly Monday, all areas will be in the mid 70s and may even
struggle to reach 80. Showers and storms will still be possible
over the weekend, and with high PWAT values over 1.2" for most of
the Panhandles, moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Also with
little upper level support to move these storms, they will likely
be slow moving in nature and could pose a moderate to heavy rain
threat, with flooding issue possible.

By mid next week the high pressure will begin to be suppressed by
an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest. This will set
up more of a zonal flow for the area. With H850 temps around
30-33C and possible downslope adiabatic warming, very warm to hot
temperatures are expected to return by next Wednesday. For now
showers and thunderstorms don`t look too favorable on Wednesday,
or Thursday, but we`ll keep an eye on things to see if they trend
differently, or if subtle impulses and the dryline retreats far
enough west to allow for storms.

Weber

AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...VFR conditions will lower this evening as storms go
through the area. Storms are expected to progress from northwest
to southeast between 23Z and 06Z. Ceilings will recover a bit and
winds will calm slightly after storms pass before a cold front
pushes through and causes winds to ramp up with gusts up to 40kts
and ceilings to drop to possibly MVFR or lower. Confidence on
ceiling heights is kind of low, but could go lower than tafs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  83  59  76  60 /  30  20  30  30  50
Beaver OK                  67  79  59  79  59 /  40  30  10  10  40
Boise City OK              61  75  56  76  56 /  30  20  10  20  50
Borger TX                  69  83  62  79  61 /  30  20  30  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              69  84  60  80  59 /  30  20  30  30  50
Canyon TX                  68  84  59  77  60 /  30  20  30  30  50
Clarendon TX               70  86  60  77  61 /  30  30  40  30  40
Dalhart TX                 65  79  58  78  57 /  30  20  20  20  50
Guymon OK                  64  78  58  78  58 /  40  20  10  10  40
Hereford TX                69  85  59  78  61 /  30  20  30  30  50
Lipscomb TX                68  82  60  79  60 /  30  30  20  10  40
Pampa TX                   68  81  60  76  60 /  30  30  30  20  40
Shamrock TX                70  87  61  79  62 /  30  30  30  20  40
Wellington TX              71  90  63  79  64 /  30  30  40  30  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/14