Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310546
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1246 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.AVIATION...
For 06z TAFs...Some low level stratus along with showers in the
vicinity of all TAF sites early this period will lead to
occasional MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Can`t rule out some patchy fog
with good surface moisture a very light winds during the early
morning hours. Late morning ceilings should lift some but MVFR
showers are expected to increase in coverage towards day
break...so kept prevalent showers at KAMA and KDHT with vicinity
showers for KDHT. Put in PROB30 for all sites this afternoon as
airmass does become more supportive of thunder during that time.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 930 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

UPDATE...
General trend has been for decrease in precip across the region and
for areas of shra to dissipate as they approach the area. This is
partly to do with amount the area was worked over today and divergent
flow at the sfc. CAMs are not very excited about widespread precip
developing across the region overnight as well. Based on this, did
quick update to decrease POPs to sct most areas with likely confined
to NE where rain is ongoing. ALso warmed lows a tad closer to raw
model blend which also is closer to persistence. Expect SHRA will
increase after sunrise with minimal heating.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A south to southwest flow aloft between an upper low over Colorado
and an upper ridge over the southeast U.S. This flow continues to
bring rich subtropical moisture across the panhandles. Therefore,
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be widespread over
the region.

The subtropical moisture will finally get suppressed to the south of
the panhandles by Friday as an upper level high builds southward
over the southern plains. However, shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue through the rest of this forecast as the upper high
shifts off to the southeast of the panhandles and a stronger
southwest flow aloft moves over the area.  Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will not be as great beyond Thursday given the drier
atmosphere.

High temperatures will be below normal through Friday given the
extra cloud cover and rain. Temperatures will rebound to around
normal or a little above for the weekend and for Labor Day. South to
Southwest winds will also increase into the 15 to 25 mph range for
the weekend as upper heights fall over the Rockies in association
with the large upper level low moving into the northwest U.S.

HYDROLOGY...
Will continue the Flood Watch for the eastern half of the Texas
Panhandle and the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. These
areas will continue to be under the gun for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Some of the creeks and rivers,
especially in the southeast Texas Panhandle, have seen some rises.
In fact, the Prairie Dog Town Fork of the Red River near Wayside has
risen over a half of foot in just 15 minutes. The river should stay
below flood stage with the rain that has already fallen, but if more
heavy rain develops near the gage site in south central Armstrong
county it could push the river to around flood stage.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

7/14


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