Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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613
FXUS64 KAMA 062206
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
406 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND RAP PV ANALYSIS NOW
EMERGING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM BROADENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN ONLY WEAK
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING QUITE DRY
AND ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH...NO CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...LEESIDE TROUGHING SETS UP AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 70S.

WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOME ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND FORCE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING WARM AND NO APPRECIABLE COLD AIR
INTRUDING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND IF MORE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN APPROACH
THE AREA AND GIVE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS...BUT FOR NOW THINGS
LOOK DRY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  27  52  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  54  24  50  25  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              54  25  48  21  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  57  30  52  29  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              55  24  51  24  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  57  25  53  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               56  27  54  29  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 54  25  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  56  25  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                56  25  53  23  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  28  52  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   54  28  51  25  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                55  26  55  31  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              56  26  57  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/18



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