000
FXUS64 KAMA 180816
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
316 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level short wave trough moving into the northwest CWA early
this morning will slowly move southeast across the Panhandles today.
This wave should help to spark showers and thunderstorms as it moves
southeast.

On Saturday, the center of the upper level ridge will be over
southeast Texas. This will put the Panhandles in a weak west to
southwest flow aloft which may bring some mountain convection this
way.

The upper level ridge will shift to the southeast U.S. on Sunday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will be found near southern California.
Another upper level low will get caught up in the south to southwest
flow aloft over Arizona. This upper level low is expected to move
northeast across the 4 corners region by Sunday night and then into
the central plains by late afternoon on Monday. As this upper level
low moves northeast through the southwest U.S. it should bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region as it teams up
with the subtropical moisture.

A northwest flow aloft will then set up by Tuesday and this will help
to drive a cold front through the region which will be another focus
for showers and thunderstorms.

The return surface flow behind the cold front should bring moisture
back into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. This moisture
should combine with instability and shear to help produce more
showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures should be around normal through early next week,
then they should go back below normal by mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  66  92  67  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
Beaver OK                  97  67  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boise City OK              91  62  91  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  20
Borger TX                  94  69  95  71  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              93  66  93  68  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
Canyon TX                  92  65  92  67  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               94  68  95  69  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 91  65  91  66  87 /  20  20  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  95  66  96  68  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
Hereford TX                91  66  90  67  88 /  20  20  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                97  69  97  71  95 /  40  30  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   93  68  93  70  92 /  30  20  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                95  70  96  71  95 /  40  30  10  10  10
Wellington TX              97  71  98  71  96 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/15