625
FXUS64 KAMA 301812
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
112 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
 holiday week with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm
 could produce very heavy rain leading to localized flooding.

-Increasing heat toward the holiday weekend with temperatures
 returning to the lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

High pressure over the southern plains has weakened due to a
progressive upper level trough now approaching the Great Lakes.
Two areas of high pressure now exist, one over the Four Corners
region and one (more suppressed) over east Texas, with a weakness
inbetween over West Texas. This is where monsoon moisture has
been on the increase, and additional moisture is expected from the
remnants of Barry and the gulf region through the next few days.
A stalled front is still in KS as of this writing, but many
different outflow boundaries have traversed the area since
yesterday evening, with the latest pushing from east to west, now
crossing into NM. The airmass behind the outflow does include some
modest low level moisture with dew points in the low to mid 60s
in all but the southwest Texas Panhandle. Temperatures have been
slow to increase through the morning with most locations still in
the low 70s as of noon thanks to cloud cover.

Even with the cloud cover and modest elevated instability, a few
thunderstorms have managed to develop in the southeast TX
Panhandle with some isentropic lift and weak upslope flow as winds
continue to veer from northerly to easterly behind the outflow.
There are also embedded vort maxima within the area of H5 weakness
aloft, and these perturbations will continue to play a factor in
storm development over the next few days as high pressure tries to
build in again. The big question for today is where will the
greatest coverage of storms reside, as there is great disparity
in even the short term ensemble members, with some keeping the
Panhandles almost entirely dry through tonight (HRRR runs), and
others suggesting scattered storms will develop along and south of
I-40 (RRFS runs). Based on the setup with increasing MUCAPE as H7
moisture feeds in, have retained the high PoPs for the southern
Texas Panhandle, but did continue to decrease PoPs in the northern
half of the area where activity should be more isolated. With
PWATs on the increase (currently near 90th percentile, but
increasing towards daily max values by tomorrow), and the lack of
steering flow, any stronger storm could lead to localized flooding
or flash flooding with rainfall rates over 2"/hr. This threat may
increase in the far south this evening if some of the higher
coverage model solutions pan out with some areas seeing multiple
rounds of storms. The severe threat appears very low given modest
instability, warm temperatures aloft, and lack of shear. Straight
line winds don`t even look likely with soundings becoming more
tropical-like resulting in less DCAPE (500-800 J/kg).

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Basically the short term forecast is on repeat for the next
several days and what areas see the best coverage will be
determined by outflow boundary positions and where the subtle
waves end up each afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see
storms with coverage being mostly isolated to scattered, but those
that do could get an inch of rain pretty quickly, especially as
PWATs peak Tuesday through Thursday. Right now, Independence Day
is looking uncertain for storms with ensembles being wishy washy
on the timing of a upper level disturbance and another break down
of the high pressure (which may lead to increasing winds during
the afternoon). Temperatures looks to stay below normal for most
of the week, rising to near normal by the end of the week into the
weekend.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Main concern over the next 24 hours is timing and coverage of
thunderstorms. KAMA has the greatest chance of being impacted
mainly between 7 PM and 2 AM, but a rogue storm can`t be ruled out
for any site through the period. Otherwise, there is a 10-20%
chance for MVFR/IFR cigs tomorrow morning as low level moisture
increases. Some brief fog also can`t be ruled out, but chances are
currently very low (<5%).

Ward

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07