Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210915
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                93  67  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                 102  70 100  68  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              95  66  91  63  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
BORGER TX                  98  72  96  69  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  95  66  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  93  66  92  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               96  71  96  67  94 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 95  64  91  62  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
GUYMON OK                  99  68  96  65  95 /  20  20  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                92  64  90  62  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  71  99  69  96 /  20  20  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   94  68  94  66  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                96  72  97  67  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              98  72 100  68  96 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03



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