Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230553 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, expect low clouds to return to the TAF sites
before sunrise this morning, then erode by mid to late morning.
Strong south winds will develop at all terminal sites during the
late morning hours and continue until near sunset Thursday. An
Aviation Weather Warning will likely become necessary at KAMA
during this time period. Thunderstorms will then be possible at
both KGUY and KAMA between 00Z and 03Z Friday as an upper level
storm system affects the region.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 814 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

UPDATE...
Have issued update to graphical forecasts, increasing dewpoints
and overnight temperatures, primarily in eastern sections.  Have
also included mention of fog between midnight and 10 AM for
eastern sections.  No other changes at this time.  Updated text
products will be issued shortly.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 640 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Generally clear sky expected this evening as southeast surface
winds in the 15 to 20 kt range prevail.  Low clouds expected to
make a return late tonight and early Thursday morning, but do not
expect duration of MVFR or IFR ceilings to be as long as was
experienced today.  Southerly surface winds expected to gust into
the 35 to 40 kt range during the afternoon on Thursday.

Isolated thunderstorms expected after 21z Thursday, potentially
impacting AMA or GUY before 00z Friday.  Will not include in
terminals at this time due to low certainty of such occurrence.
Better chances with greater coverage expected in the 00z to 06z
Friday time frame, just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Note:  Widespread telephone outage in the Dalhart area precludes
remote monitoring of DHT surface observations.  Will keep the AMD
NOT SKED remark in the DHT forecast until communications are
restored.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have finally disappeared for most of the Panhandles. Just a
small bunch are hanging on in the southeast TX Panhandle. Clouds
are expected to build back in overnight and slowly erode again
tomorrow as moisture continues getting pumped in from the south.
The increase in moisture will join upper level dynamics, as a mid-
level closed low gets closer to the area, to allow for severe
weather to become possible for the Panhandles. Models are still in
a bit of disagreement over the exact track of the low. Short
range models are indicating that the low may move more northerly
than previously anticipated. Currently, we are still in a
favorable enough position for storms, but if the low were to track
much further north, we would end up dry slotted. CAPE is kind of
on the meager side, but bulk shear is strong and mid-level lapse
rates are high. DCAPE and low level parameters aren`t looking
great. Thus, hail, around quarter size to a bit larger, and strong
winds, 60 to 70 mph, will be the greatest threats. Tornado threat
looks to be very low. CAMS seem to be in fairly good agreement on
discrete cells to start and changing into a linear pattern.
Whether or not the line forms before storms exit our area will be
something to watch for. Initiation looks to be between 4 and 7 pm
eastward of a line from Hereford to Stratford and west of a line
from Clarendon to Perryton. Storms will move eastward and should
be exiting the Panhandles after 1 am.

Meanwhile, during the day on Thursday, winds will be breezy and RH
values in the western Panhandles will drop into the teens and
create fire weather concerns. The winds will stay breezy overnight
and increase on the back side of the low on Friday to become
strong. Northerly winds look to be between 30 and 45 mph with
gusts up to 60 mph. A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory will
likely be needed for western and central portions of the
Panhandles accordingly. Winds should start to come down overnight
and turn more southerly on Saturday as high pressure fills in. The
next shortwave moves through the area on Sunday and and brings
chances for rain and thunderstorms in the north and elevated fire
weather in the south.

The beginning of the work week will see conditions dry out before
the next big system hits mid-week. Long range models are in
terrible disagreement over this system. The GFS tries to close off
the low and dig it southward into the western CONUS. The ECMWF
tries to move a brief weak wave through the central plains that
just glances the area, and the Canadian is in between the two. For
now, have just kept a model blend until more consensus is
gathered.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
for the western TX and OK Panhandles. RH values will drop to between
12 and 20 percent and 20 foot winds will be southerly between 25 and
35 mph. Central and eastern portions of the Panhandles are
expecting thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon through late
evening.

Winds will turn northerly by Friday and will be strong with winds
30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. RH values should remain
above 20 percent on Friday.

Elevated conditions will again be possible on Sunday as RH values
drop into the upper teens for the southern TX Panhandle and winds
will be around 15 mph.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$


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