Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050505 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR AT KDHT
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING TO VFR HEIGHTS. AT KAMA AND KGUY...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AND
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE DAY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
WE WILL CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WX ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AT KAMA AND KDHT DUE TO CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OF -SN COULD STILL IMPACT KAMA THROUGH 02Z...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE DONE WITH FOR ALL SITES AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
BR TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...BUT CHANCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FOCUS TODAY HAS BEEN MAINLY ON THE SHORT TERM WITH ONGOING WINTER
WEATHER EVENT. THERE HAS BEEN CONCERN FOR LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE RESULTING IN LESS SNOWFALL THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE MOISTURE HAS
BEEN DEEPER AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN PRESENT...SNOW HAS
BEEN ONGOING SINCE LATE MORNING WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES COMMON.
FURTHER NORTH SATURATION HAS BEEN SHALLOW AND WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ICE NUCLEATION PRECIPITATION REMAINED
LIQUID THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS RESULT IN
IMPACTS WITH MANY ROAD SURFACES BECOMING SLICK. TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN UPWARD TREND IN
LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTHWEST. AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BETTER COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT MADE NO
SPATIAL OR TEMPORAL CHANGES. AN EARLY CANCELLATION MAY BECOME
WARRANTED LATER THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A TREND
TOWARD CLEARING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OUR HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THIS FEATURE
EASTWARD WHILE TRENDING WEAKER AND MORE OPEN. LACK OF PHASING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIMILAR OUTCOME FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD
BUILDING OF WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE COULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN IS CURRENTLY IN FORECAST. FOR NOW RAW BLENDS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEM REASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURE RISING ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/03





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