Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192354 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Winds will turn more southwest and west through tonight at speeds
around 10 knots. Winds will then turn back to the southwest at AMA
and DHT and they will get gusty by Saturday afternoon. Winds at
GUY will stay more light and variable for much of Saturday as a
surface trough lingers near by. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and dry conditions continue on Saturday with elevated to
critical Fire Weather Potential (See Fire Weather Discussion). A
cold front with strong winds associated will impact the area on
Sunday. High Wind Watches are in effect for the southwestern
Panhandles for Sunday afternoon. This may need to be expanded
across the Panhandles to account for strong strong winds aloft
behind the cold front mixing down as well. So we may be looking at
a prefrontal southwest wind event for the southern Panhandles and
a post frontal north wind even for the northern and possible
entire panhandles. With ERC`s approaching the 90th percentile,
winds on Sunday could be a Fire Weather problem for initial
attacks, even if the relative humidities don`t quite fall to the
critical threshold (See Fire Weather Discussion). Wind gusts
could be 60mph Panhandle wide on Sunday.

Precipitation chances are still there for rain/snow across the OK
and northwest TX Panhandle on Sunday morning and early afternoon.
No significant snow accumulations are anticipated if at all.

Monday onward will be around normal for the highs with a
generally dry zonal flow across the southern CONUS. Southwest flow
begins to return Thursday night into Friday as another upper level
low approaches the Panhandles (may be another Fire Weather day
next Friday). Warmer temperatures look to be in store at the end
of the work week, but little to no precipitation expected.

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated/Critical Fire Weather continues over the next couple of
days. Sunday will be the main show with tomorrow looking more
marginal due to the winds struggling to meet the threshold.
RFTI`s look to be in the 1 to 2 category tomorrow, but should be a
4 Panhandle wide on Sunday. Fire Weather Watch continues across
the Western Panhandles on Saturday. Will defer to the midnight
shift for upgrades to danger statements and/or warnings.

Fire Weather Watch continues for Sunday across the central,
southern, and eastern Texas Panhandles. Other areas kept out of
the watch due to possible precipitation, cloud cover, lower ERC
values, as well as higher relative humidities, although the
potential for strong winds, and RFTI`s of 3 to 4 still will exist
for these areas.

Other areas could see RH values in the mid 20s to low teens, this
is all dependent on where the cloud cover will be and how long the
cold front lingers, allowing for daytime heating and better
mixing of the winds. ERC values have the potential to approach the
90th percentile prior to the winds on Sunday.

Weber

AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...All sites will remain VFR through the next 24
hours. Winds will be southwesterly and turning westerly for DHT
and GUY after 05Z. AMA will have some breezy conditions this
afternoon, but winds will calm this evening.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hartley...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

15/3



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