Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181802
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ALSO TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRYING...WHILE
INCREASING THEM IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. KDHT WILL ALSO SEE SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES AT KAMA ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT KDHT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION AT EITHER SITE UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AT KAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY FURTHER DETERIORATING TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KAMA
AND KDHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT THESE
TWO TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DRAW NEARER.

AT KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AT KGUY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY UPON SOLUTION FROM 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700 MB VORTICITY LOBE WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AS IT MOVES NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS 700 MB CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS BASED ON EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF PARENT SYSTEM.

LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED OR SLIGHTLY INCREASED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THIS
TIME.  LOW POPS RETAINED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NECESSARY
THRESHOLDS AND FUELS ARE MOISTENED BY WETTING RAINS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





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