Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221747 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

VCTS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
AFTER 22Z. HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KDHT 23Z-03Z.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF VCTS AT KAMA 00Z-04Z AND AT KGUY 02Z-05Z.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW MENTION RIGHT NOW.
VCTS/TSRA COULD EVEN LINGER THROUGH 10Z, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF A KGUY TO KAMA LINE. IF A TSRA DIRECT IMPACTS A TERMINAL,
BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, PER THE 1200 UTC KAMA RAOB.
THE LOW-LEVEL WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON.

OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE LOWELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC GRADUALLY BECOMES TILTED
OVER THE AREA.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ





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