Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240947
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
447 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
pick up again out of the north after 15Z and will be in the
20-25kt range gusting 30-35kts. By 00Z winds should be back to
light and variable becoming more westerly after 03Z.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
It`ll be another breezy day across the eastern Panhandles while
the western zones see slightly lighter winds. With the post
frontal airmass entrenched over the area, we will see highs warm
into the 60s. These seasonal temperatures won`t last long as we
see a return of westerly and southwesterly winds Wednesday. This,
in conjunction with warm air advection at 850mb, will allow our
high temperatures to warm back into the 70s with 80 degrees not
out of the question for the far northeastern zones.

A very potent cold front expected during the day on Thursday
remains on track. While this front is expected to surge south of
the Panhandles by midday, the deep cold air is expected to lag
behind the front by roughly 6 hours. This will likely give us a
decent freeze for the northern and western zones overnight. A
notable change from 24 hours ago is that the GFS and Canadian have
flipped and are in line with the 12Z ECMWF (00Z ECMWF was not
available for this forecast). Have retained POPs across the
western zones late Thursday night into Friday morning. Forecast
soundings continue to show a decent dry layer below the clouds. It
is likely that we could have a period of virga until the column
saturates. Depending on when this occurs we could see light rain
or a few flurries. One constant in the forecast is that
accumulations remain extremely light (trace to a few hundredths).
Friday and Friday night continue to look to be the coldest
timeframe for this forecast. High temperatures will struggle
break out of the 40s except possibly the far southeastern Texas
Panhandles. Overnight lows Friday night continue to indicate that
the whole area will experience a freeze with most of the area
getting their first hard freeze of the season. Hard Freeze Watches
will likely be needed as we near the end of the work week.

Saturday begins a gradual warming trend expected to last through
the weekend. A wind shift on Monday could hold the northern zones
to the 60s with the rest of the area pushing 70s. Dry conditions
look to continue through the start of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  39  74  49  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  35  78  47  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              60  37  75  48  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  65  43  76  55  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              66  36  77  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  63  38  74  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               64  39  76  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 64  36  77  47  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  63  36  77  48  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                64  37  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  37  77  50  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   64  40  76  52  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                66  39  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              68  38  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14


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