Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 142155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
155 PM PST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will move across southern
California tonight resulting in a drying trend across our area.
Another upper low will drop into the Great Basin tonight and push
a dry cold front through our area on Thursday. Later in the week
high pressure will move into the area and bring slightly warmer
temperatures. A strong cold front will push across the area on
Sunday Night and Monday brining much cooler temperatures early
next week.


.DISCUSSION...The upper low which was parked off the SOCAL coast
overnight and provided much of our area with some mid level
clouds which kept minimum temperatures well above forecasted
levels is now moving east toward the SOCAL coast. WRF indicating
this system will move inland tonight and early Thursday as an
upper low drops into the Great Basin and pushes a dry cold front
through our area late tonight and early Thursday. The main impacts
from this system for our area will be cooler temperatures and a
short period of gusty winds most noticably along the west side of
the San Joaquin Valley and below the passes in the Kern County
mountains late tonight and early Thursday as the front pushes
through. At this time it looks to be borderline at best for a
Wind Advisory so will hold off on issuing one for now.

Cooling temperatures and clearing skies behind the front will
result in patchy frost in the San Joaquin Valley on Thursday
morning and again on Friday morning as winds diminish by Thursday
night. High pressure will strengthen off the CA coast on Friday
and build inland enough to bring a warming trend to our area
Friday through the weekend with temperatures expected to rise to
above seasonal normals on Saturday and Sunday.

Confidence in the forecast decreases beyond Sunday as the medium
range models remain in poor agreement with handling an upper
trough which is progged to deepen over the PAC NW on Sunday then
drop into the Great Basin on Monday. The operational ECMWF
remains the most aggressive in dropping the trough southward over
CA and providing much of our area with some precipitation on
Monday while the operational GFS keeps the deeper moisture north
and east of our area and keep precipitation confined to isolated
showers over the Southern Sierra Nevada as a cold front pushes
through on Sunday Night or Monday. The ensemble means are more in
line with the GFS so will follow that idea for now. The RMOP is
indicating very low confidence in the forecast for the first half
of next week. The trough will bring colder temperatures to our
area early next week and guidance is suggesting a freezes are
possible in the San Joaquin Valley next Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning.


.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in low
clouds over the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains
thru 12Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere in
the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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