Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 142316
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
316 PM PST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system off the Pacific Northwest coast is expected to
bring widespread rain and heavy snow over the sierra high country
late Wednesday through Thursday night. High pressure returns late
in the week for a dry weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some low clouds and patchy fog developed early this morning in
parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise clearing with mostly
sunny skies. Think some patch fog will develop in the S San
Joaquin Valley tonight with high dew points and radiational
cooling. Fog threat should be minimal towards the North SV due to
stronger south wind mixing and high clouds ahead of an
approaching weather system.

Models remain consistent indicating heavy precipitation amounts
across the Sierra Nevada. This due to the weather system tapping
into a fetch of subtropical moisture and good orographic lift
over the front range of the sierra from strong mid level SW wind.
The higher resolutions models develop rainfall over the Yosemite
area by 18z Wednesday spreading south along the the sierra high
country. The San Joaquin Valley remaining dry until early
Thursday morning. The wind flow direction from the SW at 40-50
kts is ideal for orographic enhancement in the Sierra north of
Kings Canyon. On Thursday, models continue to slowly move the
precipitation band to the south, reaching Kern County by Thursday
afternoon. Wind flow continues to be from the southwest to west
and again this will enhance precipitation in the Sierra, but limit
accumulations over the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert
due to downsloping. Expect some gusty winds through and below the
coastal mountain passes along the west side of the San Joaquin
Valley passes on Thursday. Diminishing showers Thursday night and
Friday morning as the frontal band moves to the east of the area.
Snow levels will start out rather high, at or above 8000 feet
however by Friday morning levels will fall to around 6000 over the
Yosemite area and to around 7000 feet in southern Tulare County.
A winter storm warning has been posted for the higher elevations
of the Southern Sierra Nevada until Friday morning. The heaviest
precipitation and snow is targeting areas from Sequoia Park north
to Yosemite. Burn scar areas will need to be closely monitored
with the Detwiler burn far enough north to get in on some of the
potentially heavier rain, while the Pier Fire area will see some
topographic enhanced rain.

Ridging is progged to move into the forecast area this weekend for
dry weather with the next potential for rain and snow arriving
over the northern sections on Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect IFR conditions due to showers and mountain obscurations after
18Z Wednesday over the southern Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the central CA interior during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday
ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Friday
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.

&&

$$

public...MV
avn/fw...BSO
prev discussion...Dudley
synopsis...MV

weather.gov/hanford



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