Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 221045
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
345 AM PDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled conditions will
prevail through Wednesday. Another storm will move through the
area on Friday and Saturday bringing additional precipitation.
A cold front moved through the area Tuesday bringing some strong
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The main
trough which pushed that front across the area is still located
off the coast this morning. Additional energy rotating through the
trough is generating a band of showers across northern
California, extending through the San Francisco Bay Area and off
the coast of Monterey. The trough will slowly push inland today,
pushing this shower activity eastward as well. The airmass is not
quite as unstable as Tuesday, however lifted indicies are progged
to be -2 to -4 by late morning and continuing through the
afternoon with cape of 400-600 J/Kg as the cold pool moves inland.
This is sufficient for some thunderstorm activity and they may
bring heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds. With slightly colder
air in place today, expect snow levels to be 6500 to 7000 feet.
The trough will shift eastward tonight with thunderstorms ending
by late evening. Some showers will continue through the night
with the focus becoming more over the southern portion of the CWA
and the Sierra Nevada as the system moves east. A few showers may
linger over the mountains Thursday morning, but a shortwave ridge
of high pressure will bring a mostly dry day across the region
Thursday before the next system moves in on Friday.
Models are in good agreement in bringing this next system into
northern California Friday morning, with just a slight chance of
showers across Merced and Mariposa counties. The showers will
spread southward Friday afternoon and continue through Friday
night. The trough will shift east into Nevada by Saturday
afternoon, however a chance of showers will linger over the
region through the afternoon.
Models bring another trough of low pressure across the region
Sunday afternoon through Monday, but they diverge a bit on the
strength and placement of the system with the GFS being a bit
stronger and farther south with the low than the ECMWF. Expect
unsettled conditions through Monday with near normal temperatures.
Isolated thunderstorms from 18Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday.
Otherwise, in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert, local
MVFR conditions in showers. In the Southern Sierra and adjacent
foothills, widespread mountain obscuring IFR in showers. In the
Tehachapi Mountains, areas of MVFR conditions with local IFR in low
clouds and showers.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.