Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 140837
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
237 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LEAVES A QUIET
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HELP TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING GUSTY WIND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE ONE
LAST WARM AND DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY LEAVES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
PORTIONS OF FREMONT COUNTY. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

WIND ACROSS ADDITIONAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK
SPRINGS AND CASPER WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL QUICKLY USHER IN COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARK AND TETON COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. SOME ENERGY FROM A
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED SO WILL ONLY HAVE SOME MOUNTAIN POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...JUST
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS...UNLIMITED CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA WILL
RESULT IN A PREVAILING S-SW SFC WIND DEVELOPING TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MIX TO THE SFC AT KLND AND KCOD THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT AREAS OF LLWS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
DIVIDE AS SW WINDS NEAR 7KFT TO MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TO
30-40KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
GUSTY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SYSTEM SHIFT...WITH ONE MORE ROUND OF LOWERING HUMIDITY AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WIND CONTINUES TO LEAVE AN ELEVATED THREAT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. THE THREAT WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







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