Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 282043
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
243 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER NEVADA WILL SPREAD DRYING INTO
THE SOUTH...SHIFTING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE KICKER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WHICH WILL GET THE CUT
OFF MOVING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
THE CUT OFF WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
CONTINUING SPREAD A DRY SLOT INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
MONDAY. THE DRY SLOT WILL PARTIALLY FILL IN WITH CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTH AND OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT. SOME WARMING IS INDICATED WITH MORE SUNSHINE AS PARTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A BIT
OF A FORECAST DILEMMA AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY WRAP BACK
AROUND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE NAM HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST
OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS IT CLOSER BUT HAS ALSO SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER EAST. EVEN THE LATEST EUROPEAN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE WETTEST
HAS SHIFTED EAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL
TO AROUND 8000 FEET OUT WEST BUT AGAIN WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE MAIN LOW WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE DAKOTAS BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED AND LINGERING MOISTURE
AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AND BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS NOT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WET EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT STILL A
COOL AND DAMP DAY.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN...NOT A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS ARE
FAIRLY LOW SO MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.
BY THURSDAY WE HAVE A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM. THE LAST OF THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND NOW
THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT
REMOVING THEM. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD MVFR/SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. . MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND ICING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN GOING OVER HIGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST 18Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WIDESPREAD MVFR/SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. . MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND ICING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN GOING OVER HIGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS 18Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COOL WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH GENERALLY
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER






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