Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250103
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT THEY
ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE PWAT HAS
FALLEN TO 1.64 INCHES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT TODAY WAS REGISTERED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
HOMESTEAD...WITH A MESONET SITE REGISTERING 5.11 INCHES. SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYED JUST OFF THE COAST TO PREVENT MORE
SERIOUS FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AHEAD WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE!
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.

AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  68  81 /  10  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  81  70  82 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  82  68  83 /  20  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  81  64  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



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