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000
FXUS62 KMFL 190040 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE REMOVING THE POPS OVER
THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FAR ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND NAPLES BY 2Z...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY PCPN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR WED.
POPS WED AFTN ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT...HIGHEST AT KAPF AND
HAVENT BEEN PLACED IN 0Z TAFS. ESE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  78  88 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  89  80  89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI            80  90  78  89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES           76  91  74  91 / 10 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK