Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 041323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND OFFSHORE BROWARD/PALM
BEACH COUNTY COASTS THIS MORNING LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. WEAK 700-500 MB TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT UPPER
LEVELS IS HELPING TO KEEP THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. MORNING
SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWING ABOUT THE SAME MOISTURE AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, HAIL ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME S/SW ABOVE 700 MB WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSING MORE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
PERHAPS LEANING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AREAS, WHILE ALONG THE GULF
COAST THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE STORMS
INLAND. AFTERNOON POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GENERALLY ON
TRACK AND MAY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NUDGE HIGHER POPS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO WESTERN SUBURBS OF SE FLORIDA. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SE FLORIDA
COAST THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT MAINLY FLL/PBI AREA THROUGH MID-
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VCSH/VCTS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LOW LEVELS
AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MID-LEVELS WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA.
HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH 20Z/21Z FOR A
VCTS MENTION AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE GULF COAST/KAPF PERHAPS
HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF A DIRECT TS IMPACT. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS IT DOES...IT WILL NUDGE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE
MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE. SEVERE PARAMETERS AGAIN LOOK RATHER
MEAGER BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NAVY AEROSOL MODEL IS STILL DEPICTING
SOME SAHARAN DUST TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
PATTERN THUS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST.

BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TUTT-LIKE LOW PUSHING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS LESS
BULLISH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE ONLY A MINOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...ONLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES BY.

MARINE... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MOSTLY 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 4 FEET BOTH OVER THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  91  80 /  50  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  81  91  81 /  40  10  20  20
MIAMI            90  79  91  80 /  40  20  20  20
NAPLES           92  76  92  76 /  50  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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