Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 021406
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
COASTAL CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING HAS LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SE FLORIDA COAST
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BROWARD COAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MORE ACTIVITY EASTERN AREAS WITH THE TREND
IN THE AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A FOCUS TO THE
INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZES GET GOING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHRA EAST COAST WILL TRANSITION INLAND
WITH AFTERNOON TSRA FORECAST TO REMAIN INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ESE 5-10 KT EAST
COAST AND SW 5-10 KT AT KAPF. KEPT TS OUT OF KAPF AS FOCUS LOOKS
TO BE INLAND...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
RESULTING IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS
NOT TERRIBLY STRONG SO THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK. THE
PWAT IS CURRENTLY AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO THAT ALONG
WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS EACH AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOCUSING MOSTLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW ONLY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SO THE PRIMARY THREAT EACH DAY WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTS TO POSSIBLY AROUND 40 MPH.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP OVER NORTH AMERICA
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS MAY PLAY ON
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING NEARLY
IDENTICAL SOLUTIONS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A MASSIVE CUT-OFF
MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH IN TURN
AMPLIFIES A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. AT
THE SAME TIME, THIS WILL INDUCE A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THE DEPTH
OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER
500MB TEMPERATURES WITH A WEAKER TROUGH AXIS. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND CUTS OFF A LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND DEVELOPS A STRONG
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SAGS IT TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA
WHICH WOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT
ANY RATE, WHICH EVER MODEL VERIFIES THEY BOTH AGREE THIS WILL
LEAVE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONCENTRATING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ESPECIALLY
IF THE ECMWF HAS THE BETTER SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN.

MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  92  79 /  60  10  10  20
MIAMI            92  79  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
NAPLES           91  77  90  77 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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