Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  70  81  73 /  40  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE


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