Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 171957
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
357 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Tonight-Thursday)...model solutions depict an
amplifying mid/upper lvl trough over the SE states, gradually
migrating eastward. An associated sfc cold front boundary is
pushing through the northern half of the Florida peninsula,
bringing increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms
across South Florida through Wednesday night, with better chances
over the eastern half of the area. 12Z MFL sounding shows PWATS
around 1.5 inches, while model soundings still show 1.5-2.0 inches
during the next day or so. Thus, shower activity will continue to
increase through Wednesday night, then a drying trend begins
Thursday morning.

The FROPA remains weak, which will not bring a significant change
in temperatures, with most places remaining near or at normals.
However, southern-most/interior areas could reach upper 80s on Thu
afternoon.

Long Term (Thursday Night-Monday)...global models show the
aforementioned trough moving into the western Atlantic during the
second half of the work week as the dissipating front clears the
peninsula on its way to the Florida Keys. High pressure quickly
builds in the wake of the FROPA with northerly winds gradually
shifting to a more ENE flow by Thursday night into Friday.
Pressure gradients become tighter during the weekend with
possible periods of breezy winds across much of South Florida.

Remnant moisture lingering over the area will be enough to fuel
some scattered showers and a few storms, mainly each afternoon
with daytime heating. Temps will remain around normal through
the extended forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are shifting to more northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold
front moving across northern Florida. The northerly/northeasterly
flow will increase to around 20 knots by end of the work week.
Seas will be 2 to 5 feet before increasing later this week
especially in the Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is slowly approaching the area, helping to enhance
the chances for rain, and maybe a few thunderstorms. Chances increase
through the night, into tomorrow. Storm chances are on the low end,
so only VCSH in the TAFs for now. VFR is the predominate condition
through the TAF period, with brief IFR under heavy showers possible.
There is a chance for lower cigs to move into the area tonight, but
it is unclear how low they will be. For now, forecast sct020-025
with bkn030, but could be bkn015-025 at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  86  73  88 /  60  60  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  85  75  87 /  50  60  40  40
Miami            75  86  73  89 /  50  60  50  30
Naples           71  87  72  90 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...17/AR
AVIATION...13






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