Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221141
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
641 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Band of precip associated with low pressure system over Gulf
currently moving into KAPF with additional SHRA affecting east
coast sites. Expect steady deterioration of conditions as heavier
SHRA with embedded TSRA overspread region through remainder of
day. East coast sites expected to see heaviest rain 16Z-00Z, with
tempo IFR conditions possible for all sites with heaviest SHRA
and/or TSRA, and will amend as necessary. Rain should diminish at
KAPF after 19Z and at east coast sites 23Z-03Z. Gusty SE winds
12-18kts with gusts 20-25 knots for east coast sites through
afternoon, becoming VRB in the evening as surface low crosses
region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Isolated showers are starting to develop along the
east coast metro areas and the Atlantic waters early this morning.
Latest short range models show this trend continuing through the
day with activity becoming more scattered over the west coast as
low pressure system moves closer to the area.

Low pressure centered over Alabama will gradually moves east
closer to S FL today. This low will dig southeast this evening
and move across South Florida tonight into Thursday increasing
the potential for showers and thunderstorms across South Florida
today through the evening hours. The initial showers will be
caused by some isentropic lift well ahead of the system with
plenty of moisture ahead of it. Line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms will begin to develop over the Gulf waters and
enter the peninsula early this morning, then move across the
region during the day and continue into the Atlantic waters by
the late afternoon. The centered of the low pressure will
continue traveling east across S Florida tonight exiting the
region into Thu as it lifts northeast. Moisture wrap around
the low will enhance showers early Thursday morning with weak
cold front moving across the region. Decent 500mb vorticity
advection associated with the line of showers and storms. The
500mb temps are showing to be around -10.5C to -11C which would
help support thunderstorms. The front will not have a significant
affect for the surface temps, other than the high being about 5
degrees lower through Thursday.

Ridge builds quickly over the region as the system exits the
area with surface high centered further north. This will keep
dry and benign weather for the weekend. A weak front will move
across the area by Sunday but with very limited moisture. Abundant
dry air will filter into the region with a northerly flow.
Easterly flow returns Monday as surface high settles into the
region, which may allow for some moisture and isolated coastal
showers to begin to affect the Atlantic coast by the middle of
next week.

MARINE...Southeast winds will increase with Small Craft Advisory
in effect for the Atlantic waters today. SCEC is possible over the
Biscayne Bay, Lake and the Gulf waters. Expect an increase in
showers and thunderstorms today through the evening hours as
strong low pressure system approaches our waters today. Seas are
forecast to build slightly for portion of the week, currently to
around 4 to 6 feet in the Gulf stream. Early next week, a weak
front moves through the region building seas once again close to 6
feet, then subside quickly into Monday.

BEACH FORECAST...The southeast wind increasing through the day
will place a high risk of rip currents along the east coast,
especially for Miami Beach. With the frontal passage, and the wind
turning westerly, the threat of rip will diminish quickly
Thursday. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  63  79  67 /  80  70  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  63  80  65 /  80  70  30  10
Miami            75  63  80  65 /  80  60  20  10
Naples           76  61  75  64 /  90  30  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...88/ALM
DISCUSSION...67/MT
MARINE...67/MT
BEACH FORECAST...67/MT






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