Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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330 FXUS62 KMFL 040730 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 330 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South Florida today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with surface high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best opportunity for any isolated showers or weak convection with the sea breeze today and Sunday afternoon. An upper level disturbance advancing towards and into the Florida panhandle will open a small weakness in the upper level flow across the Florida peninsula from Saturday into Saturday night. This weak upper level disturbance combined with an increase in the moisture profile between 850 and 700 mb should induce some slightly greater PoPs during Saturday afternoon into the 20 to 40 percent range. With the continued moderate easterly flow, this activity will be most favored across the interior/western portions of South Florida. Expect for the afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into late next week as the upper level ridge strengthens. The temperatures also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid to even upper 90s across interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Generally easterly flow around 8 kts will increase to around 12 kts with higher gusts after 16Z. KAPF will again see a W-SW wind shift during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to peak in the 13-18 kts range out of the east and likely induce periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. && .BEACHES... Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 40 20 West Kendall 86 71 85 71 / 20 20 40 20 Opa-Locka 86 72 85 73 / 20 20 40 20 Homestead 83 73 84 74 / 20 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 83 74 83 75 / 20 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 74 83 74 / 20 20 40 20 Pembroke Pines 86 73 86 74 / 20 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 84 72 84 72 / 20 20 40 10 Boca Raton 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 40 20 Naples 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES....Rizzuto AVIATION...17