Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 060006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ON RADAR MOVING DOWN THE
GULF COASTLINE FROM NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND...DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MORE
DRY AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
KEEP GENERALLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WILL EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING TO
THE SURFACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...17/AR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.