Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 291413
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  20  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG


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