Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 252056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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