Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242346
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
746 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail as last of the day`s thunderstorms
west of Lake Okeechobee and north of Naples should dissipate by 02z-
03z. VCTS at Naples through 02z as a couple of storms will be just
north of the airport. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms over the
Atlantic tonight may approach east coast sites, with VCSH sufficing
for now. Little change on Sunday, with perhaps a slight east flow
compared to the past few days. VCTS at East coast sites after 16z
with scattered sea breeze storms moving very slowly west during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection continues to linger across interior portions of
Southwest Florida to the west of Lake Okeechobee and over the
Atlantic waters off the east coast. Forecast continues to capture
the expectation that the convection over inland areas will
decrease over the coming hours and the convection along the east
coast will linger through the next several hours. No updates are
necessary at this time. Have a wonderful evening!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer continues to hold over southern Florida with light easterly
flow, decent amounts of tropical moisture, and a warm airmass
holding over the region. Convection will continue to follow the
diurnal pattern we have seen the last few days with overnight
showers and storms over the waters, pushing ashore in the morning
along the east coast, and then more coverage developing inland as
the sea breezes form, push in, and collide. This general pattern
will continue through the end of the weekend into early next week
without much change. This pattern will continue to support the
chance for an isolated strong to severe storm or two each day
mainly with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts to 45
mph being the primary concerns.

By midweek, a frontal system will push across the United States
and enter the eastern portion of the country. As the mid-level
impulse amplifies southward into the southern Appalachian
mountains by Thursday morning, the corresponding surface front
will push into the peninsula of Florida. While the relatively
drier and cooler air behind the front will bring a taste of autumn
to much of the southeastern United States, it does not currently
appear that this system will have what it takes to deliver that
feeling much further south than northern Florida. So the story of
summer will continue for at least the next week across South
Florida with warm temperatures, showers, and thunderstorms in the
forecast.

MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will continue across the regional waters
through the weekend with regional winds light and variable at
times. Gulf seas will be around 1 foot or maybe less and Atlantic
seas 2 feet or less during the weekend. Weak high surface pressure
is forecast to build into the region early next week with easterly
to southeasterly winds forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  89  76  88 /  50  50  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  77  89 /  40  50  50  60
Miami            77  91  76  90 /  40  60  50  60
Naples           75  91  75  88 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...59/RM
UPDATE...02/RAG



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