Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 150744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-WEDNESDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND GENERALLY INDICATES A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED
TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRIER PATTERN COMBINED WITH RISING
UPPER HEIGHTS AND NORTHEAST MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SETUP AND FOCUS INLAND AND
TOWARD THE GULF COAST EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT AND INDICATE
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THIS TIME.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PWS VALUES JUMP BACK TO ABOVE THE 2"
MARK BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM RECENT RAINFALL ACTIVITY...LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO/COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD BECOME A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD IF THIS MATERIALIZES.

/85

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE EACH DAY FOR THE EAST COAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALOFT. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. SO HAVE VCTS FOR KAPF AND LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AT NAPLES
AROUND 18Z...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SWELL MAY WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE BULK
OF THIS ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST NORTH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  88  75 /  20  10  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  77 /  20  10  30  20
MIAMI            88  78  88  76 /  20  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  89  77 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK


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