Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

May have some patchy fog early this a.m. Will monitor that.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge will build across the area and
persist through the short term, with weak southerly flow at the
surface just west of a surface high pressure ridge. Above normal
temperatures and humidity levels are forecast. For now, we will keep
the forecast dry. We cannot completely rule out isolated convective
activity, mainly this afternoon toward the KY/TN border and MO
bootheel, and then again Friday, with weak upper support moving west
across the area. For now, confidence is simply too low to include
the mention. Otherwise, look for maximum heat index values in the
mid 90s to near 100 each afternoon. Used a blend of the models for
the overall forecast, and trended highs and lows more toward MOS.
Not a whole lot of cloud cover either.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Forecast confidence is high through the extended portion of this
forecast.

The 00Z guidance agrees that we will be under the influence of high
pressure aloft to begin the period on Saturday. A broad, weak trough
aloft will push northward through the region Sunday and Monday, with
the upper ridge reasserting itself Tuesday. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period.

Managed to keep the forecast dry Saturday through Tuesday, but an
isolated diurnal thunderstorm cannot be completed ruled out,
especially on Sunday and Monday with that broad trough in the area.
Well above normal temperatures and humidity will continue through
Tuesday.

Looking ahead to next Wednesday, there is some potential for showers
and storms to reach the area, as a short wave trough moves east out
of the central and northern Plains and into the upper Mississippi
Valley. The surface reflection will be dissipating as it approaches
our region due to the strong surface ridging over the Appalachians
that will be fortified by Hurricane Maria which is expected to be
running north just off shore the east coast. Given the issues with
the surface reflection, figure that convection will struggle to
reach the area. However, we will likely begin to see some
modest cooling as surface high pressure filters into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Scattered Cu
field has developed and some broken coverage cannot be ruled out
from time to time. Southerly winds today will gust into the teens
this afternoon mainly at KCGI/KPAH but will become light this
evening/overnight. Some possibility at patchy fog toward sunrise
tomorrow, but winds may stay up just enough to preclude any major
development.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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