Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Upper low over the central Plains will move east and end up over
southern IL by 06z tonight, while surface low pressure tracks from
central Kansas to northern Indiana. High chance for convection
continues today. Severe weather potential still in play. Refer to
the SPC day 1 outlook for details.

The chance of convection will diminish tonight through Friday,
with dry weather Friday night through Saturday. After midnight
Saturday night, our next chance of convection enters into
southeast MO late. The rest of the area should be dry. Temps were
a blend of MOS and existing numbers. A NAM/GFS/HRRR blend was the
overall model preference.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast confidence in the extended remains average to below average
with continued variability among the forecast models.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to generate yet another closed low over the Southwest by
Friday. This low is forecast to track east across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley early next week. Models continue to differ on
their handling of this low, but with the latest 00Z run, all are in
general agreement in taking it south of the immediate forecast area
or across our far southern reaches. The end result is the continued
potential for showers Sunday through Monday night, with chances
peaking Sunday night into Monday. Will keep a mention of thunder
Monday and Monday night with at least some elevated instability in
close proximity to the low.

A brief period of dry weather should return to the area on Tuesday
as a mid level ridge builds in. Our next chance of showers and
thunderstorms arrives mid week as yet another low pressure system
approaches from the Plains. Thunderstorm potential appears to be
somewhat higher with this system with the low`s track north of the
region and better mixed layer instability.

Forecast temperatures reflect a consensus model blend. Highs through
the period are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows should
average in the 50s.


Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Mainly VFR cigs anticipated today, with some MVFR cigs possible
with convective activity. Main band of convection will move from
west to east across the area from midday through late afternoon.
Gusty SSW winds expected, some gusts 20 to 25+ kts. Winds will
back down and veer to the southwest for tonight, with rain chances
tapering off. Better chance of MVFR cigs late tonight.



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