Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260550
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Clipper system will depart the region this evening. Wrap around
moisture on the west side of the system will result in scattered
showers...esp east of the MS River this evening. Still is some
chance enough cold air could filter in to produce some light snow
showers or flurries, but we will probably lose moisture in the
dendritic growth zone aloft. Therefore, drizzle may also be a
possibility. Will even throw in a slight chc of freezing drizzle
toward morning in case the light precip persists.

Remainder of the short term looks generally dry and seasonal as
weak high pressure tries to build in on a broad nw flow aloft
behind the monster low that will be bombing out off the East Coast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

This period will likely be marked by a gradual transition to deep
H50 flow as a deep trof forms over the Great lakes region. A couple
more clipper systems will brush by to our north/east within this
flow, but thinking now is that most of the energy will these lows
will stay along and ne of its path. The first system will come
through Thursday, and the next one will arrive Saturday. There is
some uncertainty whether arctic air will plunge south behind the
second system Saturday night/Sunday. The op ECMWF is consistent
with developing a very deep mid lvl closed low near James/Hudson
Bay region while the GFS has really backed off. Gut tells me to go
with the more consistent ECMWF colder solution, but will not go
all the way there at this time in order to minimize possible
error.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1150 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An area of low pressure will continue to move ewd away from the
region tonight, resulting in slowly improving conditions. The only
exception will be the sustained nwrly wind above 15 kts overnight,
which should subside by sunrise. VFR conditions should prevail by
mid afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB








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