Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 191034
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNDERCUT BY A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EAST
ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER. A WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH HAS SEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS NOW AROUND 0.6 INCHES. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF UTAH...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL FIRE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY ACTS ON
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW WILL BOTH SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...PUTTING UTAH
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS
ARE SET TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...THESE WINDS WILL STILL AID IN
MIXING...RESULTING IN A SMALL UPTICK IN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS.

UPSTREAM TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE
GREAT BASIN...GRAZING NORTHWEST UTAH IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THE BULK
OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF UTAH...A RELATIVELY STRONG
BUT SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM IDAHO INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE
WILL ALSO GET DRAWN INTO EASTERN UTAH FROM ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ZONES
AS WELL. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA...A TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CARVE FARTHER
SOUTH...CROSSING UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND KEEPING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ALIVE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL DUE TO THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS STILL ONLY
SUPPORT LEVELS DOWN TO 7500-8500FT ACROSS THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD ON WEDNESDAY...REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE REMAINS STEADFAST IN THE EC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LATEST GFS GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
REGARDLESS...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE GFS WOULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE EC SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 19Z. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT WINDS AND POOR MIXING FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM IN ARIZONA WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING MODERATE CLEARING INDICES FOR THIS LIMITED AREA
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVING BURNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST BASINS. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
PRECIPITATION DIVES INTO NORTHWEST UTAH ON TUESDAY...BOLSTERING
TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING DEPTH THUS ENABLING EXCELLENT CLEARING
INDICES NEARLY STATEWIDE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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