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000
FXUS65 KSLC 122151
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
351 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A
DRY BUT FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF IT...SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS INCREASING...BRINGING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
THE STATE...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IDAHO AND
NEVADA. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST UTAH...BUT
LITTLE CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. STILL...ISOLATED
HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY NORTHERN
UTAH THROUGH THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MAXES RUNNING IN
EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN MANY LOCATIONS. AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH EASES CLOSER TO THE AREA TOMORROW...SOME COOLER AIR
WILL START TO MOVE IN. SO LITTLE CHANGE IN NORTHERN UTAH TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...AND THEY MAY EVEN BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY GRAZE NORTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL BRING A
FAIRLY POTENT DRY FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AS IT
PASSES. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY...AND MAXES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5F BELOW CLIMO.

BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP AS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION STRENGTHENS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE INDICATING TEMPERATURES COOLING
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. THIS SAID...A
20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL PRODUCE A STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO BRIEFLY SWITCH WINDS TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 01-04Z THIS EVENING.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL TOMORROW BETWEEN
18-20Z...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ZONES 496 AND
497 THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GUSTY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER FOR LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOWED THE FRONT
SOUTHEAST...THOUGH SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH FOR FRIDAY. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN AHEAD OF FRONT...AND MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL COVER ALL DISTRICTS
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BREEZY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ496-497.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)