Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 181630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT THE STATE LATER
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AMOEBA SHAPED LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS IS OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS MORNING. ONE OF THE CENTERS...LOBE OF
ENERGY...IS MOVING ACROSS SRN NEVADA THIS MORNING HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIFT OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. SATELLITE SHOWING COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER THIS WITH RADAR FILLING IN AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED POPS
FOR THIS AREA A LITTLE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN
HAS BEEN ALOFT AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND...WHICH IS DUE TO A
RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LAYER. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS LATE MORNING
AND DAY PROGRESSES. ALSO THE DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DIFFLUENT. HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BUT AS ALWAYS THERE WILL BE SOME
AREAS THAT WILL GET MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHERS BUT TOO HARD TO FIND
THESE SUBTLETIES AT THIS TIME.

DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT REST OF PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SALT LAKE CITY TERMINAL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AFTER
18Z. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT...WITH PERIODS
OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT OR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IN PART DUE TO THESE SHOWERS THE
WIND FORECAST IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z...AND REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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