Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 041109
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
409 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH TODAY...WITH A
SECOND SYSTEM GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...A WEAK PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF A WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING/WEAKENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY THERMAL
STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW IN THE AIR AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ANY
VALLEY ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. THAT
SAID...COLD SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ANYTHING WHICH FALLS
TO STICK NORTH OF I-80 INCLUDING THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND
CACHE VALLEY. MAINTAINED LIKELY VALLEY POPS WITH ACCUMULATION
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT WITH AGAIN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

A SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN
ID/WESTERN WY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY SEE THIS SPILL INTO THE
WASATCH FRONT AS WELL LATE THIS EVENING...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS A
BIT...ALTHOUGH IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA
WILL NEED TO HIT THIS A BIT HARDER.

MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LONE CAVEAT IS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT
CROSSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE
SUSPECT ANY THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
TRIMMED MENTIONABLE POPS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN UT...ONLY RETAINING
SMALL CHANCES NEAR THE ID BORDER.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE MEAN LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THAT
TIME. BOTTOM LINE...MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH GRADUAL WARMING /MOST NOTABLE IN THE MOUNTAINS/ AS H7 TEMPS
WARM FROM NEAR -2 C AT KSLC ON 00Z MONDAY TO +4 C BY 00Z WED WITHIN
THIS HIGHLY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF
BUILDING VALLEY INVERSIONS WHERE SNOW DEPTH REMAINS PLENTIFUL...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING WE ARE TRENDING AWAY FROM THIS A BIT DUE
TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND LENGTH OF DAY.

&&

AVIATION...CIGS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
DAYLIGHT AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WITH PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE 16-19Z TIMEFRAME. ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH A DUSTING TO ONE-HALF INCH
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. A 60 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT
WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM A LIGHT SOUTH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST IN WAKE
OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 19-20Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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