Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 011549
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1049 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
230 AM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY...

MUCH QUIETER IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
CONTINUES TO DRIVE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DVN/ILX PAINT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURES...ONE
OF OUR AIRMASS TO COME AND THE ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS STRONG COLD
FRONT...WITH AN INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 900 MB LOCKING THAT
MOISTURE IN PLACE PER KILX IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE A LOOK
AT KDVN STILL SHOWS A MODEST INVERSION...BUT IT IS MUCH
DRIER...AND THE INVERSION IS UP CLOSER TO 850 MB. WE FIND
OURSELVES IN BETWEEN THESE WITH SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER OF OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH BUT WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD BASES OF OUR
WESTERN NEIGHBORS. THE UPPER PATTERN DRIVING DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD IS LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SE MISSOURI....WITH
WEAK A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO ALSO KICKING EASTWARD WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOT MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
TODAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY GLIDES ON THROUGH. THEREFORE
EXPECT NO MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS TO GRAZE THE AREA THIS MORNING THAN
DRIFT EAST...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALSO LIFTING A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY WHICH
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR EROSION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. COOL NE WINDS
PERSIST TODAY...BUT ROCKFORD WAS ABLE TO TAG 65 SUNDAY WITH LIMITED
CLOUDS...SO MORE CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW MID TO EVEN SOME UPPER 60S
AFTER THE COOL START...WITH LOW 60S IN WESTERN COOK...AND MID 50S
DOWNTOWN.

THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL POKE ITS NOSE OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH RESPONDS BY DRIFTING EAST SOME RESULTING IN SE
FLOW AND WARMER LOWER LEVELS AS WELL...THUS WE REACH THE 70S INLAND.
ANOTHER STOUT LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH SYNOPTIC ONSHORE
FLOW AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT A LITTLE BIT
WARMER.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
230 AM CDT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PUSHING WEST THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE RIDGE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WARM
SOME MORE...WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP INITIALLY. ADDITIONAL WESTERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD TO KEEP
LITTLE OTHER THAN INCREASED CLOUDS IN PLACE. THURSDAY AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...AREA WIDE SPEAKING...OF THE
UPHILL CLIMB THIS WEEK. LAKE BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COME LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN SOME OF THE PLAINS ENERGY IS ABLE TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE.

KMD

&&

.CLIMATE...

ROCKFORD IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW TUESDAY
MORNING JUNE 2ND. THE RECORD LOW IS 41 SET IN 2003.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS THRU EARLY EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.
 CMS/MM

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND THESE SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPECIFIC TRENDS/TIMING WILL LIKELY
NEED ADJUSTMENTS THRU THE MORNING.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH WELL UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE
NEAR 10KT FROM THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS TODAY...MEDIUM ON END TIME.
 CMS/MM

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. EAST WINDS.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

317 AM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20KTS CONTINUING...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ014 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.

IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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