Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 250350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SETTLING IN FOR A QUIET 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S FOR MOST...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD PUSH UP BRIEFLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT OVERALL STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING WILL
KEEP WINDS FROM ATTAINING STRONGER MIXED VALUES OCCURRING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN A BREAK
FROM THE FOG THREAT...EVEN AS WIND DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. DID...HOWEVER...TAKE TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH VALLEY AREAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF. SW MN INTO PARTS OF NW IA ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON TO A BIT MORE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A SPLENDID DAY AS TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS...AND WINDS LARGELY LIGHT...AFTER SOME POTENTIAL
MIXING OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE MORNING...
AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE FAR WEST BY AFTERNOON. A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMFORTABLY ATTAINED WITH USUAL LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS RATHER A TRICKY ONE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW STRATUS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT. IF THE STRATUS DOES
MATERIALIZE AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. BASED ON MOISTURE
TRENDS...THINK THAT OUR WESTERN HALF SHOULD BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD
COVER EARLY IN THE DAY AND WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE EASTERN HALF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH A GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS TO LINGER IF IT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD...WENT SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. BUT ANY CHANGES IN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE COULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OR COOLER
READINGS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY DRY MID
LEVELS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO ON THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM IS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE FORMER GFS IN CLOSING OFF THE LOW AND SLOWING
IT...BUT ALL MODELS ARE FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN AND FASTER TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE...BUT DRY MID LEVELS MAY INITIALLY PREVENT MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM GETTING GOING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
AND ANY SHOWERS THE DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THE WAVE SHOULD
EXIT INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN OUR EAST SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN
SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AS WELL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND.

MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. OVERALL COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS MIXING DECREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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