Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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277 FXUS64 KLUB 010849 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 349 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The overall synoptic pattern will remain very similar today compared to the past several days with modest quasi-zonal flow aloft over West Texas. With a lack of any airmass modification, deep layer moisture will remain impressive locally with surface dewpoints above 60F and PWATs near or above one inch. Despite considerable convective overturning from last night`s MCS, the airmass is still expected to recover over the entire region with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s supporting MLCAPE values above 3000 J/kg. Even so, little or no convection is expected to initiate over the South Plains region during the daytime hours given a lack of any coherent low level confluence and minimal forcing aloft. However, with low level theta-e ridging extending all the way to the base of the New Mexico high terrain, scattered storms are still expected to initiate over eastern New Mexico during the late afternoon through early evening as a more significant shortwave disturbance within the westerly flow arrives overhead. As has been the case over the past several days, westerly steering flow will allow this activity to shift eastward into West Texas this evening into tonight. Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across essentially the entire forecast area given the favorable downstream environment including continued steep midlevel lapse rates and moist southeasterly low level inflow. Just how widespread severe storms become is still uncertain and will depend on the evolution of upstream activity in NM. Given the pattern and in consideration of how things have evolved over the last several days, have boosted PoPs above NBM into the chance category across most of the forecast area this evening into tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Lee troughing will develop Sunday afternoon with the dryline draped from north to south across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s through the day with convective temperatures being reached. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the dryline and push eastward through the night. MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg with bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates will support severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow aloft will provide additional forcing for the thunderstorms to continue after sunset into the nighttime hours. Additionally, the low level jet will ramp up which may help to keep a few isolated strong storms through the overnight hours as they move eastward out of the forecast area. The dryline will have mixed eastward overnight and by Monday be positioned along the Rolling Plains. There is a low potential for storm development Monday afternoon off the Caprock, but some deepening cumulus cloud development is likely. Very warm temperatures are expected due to downsloping southwesterly surface winds. With triple digit heat making an appearance, convective temperatures will once again be reached. A tongue of 850mb theta-e will be most prominent just east of the forecast area into northwest Texas and western Oklahoma where an upper shortwave will also provide forcing for thunderstorms. However, an isolated strong to severe pulse storm across the far eastern stack of counties from Childress to Stonewall cannot be ruled out with a brief potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Height rises are expected Tuesday as the upper ridge builds in across the southwest CONUS and flow aloft turns northwesterly with an upper trough swinging across the Northern Plains. Temperatures will peak Tuesday with very warm downsloping winds and triple digit heat across most of the forecast area. Lubbock may reach a record breaking high Tuesday with the previous record being 106 degrees (set back in 2013). Conditions will remain dry Tuesday with the better chance for precipitation to the east of our area. With the passing trough across the Northern and Central Plains, the triple digit heat will be short lived as a back door cold front sweeps southward through the area Wednesday returning highs to the 90s. Towards the end of next week, the upper ridge will continue to build eastward into New Mexico with northwesterly flow aloft. Several embedded disturbances in the ridge will give way to increasing precipitation chances late next week and into the weekend. Temperatures will also remain near or slightly above normal in the 90s for this time period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Extensive line of TSRA about 20NM west of a line from CDS to SNK at 0520z will continue to shift eastward through the next several hours. -TSRA at LBB and PVW will gradually end over the next hour, with a period of +TSRA with very strong and erratic winds likely at CDS between 06-08z. VFR is expected outside of convection with TS clearing the entire area by the early morning hours. There is a very low chance of MVFR CIGs at all sites near sunrise Saturday, but chances of this occurring are much too low for specific TAF mention. Otherwise, VFR will continue through most of the day on Saturday, with additional TS possible at all sites beginning on Saturday evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30