Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Earlier convective complex has dissipated, leaving VFR conditions
across the area. Expect VFR to stick around through this TAF


Thanks to earlier convection/cloud cover hanging around through
the mid-morning, we have decided to adjust afternoon highs down a
nudge. Easterly winds are prevailing, which will also keep temps
from rising too quickly. Also, pulled rain chances out for this
afternoon. The cool airmass that has settled in behind the front
has stabilized the region for now. It will be difficult for
daytime heating to get any sort of convection going this
afternoon, especially since the front has barreled out of our
region. It is the second to longest day of sunshine for the year,
so we do get a little extra heating, thus why we did not pull
temps down any further.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/

Big picture: Today, high pressure will continue to build across the
SOCAL/AZ/NM borders. Thus, resultant upper level flow over the FA
will become northwesterly (and stay that way through the end of the
week). To our east a weaker high pressure system aloft will continue
to turn over the southeast. While, northeast of the region a slow
moving upper low over Montana and the Dakotas will open into a
trough in the early morning hours.

Moving to the mesoscale...a convective surface outflow/front,
associated with the aforementioned upper trough, will be sent
through West Texas today. Today`s convective chances will be highly
dependent on how slow (or fast) the front moves through the
Panhandle. Although models continue to be underwhelmed about
convection developing during the day Wednesday there is still a
chance some areas receive precip this afternoon. If the front
stalls during peak heating of the day, and the CAP is broken, the
upslope flow will be met by PWs of more than an inch and convection
could develop across the Rolling Plains. Given MUCAPE values of a
little over 1200 J/kg and bulk shear values of close to 35 knots,
some storms could become strong to severe with strong wind gusts and
large hail. BUT, (and this is a huge BUT), if the front moves
through the region before peak heating then convection will be very
isolated to zero.

Thursday, the upper ridge begins to break down as flow becomes more
westerly. This will help usher in a drier air mass and limit our
thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Both Friday night and
Saturday night, there is a chance that thunderstorm activity could
brush the far NE zones due to shortwave energy riding over the ridge
helping storms develop across the Rookies. Westerly flow should keep
the storms north of the area but, again, there is a chance our NE
zones see some activity.

Westerly flow will continue to usher in drier air over the weekend.
Thus, it will be hot and dry with high temperatures surge past the
century mark. At the start of next week, the upper level ridge
flattens as a closed low moves through the central Conus. This
will allow possible MCS development most days with precip over or
very near to our CWA.




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