799
FXUS64 KTSA 021856
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tough short term forecast given widespread showers and
thunderstorms ongoing near I-35 early this afternoon that have not
been well handled by models. The current expectation given
mesoanalysis is for these thunderstorms to persist into mid to
late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, albeit likely in a
declining phase given lower instability here and widespread high
clouds preventing a substantial increase in such. The exception
may be along the Red River where there is locally higher
instability, and a strong to severe thunderstorm threat may
persist into southeast Oklahoma. There should be a relative lull
in activity for a portion of the evening perhaps into early Monday
morning, with attention then returning to the west. Thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon and evening near the dryline in the
Texas Panhandle and push eastward across southern Oklahoma this
evening and overnight. A strong to severe threat may be
maintained, depending on how the afternoon/evening activity
modifies things. A second area of storms may also develop along
the Kansas border, although coverage here should be lower than
down south. POPs have been heavily based on the short-term
blended consensus and current observational trends, with the NBM
initialization displacing the highest POPs well north of the above
thinking.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The ongoing active weather pattern looks to persist into early to
mid week, followed by a couple of quieter days late week and an
increasingly active next weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas at daybreak Monday,
which should continue to move eastward through the remainder of
the morning. Any redevelopment in the afternoon looks to mainly
focus across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, if the
mid level disturbance has not shifted northeast of the area by
then. In general, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances can
be expected Monday afternoon and evening as the disturbance pulls
away. There may be an uptick in coverage early Tuesday morning as
another disturbance moves through quickly on the heels of the
previous one.

The most notable shower and thunderstorm chances remain likely to
arrive Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in response to a
front moving into the region from the north. High instability to
the south of the front and sufficient deep layer shear will
support a threat for severe weather, especially during the evening
hours Tuesday.

The quieter period will arrive late week behind the front,
persisting through Friday. Northwest flow aloft next weekend will
support overnight thunderstorm complexes that develop in the High
Plains moving into the area, beginning Friday night and early
Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Widespread convection ongoing across central OK is expected to
continue eastward through the afternoon and likely impact E OK
terminals though the overall coverage and duration of any flight
level restriction criteria is more uncertain. Expectation is that
convection will decrease in coverage and/or intensity further east
and will not include mention across NW AR terminals at this time.
Storms will again develop west of the local region overnight and
spread eastward with thunderstorm chances increasing for forecast
points late tonight and continuing through Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  83  71  87 /  30  40  30  10
FSM   72  86  72  87 /  30  50  50  20
MLC   69  83  71  86 /  40  40  30  10
BVO   69  82  68  85 /  30  30  30  10
FYV   69  83  68  84 /  20  60  40  20
BYV   68  83  67  84 /  20  60  40  30
MKO   70  81  71  85 /  30  40  40  10
MIO   69  81  68  84 /  20  50  40  20
F10   67  82  70  86 /  40  40  20  10
HHW   69  83  71  86 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...18