042
FXUS64 KFWD 191054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue most
  afternoons this week, mainly west of the I-35 corridor.

- A dry cold front this morning will drop temperatures below
  normal for a day or two before quickly warming up late in the
  week.

- Storm chances return on Sunday for areas along and east of I-35.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only had to make minor adjustments to account for trends this
morning. The dry line has made it to the Metroplex, with patchy
blowing dust and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Be careful on the
morning commute while these conditions exist! A cold front will
push through the region this morning, keeping breezy conditions in
place through the day and into the evening. Much cooler
temperatures can be expected with a continued fire weather threat.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tonight/

Satellite analysis reveals a huge plume of blowing dust that
stretches from the border of Mexico in West Texas all the way
north into portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. This is the result of
gusty winds upwards of 55 mph behind the dry line that is
gradually pushing east thanks to a strong surface low currently
moving across the Central Plains. Patchy blowing dust will be
likely across portions of North and Central Texas through the
morning as the dry line moves into our region. Gusty winds upwards
of 45 mph will accompany this blowing dust, which given the
timing, could make the morning commute a bit interesting. Be sure
to slow down if visibilities are reduced this morning due to the
dust. On top of this, high profile vehicles will want to be extra
careful this morning, especially if traveling on west/east bound
highways and interstates. Stay weather aware today!

Our main headlines will remain unchanged, with a Wind Advisory
and Red Flag Warning in effect through tonight. Conditions will
remain favorable for an elevated to critical fire weather threat
despite cooler temperatures through today. Afternoon highs will
only reach into the low 60s and low 70s behind a strong cold front
that will push into the region through the morning. Winds will
remain increased behind the front, with sustained winds anywhere
from 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph once again. Thankfully
the system that is tightening our pressure gradient across the
region will push off to the east, allowing winds to return to
around 10 to 15 mph overnight tonight. Clear skies and northerly
winds will allow lows to dip into the mid to upper 30s. There is a
low chance that a few of our rural and low-lying locations hit
the freezing mark, so be sure to bring in your plants!

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Mild weather conditions will prevail on Thursday as an upper-
level ridge and surface high axis pass directly overhead. While
the boundary layer will remain starved of moisture (surface
dewpoints in the 20s), weaker wind speeds should preclude most
fire weather concerns on Thursday. The amplified upper level
pattern of late will become more zonal by the end of the week even
as the first in a series of shortwave troughs embedded in the
mean flow grazes the Southern Plains late Thursday into Friday.
The attendant leeward surface low will shift towards the Midwest
by Friday morning dragging a trailing weak cold front across
Oklahoma and into North Texas through the afternoon and evening.

Before the front arrives, the compressed surface pressure
gradient will enhance south-southwesterly winds across the region
again with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 30-35
mph. These breezy downsloping winds will push afternoon highs into
the 70s and low 80s. The overlap of this unseasonable warmth
(5-10 degrees above normal), along with increasing wind speeds,
and minimum relative humidity values in the 20 to 30% range will
result in near critical or critical fire weather conditions. The
area of greatest concern will be near and west of the I-35
corridor.

The negligible change in airmass characteristics behind the front
should yield not much more than a wind shift as the front passes
through with no appreciable cold/dry air advection expected. As
the parent trough becomes increasingly displaced to the north-
northeast on Friday night, the forward progress of the cold front
is expected to slow with the boundary eventually stalling across
North Texas. Simultaneously, stronger height falls spreading
across the northern/central Rockies will result in lee cyclogenesis
in southern Colorado. Subsequent low-level jet development over
the southern Plains will encourage the stalled front to retreat
north of the Red River on Saturday leading to a warmer and
slightly more humid day. Though slower moisture recovery west of
I-35 may continue to locally enhance fire weather concerns in the
afternoon (min RH 20-30%), the overall fire weather threat should
be considerably lower than Friday given the more modest wind
speeds across North and Central Texas with sustained winds
generally around 10-15 mph.

There has been a persistent signal in both ensemble and
deterministic guidance that suggests a potential for low rain and
storm chances spreading into our northeastern zones briefly
Saturday evening. This activity is associated with the increasing
isentropic ascent coincident with the lifting warm front.
Additional rain chances will develop across eastern North and
Central Texas Sunday afternoon as a mid-level trough crosses the
central CONUS. The associated surface low pressure will track
southeastward through Oklahoma dragging a cold front and dryline
across the region. Within the moist airmass ahead of these
boundaries, there should be sufficient instability and shear to
support a threat for a few strong or severe thunderstorms through
the evening.

Not everyone will see rain, however. In fact, areas west of I-35
are likely to see several hours of elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions Sunday afternoon as relative humidity drops
below 25% and surface winds approach the critical threshold.
Early next week, amplified ridging over the Intermountain West
will work together with troughing over the Appalachians to sustain
a dry northwesterly flow aloft. Surface high pressure over the
Plains looks to keep wind speeds light though, which may keep fire
weather concerns at bay. However, confidence in next weeks
pattern remains low so this is subject to change as the week
progresses.

12

&&
/12z TAFs/

Concerns...Gusty winds, marginal speed LLWS, morning FROPA.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
entire period. The dry line has made it through the D10 and will
continue to push east. Patchy blowing dust will linger with the
gusty westerly winds this morning, and should eventually thin out
later this morning as a strong cold front clears the region. Minor
crosswinds and speed LLWS will be likely through the morning.

Northerly winds will remain in place through the rest of the
period, although they will stay breezy with sustained winds
anywhere from 20 to 30 kts. Gusts upwards of 40 kts will be
possible through the afternoon and early evening. Winds will
gradually become lighter, around 10 to 15 kts overnight.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  42  66  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  40  68  41  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               65  39  60  38  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              64  36  65  41  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            65  38  64  41  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  43  66  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  39  64  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  41  66  41  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  39  69  39  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  36  68  40  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Red Flag Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ091-100-101-
115-116.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ129-130-
141>143.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ156>158.

&&

$$