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908
FXUS64 KFWD 271149
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made with this update. Showers and
thunderstorms have blossomed across Central and Southeast Texas
and will continue to increase in coverage over the next couple of
hours. Hail will be a concern with stronger storms through the
afternoon hours. See below for additional forecast details.

Barnes

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

A cold front will continue to move through the area overnight with
light northerly winds expected in its wake. Cloud cover will
quickly increase behind the front, though precipitation is not
expected for most of the region tonight. Towards sunrise, a
gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms will occur across
Central Texas as the front begins to collide with rich low level
moisture. With decent elevated instability and deep-layer shear in
place, a few strong to marginally severe storms may be able to
organize. The primary threat with these stronger storms will be
hail.

Areas of fog may develop across parts of East Texas and the
Brazos Valley early this morning. Dense fog may occur at times
with visibility dropping below a mile in some locations.
Conditions should improve a couple hours or so after sunrise as
winds speeds increase to 10-20 mph across the area. Meanwhile,
showers and thunderstorms will persist across Central Texas
throughout the day. Stronger storms will continue to pose a threat
for hail through this afternoon until instability eventually
dwindles.

An upper-level cutoff low over the Desert Southwest will continue
on its eastward path towards our area today. As this occurs,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
spread further north this evening/tonight. A rainy day is
expected on Saturday as widespread soaking rains slowly move east
throughout the day. The rain will keep temperatures confined to
the 40s and 50s, making for the coldest day of the month so far.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 220 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Fairly widespread rainfall will still be ongoing Saturday evening
with a slow-moving upper low passing overhead. However, the swath
of precipitation will begin to exit the area from west to east
through the evening and overnight hours as the dry conveyor belt
wraps around the departing low. Lingering light rain will remain
possible through Sunday morning in parts of Northeast Texas, but
most of the area will be rain-free by daybreak. Some partial
clearing should occur throughout the day, especially across
Central Texas, but portions of North Texas will likely see
stubborn stratus stick around through the afternoon. A secondary
push of cooler and significantly drier air will arrive late Sunday
afternoon and evening, scouring remaining moisture from the area.

A cold dome of high pressure will settle in to begin the workweek
following the late Sunday front. This will mean continued below-
normal temperatures through the first half of the week with
little/no chance for rainfall. Freezing temperatures are possible
both Monday morning and Tuesday morning, although Tuesday will
probably be the colder of the two with more favorable radiational
cooling conditions. For the few remaining locations in the CWA
that have not yet experienced a freeze, it`s looking like this
will be their first of the season.

Broad troughing over the entire CONUS is expected to continue
through the middle/end of next week with numerous disturbances
pivoting through the parent trough. Depending on the next system`s
timing, it could either result in another dry frontal passage, or
a more widespread rain event. A fast solution with a disturbance
arriving on Wednesday would prevent significant moisture return
ahead of the front, likely leading to a dry solution. A
slower/deeper disturbance would allow for abundant moisture to
arrive ahead of the system resulting in widespread rain chances.
The forecast will remain centered around ensemble mean solutions
with near/below normal temperatures and low PoPs until guidance
comes into better agreement.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR and IFR cigs have overspread much of the region and are
expected to persist over the next few hours. VFR is expected at
D10 terminals from 16Z to 05Z until MVFR ceilings are ushered
back in for the remainder of the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across Central and
Southeast Texas and will continue to increase in coverage over the
next couple of hours. VCTS will remain in the ACT TAF until
instability dwindles this evening. Overnight, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will become more widespread across North and Central
Texas. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected at
all terminals for most of the day Saturday.

Northerly winds will persist through the TAF period with wind
speeds increasing to 10 to 12 knots this morning. Gusts near 20
knots will be possible through the afternoon hours.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  46  50  41  55 /   5  20  60  70   5
Waco                63  50  50  41  56 /  30  50  80  60   5
Paris               65  43  55  41  50 /  10   0  20  80  20
Denton              63  42  49  37  55 /   0  20  60  70   5
McKinney            64  44  50  40  55 /   0  10  50  80  10
Dallas              64  48  51  42  55 /   5  20  60  80   5
Terrell             64  47  51  41  54 /  20  20  50  80  10
Corsicana           63  52  52  44  56 /  30  30  60  80  10
Temple              62  49  51  39  58 /  50  50  90  60   5
Mineral Wells       63  42  46  37  56 /   5  30  80  50   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$