Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
158 FXUS64 KFWD 111822 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ A few diurnally driven showers and storms will develop this afternoon and continue through early this evening mainly for areas across the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Some of this activity may reach the I-35 corridor, but the chances are less than 15%. The main hazards with this activity will be lightning, brief moderate/heavy rain and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s with heat indices near 100 at some spots. The rest of the night should remain fairly quiet before low clouds spread northward by Saturday morning. A mid-level trough will begin to move southward from the TX/OK Panhandle during the day tomorrow and is expected to meander over the region through the weekend. The combination of this mid-level wave and the daytime destabilization will result in scattered showers and storms especially in the afternoon into the evening. Much of North and Central Texas will have at least a chance (30%) to see some rain tomorrow with the highest coverage across northwest TX and the Brazos Valley. Occasional lightning and gusty winds may occur with some of the stronger activity, but severe weather is not anticipated. Some locations may also see brief heavy rain but the average rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon are expected to stay less than 1 inch. The threat for flooding may increase Saturday night into Sunday as the next round of precipitation arrives. Rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday, especially for North Texas. The mid-level wave will progress slowly eastward but will likely linger over our region until Monday. A weak surface boundary may also attempt to move south from Oklahoma, but at this time it is expected to remain just north of our area through Sunday. Areas of showers and storms will begin to develop overnight Saturday and slowly move eastward during the day. We will keep the highest PoPs across the western counties and along the Red River Saturday night shifting eastward during the day Sunday. Some showers/storms may produce locally heavy rain that could result in localized flooding. Latest guidance show average rainfall totals between 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches (20-30% chance). Areas generally west if I-35 and along/north of I-20 currently have the best chances to see those isolated higher amounts. Trends will be monitored tonight and a Flood Watch may be needed for some of these locations given the saturated soils from recent rainfall. Afternoon highs will remain below normal over the weekend given the increased cloud cover and rain chances in the forecast. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Next Week/ The week will start fairly active with decent rain chances on Monday and lingering low chances through Wednesday. The upper level feature responsible of the weekend`s weather will slowly move eastward on Monday, but will still be in the vicinity to result in some scattered activity during the day. Rain chances will decrease from there, but given the uncertainty of the progression of the trough, there will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms through mid-week for areas along the Red River to the northwest. The rest of the region will likely remain rain- free. However, we will have to keep an eye on any outflow boundary that could push some of this activity farther south. Otherwise, expect highs to be mainly in the low to mid 90s through the week with heat indices up to 103 each day. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...isolated storms this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Low ceilings possible tomorrow morning. VFR and breezy conditions will continue the rest of the afternoon. South winds between 13-16kt are expected gusting to around 20-25kt through 00Z before they diminish this evening. Latest high-res models continue to show isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening (after 20Z) mainly east of the TAF sites. Coverage is too low to mention it at this time, but we can`t rule out some impact with the eastern arrivals/departures. The rest of the night should remain fairly quiet before the next round of stratus move northward Saturday morning. Kept the mention of MVFR for all the sites, but some of these clouds may scatter out before reaching some of the sites. Better chances of scattered showers/storms are forecast Saturday afternoon, but timing and placement are still uncertain to introduce VCTS at this time. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 93 74 89 74 / 5 40 50 50 30 Waco 75 92 74 91 74 / 5 30 30 40 20 Paris 75 91 74 90 73 / 5 40 40 50 20 Denton 75 92 72 88 73 / 5 40 50 60 30 McKinney 76 93 74 90 74 / 5 40 50 50 30 Dallas 76 94 75 91 75 / 5 30 50 50 20 Terrell 75 92 74 91 74 / 5 40 30 40 20 Corsicana 76 93 75 93 75 / 5 40 20 40 10 Temple 75 92 74 91 73 / 5 30 20 40 10 Mineral Wells 74 92 72 88 72 / 5 40 50 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$