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000
FXUS64 KFWD 211726
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Monday Night/

Strong subsidence has overtaken the region today in the wake of a
departing mid-level trough and the arrival of much drier air at
the surface. Clearing skies coupled with northerly winds will
result in a pleasantly cool mid spring afternoon with highs across
North and Central Texas ranging in the low to mid 60s. Cool
conditions will continue through tonight with mostly clear skies
and calm winds across the region. This will allow overnight lows
to dip into the low to mid 40s. Patchy fog will be possible
through Monday morning where the most saturated soils linger, but
coverage will be too sparse to include in the public forecast.

Slightly warmer conditions begin to return tomorrow as winds
become southerly once again. Highs across the region tomorrow
afternoon will range in the upper 60s and low 70s with mostly
clear skies, allowing for a nice start to the workweek ahead.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Return flow will already be in place Monday night, and will
strengthen on Tuesday as North and Central Texas becomes
positioned between a cold front to the north, dryline to the west,
and surface ridge to the east. The resulting narrow pressure
gradient will increase south winds to 15-25 MPH with occasional
higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge
will strengthen overhead, helping to return temperatures to near-
normal values for the midweek period. The front will stall near
or just north of the Red River, providing as focus for isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours
both Tuesday and Wednesday. The presence of the ridge will
preclude more widespread convection, and POPs will be limited to
areas generally north of the I-20 corridor (closest to the front
and farthest from the ridge axis).

The front will retreat north on Thursday as a shortwave trough
advances east through the Four Corners region and a lee surface
trough deepens. Any thunderstorms which would affect the region
Thursday afternoon and evening would need to initialize near the
dryline, which should still be located well west of the forecast
area. A strong capping inversion may end up shutting off
convection as it attempts to move east into the region, keeping
any POPs in the slight chance range. Slightly better storm chances
will occur on Friday as the shortwave lifts northeast through the
Plains and the dryline shifts farther east to near Highway 281.
Thunderstorms which fire near the surface boundary would likely
survive the trek across the I-35 corridor Friday evening before
dissipating overnight Friday night. Some of the Friday storms
would likely have a potential to produce large hail, though it is
still a bit too soon to speculate on all of the severe weather
parameter details.

Unsettled weather will continue next weekend as a deeper upper
trough takes shape over the western CONUS, providing additional
chances for thunderstorms across the region. A lead shortwave will
lift northeast through the plains on Saturday, generating another
possible round of dryline-induced convection Saturday afternoon
and evening (similar to Friday). The main trough will eventually
move through the Plains next Sunday into the following Monday,
providing additional storm chances, with activity focused along an
attendant Pacific front.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Generally cloud-free skies have returned to North and
Central Texas today thanks to increasing subsidence and drier air
filtering in. Northerly to northeasterly winds around 10 to 15
knots with occasional gusts upwards of 20 knots will continue
through much of the day, becoming light and variable through the
evening into the overnight hours. Southerly winds will return to
the region through tomorrow afternoon, around 10 to 15 knots.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  47  72  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                66  44  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  42  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              65  42  71  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  42  70  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  47  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             66  42  70  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  45  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              67  44  71  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  43  72  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$