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000
FXUS64 KFWD 241145
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
645 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018


.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Subtle wind-shifts, FROPA and convective potential.

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire 12 UTC TAF Cycle.
Light southerly flow this morning is expected to continue for a
few more hours at Metroplex TAF sites which could enable for south
flow operations through the morning push. After about mid-morning,
winds are likely to become more variable, but will remain light.
As a surface low/trough develops to the west of the region, winds
should become more easterly with speeds near or below 10 knots. At
Waco...southerly winds will be the theme through the morning
before they shift to the east.

Showers and a few storms are expected to develop to the west of
the Metroplex TAFs late tonight into early Wednesday morning. This
activity should travel eastward, but will likely encounter
increasing atmospheric stability which should quell the potential
for widespread storms. For now, I`ll advertise the potential for
a few showers at the Metroplex, though if instability is greater
than currently forecast, a VCTS group may be needed. Waco should
remain rain-free through the current valid TAF. FROPA should
occur around the 12-15 UTC time frame on Wednesday at the
Metroplex, though winds may turn to the south very briefly before
the arrival of the boundary. East winds may become more southerly
at Waco, but the front should remain north of the terminal through
12 UTC Wednesday.

24

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/
/Today/

Rain-free conditions are forecast today across North and Central
Texas today as H5 ridging continues. Low level flow should
continue to turn towards the east, but given southerly flow
sampled aloft via regional VWP, I wouldn`t be surprised if winds
turn more to the south this morning briefly before backing to the
east as a surface trough develops across West Texas. High
temperatures will range between the upper 70s into the mid to
upper 80s due to the dry airmass in place. Skies will be mostly
sunny through noon with an increase in mid/upper level clouds from
the west during the afternoon hours.


24

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/
/Tonight through Monday/

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will likely already be in
progress across parts of west and northwest Texas by early this
evening ahead of an approaching upper disturbance and associated
cold front. Steering winds out of the west-northwest will likely
send some of this convection into our forecast area prior to
midnight, but it will encounter less instability as it progresses
eastward into the night. We`ll have fairly high PoPs across our
west and northwest counties through tonight.  Meanwhile, as the
upper shortwave spreads southeastward into the Plains, the cold
front will begin to accelerate and should be entering North Texas
by early Wednesday morning. Fairly strong warm advection above the
cooler frontal layer should result in a large area of elevated
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across much of Oklahoma
early Wednesday morning. These will gradually spread southward
through the day Wednesday with coverage increasing around midday
when the strongest height falls spread over North Texas. The
threat for severe weather is low as most of the convection should
be post-frontal and instability is lacking. Temperatures on
Wednesday will likely be warmest during the morning hours before
falling into the 50s behind the cold front. Precipitation should
end across the region late Wednesday night.

Thursday is shaping up to be a nice day as high pressure briefly
settles in and temperatures climb into the mid 70s. We`ll still be
in a northwest flow pattern aloft though and another fast moving
shortwave will swing through the Plains Thursday night. This will
drag yet another weak cold front into the region on Friday. Right
now the best forcing with this system looks like it will be just
to the east of our area, so other than an increase in cloud cover,
no significant impacts are expected at this time.

Next weekend also looks like it will be fairly nice with
temperatures in the 70s and low 80s with generally low chances for
rain. Moisture will increase through the early part of next week
with additional rain/storm chances possible.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  58  68  49  74 /   0  30  50  20   5
Waco                84  58  76  50  75 /   0  10  30  30   5
Paris               79  55  65  47  71 /   0   5  60  40   5
Denton              81  55  65  47  73 /   0  40  60  20   5
McKinney            80  55  67  47  72 /   0  20  50  20   5
Dallas              83  59  70  50  75 /   0  20  50  30   5
Terrell             81  55  72  48  74 /   0  10  40  40   5
Corsicana           80  57  73  49  73 /   0  10  30  40   5
Temple              84  59  77  51  75 /   0  10  30  30   5
Mineral Wells       84  56  65  44  74 /   5  50  60  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/91