Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
096 FXUS64 KFWD 130646 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of heavy rain could result in Flash Flooding tonight through Sunday evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North and Central Texas. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ A moist and unstable airmass remains entrenched across North and Central Texas this morning, as the upper trough drifting slowly eastward across Kansas and Oklahoma drags a small vorticity max across Central Texas. These features are embedded within a stagnant and weakly diffluent upper-level flow pattern, situated between broad ridging over the Desert Southwest and the Southeast U.S. The resulting col region aloft, augmented by the quasi- stationary trough over the Central Plains, continues to support deep-layer ascent across a saturated column. This setup will sustain the ongoing wet and unsettled pattern through the forecast period with periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding remaining the primary concern through early Sunday evening. Recent GOES-East water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a broad moisture plume draped across North and Central Texas with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range, above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. These values are consistent with the latest HREF and NBM probabilistic guidance, which continue to advertise high-end moisture anomalies. The slow-moving thunderstorm complex that has developed across western Central Texas (near Lampasas, Mills, and Hamilton counties) over the past few hours is expected to continue to gradually shift east and northeast across the region through the remainder of the overnight period, supported by persistent low- level WAA and the mid-level perturbation embedded in the flow aloft. While surface-based instability will be limited during the early morning hours, elevated instability (750-1500 J/kg) will support continued convective redevelopment, particularly south of the I-20 corridor where convergence remains maximized. Rainfall rates will vary locally, but any slow-moving or training convection will be capable of producing 1-3 inches of rain in a short period, with localized amounts in excess of 4-5 inches possible. Given the already saturated soils in portions of North and Central Texas, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM Sunday for areas mainly and along and west of I-35, including the DFW Metroplex and the I-35 corridor southward to Temple and Waco. The watch has been cancelled for the following locations where the expected additional rainfall totals are now below 1 inch: Young, Jack, Montague and Cooke. The relative lull in activity occurring across North Texas right now is expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours as early evening convection has stabilized the lower troposphere. However, as the vort max continues to progress across Central Texas we could begin to see convective activity spreading towards the I-20 corridor before daybreak, in addition to redevelopment in eastern North Texas, closer to the favorable forcing of the main upper trough. Scattered thunderstorms could develop again this afternoon, particularly along remnant outflow boundaries and differential heating zones. With the weak mid-level low progged to be lingering nearby, most of the CAMs support renewed activity favoring Central and East Texas, with the potential for localized training storms once again. Weak mid-level winds will continue to promote slow storm motions, maintaining a flash flooding risk into the early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated though isolated gusty downburst winds and even a few isolated instances of small hail cannot be completely ruled out. 12 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday through Saturday/ Lingering moisture and weak ascent may continue to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. By Monday evening, the broad upper-level trough should finally begin to lift northeastward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley, leading to a decrease in precipitation chances across most of our forecast area. Though Tuesday was previously anticipated to be the beginning of our transition towards a more typical mid-July pattern, the mid-level ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. is now not likely to build as strongly westward given the lingering influence of the late weekend troughing which may still be located to our north as we head into mid-week. Despite this forecast shift, there should still be a decrease in rain chances while high temperatures warm closer to seasonal averages. Continued surface dewpoints in the 70s will push heat index values into the triple digits next week, with peak values in the 100-105 degree range especially along and east of I-35. Ensemble guidance shows general agreement in the ridge maintaining control through the end of the week, though some signs of subtle weakness aloft could allow for isolated sea breeze-driven showers or storms to reach our southeastern counties by late Friday and into next weekend. Confidence remains low in the scenario for now. Otherwise, a hot and increasingly dry pattern will dominate through the end of the forecast period, typical for mid-July in Texas. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ As one batch of convection pushes off to the east, a second round of showers and storms will approach from the west during the overnight hours. These storms are associated with with the development of a modest 35 kt low level jet, and may briefly impact the Metroplex area TAF sites sometime during the 09-15Z window. Convection will be more persistent across Central Texas, which will warrant at least a TEMPO for KACT if not a few hours of prevailing thunder near that same window. Activity will dissipate late morning as the low level jet subsides. Widely scattered storms are possible again late Sunday afternoon, but probs are too low to include in the TAFs at this juncture. Better opportunities will arrive late Sunday night when an MCV (as indicated by recent model guidance) lifts northeast through the area. Will assess that potential in future forecasts. Otherwise, another round of MVFR ceilings appears likely to develop by 12Z, then dissipate around 16Z. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested tonight within the Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 90 75 93 / 50 30 30 5 10 Waco 88 73 89 74 91 / 60 30 20 5 5 Paris 85 70 88 72 91 / 70 40 40 10 20 Denton 88 72 91 73 93 / 50 30 40 5 20 McKinney 87 73 89 74 93 / 60 40 40 5 10 Dallas 88 73 90 75 94 / 60 30 30 5 10 Terrell 88 73 89 73 93 / 60 40 30 5 10 Corsicana 90 74 92 75 94 / 60 30 30 5 10 Temple 90 72 91 73 92 / 50 30 20 5 10 Mineral Wells 88 71 91 73 93 / 50 30 40 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093-094-102>104-115>119- 129>134-141>145-156>160-174. && $$