Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 150459
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1159 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Late evening satellite imagery shows a tropical disturbance over
Deep South Texas with convection ongoing throughout the Coastal
Bend and Rio Grande Valley. Upper level outflow from this system
is quite impressive, reaching as far north as the Metroplex where
a dense cirrus deck is currently in place. These high level clouds
will continue to stream across Central and North Texas through the
overnight hours, but all of the rainfall will remain well removed
from our area.

As this system continues to move farther inland on Monday, it will
undercut the sprawling subtropical ridge to the north and begin to
shift the ridge axis back to the east closer to North Texas. This
will keep modest subsidence in place across the region and allow
temperatures to continue to climb. Most areas should be between
99-102 degrees today. On Tuesday, the center of the ridge axis
should be nearly overhead, while a weak shortwave progresses
through the Plains. Southwest flow ahead of this disturbance and
beneath the ridge will allow temperatures to climb further, with
highs between 100-104 degrees areawide. Deep mixing should result
in dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s and should
keep heat indices within 1-2 degrees of the actual air
temperature. We`ll hold off on any heat advisories at this time.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Hot weather will continue through mid week, as high temperatures
climb into the triple digits across most locations both Tuesday
and Wednesday. We`ll continue to assess the need for heat
headlines during this time period, as either air temperatures or
heat index values may reach Heat Advisory criteria for portions of
the area. Strong subsidence will keep rain chances near zero
through Tuesday.

A weakness in the ridge aloft will allow a cold front to slide
into North Texas on Wednesday. Moisture convergence near the
boundary will aid in the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area by Wednesday afternoon. A
few showers and storms will likely continue through Wednesday
night, with another blossoming of convection expected across
Central Texas Thursday afternoon in response to daytime heating.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into
Friday across Central Texas as moisture remains abundant near the
washed out boundary. However, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty in what next weekend will entail regarding the
potential for continued showers and storms. Active weather may
hang around for several more days as a series of shortwave troughs
sweep across North and Central Texas. We`ll stick closely to
national blends for now and continue low rain chances through the
weekend, but stay tuned as we get a better handle on how this will
evolve over the next few days.

Thankfully, the increase in cloud cover and presence of showers
and storms should provide some much needed relief from triple
digit temperatures. High temperatures should remain in the 90s
through next weekend, with a few locations only seeing
temperatures reach into the upper 80s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south-southeast flow
around 10 kt. SCT/BKN250 cirrus plume from the tropical
disturbance across South Texas should be the only cloud cover
overnight into early Monday. Otherwise, no significant aviation
concerns expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 100  80 103  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77 101  78 103  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75 100  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              77 100  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77 100  77 102  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80 100  81 103  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77 100  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77 100  78 102  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  99  75 100  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75 102  75 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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