926
FXUS64 KFWD 242132
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected near and west of
  I-35 this afternoon.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast Saturday afternoon
  and continue through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1204 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

A sunny and breezy afternoon is upon North and Central Texas
today. Returning south-southwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine
will allow temperatures to top out in the 50s across the region
over the next several hours. A surface low off the lee of the
Rockies will keep the surface pressure gradient tightened across
our northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA, leading to sustained wind
speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to around 25 mph through
early evening. The presence of gusty winds, warming temperatures,
and low afternoon humidity less than 20% will aid in an elevated
fire weather concern this afternoon for areas near and west of
I-35/I-35W where fuels are driest.

A 35-45 kt LLJ will set up across the region overnight, keeping
the boundary layer coupled. In response, some of these strong
winds will be able to make it down to the surface as gusts up to
around 20-25 mph. All in all, Saturday morning low temperatures
will be a bit warmer due to these gusty south winds. Expect low
temperatures in the 30s region-wide. Moisture return will be
slightly delayed until later Saturday morning, when a deck of low-
level stratus will be ushered across the majority of the forecast
area. While the intrusion of cloud cover will aid in tempering
diurnal heating, persisting southwesterly winds ahead of an
incoming cold front and the resulting compressional warming will
push afternoon temperatures into the 50s to mid 60s. Warmest
temperatures will be near and west of I-25 where less cloud cover
is expected.

The biggest change to the forecast with this issuance is be the
inclusion of low-end PoPs for areas near and east of I-35 as high-
resolution model guidance is picking up on warm advection-induced
showers over the latter portions of the afternoon out ahead of
the frontal boundary. Forecast soundings relay little to no
instability, so the afternoon activity should remain showery in
nature.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
There have been no significant changes since the previous
forecast, with a more active pattern still expected to begin
during the second half of the weekend with the arrival of a cold
front. Following a cooler day on Sunday, we`ll see another warm up
for much of next week along with periodic chances for showers and
storms. The best chances are still expected to be Wednesday and
Thursday, but there continues to be uncertainty in the speed and
track of an upper low, which may have implications on the
expected timing of showers and storms and where the greatest
rainfall totals will occur. Continue to monitor the forecast over
the next several days.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night Onward/

A somewhat active patten will unfold the next week across North and
Central Texas as a slow moving upper level low provides multiple
opportunities for showers and storms. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above seasonable norms through the end of the month with
highs in the 50s and 60s.

A weak cold front will be at the doorstep of North TX Saturday
evening that will slowly progress through the area overnight.
Ahead of the front, strengthened warm and moist southerly low
level flow will be ongoing across much of Central and East TX,
which will likely support some light showers developing Saturday
night east of I-35. As the front progresses through the area,
coverage will become it`s highest across the southeast after
midnight, with scattered showers and a couple of storms possible.
Instability is quite limited during this time, but there will be a
window into the early morning where there will be the potential
for a few rumbles of thunder. No severe weather is expected. The
highest rain chances will push south of the area fairly quickly,
with lingering showers still possible Sunday as the front loses
momentum south of the forecast area. Rain amounts will be fairly
unimpressive, with areas near/south of HWY 84 and east of I-35 in
Central TX having a 50-70% chance of picking up > 0.25".

Sunday`s highs will be the coolest of the next week, and the only
day of below normal temperatures (by around 5 to 15 degrees)
after Saturday`s cold front. Temperatures will top out in the mid
and upper 40s across western North and Central TX as well as the
Red River, with low/mid 50s elsewhere. We`ll start to warm up
again Monday with highs back in the mid and upper 50s for most,
before heading into a couple of days with highs in the 60s
areawide in the midweek. A break in rain chances will occur Monday
with high pressure dominating at the surface, which will quickly
shift east of the region with southerly winds returning by Monday
night. With the weak low/mid level ridge shifting east, richer
Gulf moisture will once again invade and this time will make it
farther inland than Saturday Night`s attempt. We`ll maintain
west/southwest flow aloft during this time with a weak shortwave
potentially allowing for the redevelopment of showers as early as
during the day Tuesday, but the better chances will hold off
until Wednesday and into Thursday as the cutoff low slowly treks
towards the Permian Basin. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in the actual track/timing of the cutoff low as they
tend to meander and be slow to approach. Nonetheless, southwest
flow aloft will become strengthened in the mid to late week as we
maintain ample moisture to work with from continued low level
onshore flow. This will result in rain chances (40-60%) and a
lower storm potential being maintained Wednesday into Thursday,
tapering off Thursday night and Day 8. Looking at rain amounts,
50th Percentile values from the grand ensemble range from ~0.10"
across the northwest, to near 0.75" across the southeast. Diving
into the cluster analysis, however, there is considerable
variations in the placement of the upper low and thus the highest
rain amounts, with about 20% of the members depicting widespread
0.5-1".

All of that to say... while it is going to be an unsettled week
ahead, the discrepancies among ensemble guidance are still high,
which will influence what features for more focused development
of showers and storms may develop, versus broader ascent that is
slower to approach. This will significantly impact where the axis
of greater rain amounts occur. To attempt to put it in perspective:
by the end of the day Thursday, the deterministic guidance has a
~450 mile difference in the placement of the upper low (GFS vs
Euro). If you account for the CMC, the difference is even larger
(+100 miles).

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1204 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Breezy south-southwest winds will prevail this afternoon at all
TAF sites thanks to a surface low in the lee of the Rockies. A
stout LLJ will set up overnight, keeping wind speeds at or above
10 kts through the overnight period, and allowing for minor LLWS
at the smaller D10 airports between 04-17Z, and ACT at 09-16Z.
Any LLWS at DAL/DFW should be a bit more marginal, and have
opted to forgo inclusion at these airports. However, it will need
to be watched tonight.

Southerly winds will persist through the rest of the TAF period,
though a tad less gusty tomorrow in the presence of a pre-frontal
trough. A deck of low VFR stratus will move atop the TAF sites
beginning late tomorrow morning, but should should not pose any
category change through 00Z Sunday. Isolated warm air advection
induced showers may be possible near ACT beginning at 21Z
tomorrow, but should generally remain east of the airport. Any
direct or vicinity impact is uncertain at this time, and have not
included any VCSH with this issuance.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  61  40  50  36 /   0  10  20  20   0
Waco                33  59  45  52  41 /   0  10  50  30   5
Paris               34  58  42  51  36 /   0  10  40  40   5
Denton              33  61  36  48  30 /   0   5  10  20   0
McKinney            34  59  40  49  33 /   0  10  20  20   0
Dallas              36  61  43  52  38 /   0  10  30  20   0
Terrell             34  59  43  52  37 /   0  10  50  50   5
Corsicana           35  60  47  54  42 /   0  20  60  50  10
Temple              32  60  44  52  41 /   0  10  60  30   5
Mineral Wells       32  65  35  47  31 /   0   0   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$