853
AXNT20 KNHC 042318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep-layered upper trough extending
across the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will aid in
strengthening of a low pressure currently located near 29N59W.
This system will move NE and exit the forecast waters Wed
morning. Strong to minimal gale-force SW winds are expected
ahead of this low pres this evening and tonight. Seas are
forecast to build to 10 or 11 ft within these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Latest model
guidance indicates that the most significant precipitation are
expected over north-central Dominican Republic. There are also
indications that significant rainfall could occur over parts of
east and central Cuba where abundant moisture will linger through
the rest of the work-week. The rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba
will be heavily influenced by diurnal heating and the local and
effects. As a result, the heaviest rainfall will occur in the
afternoon and evening hours each day. Please refer to products
from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 25W and
31W.

A second tropical wave is near 38W from 11N southward, and
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the
southern end of the wave axis from 03N to 07N between 36W and
40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 12N southward to
Suriname, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is behind the wave axis from 05N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W then continues
southwestward to 05N26W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 05N36W
to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from 08N to
11N between 15W and 20W, from 05N to 10N between 20W and 24W, and
from 04N to 08N between 40W and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over parts of
Panama and regional waters, particularly S of 12N between 76W
and 80W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb located near 31N72W extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is
resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to
3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires in southern Mexico persist across most of the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, where medium
concentration of smoke is noted on the smoke graphic recently
issued by SAB.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE
Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days.
This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE to S
winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds in the eastern Gulf through late Wed. By Thu, the ridge
will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the
weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central
America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days,
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the
western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is
helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba, including also the
Windward Passage and the regional waters between Haiti and
Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
Lesser Antilles in a SE wind flow.

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally
strong SE winds over the eastern Caribbean where seas are 5 to 7
ft based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate
winds are observed with seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central part
of the basin, and 1 to 3 ft over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western
Atlantic along 31N-32N. A deep layered upper-level trough from
the W Atlantic to the W Caribbean will continue to support active
thunderstorms across north-central portions through this evening.
As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated
weather will shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through
Thu. Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the
basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions
through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic. Please read the
Special Features section above for more information.

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N36W then continues
westward to near 28N50W. A surface trough extends from 28N50W to
to a 1011 mb low pressure located near 29N59W to 25N70W to
eastern Cuba. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is S and
E of the trough affecting mainly the waters N of 19N and W of 55W
to the trough axis. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.
Divergent flow aloft is supporting this convective activity.
High pressure of 1017 mb located near 31N72W dominates the
remainder of the western Atlantic W of the above mentioned
trough. Another high pressure system located over the central
Atlantic is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of
the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted E of 55W while moderate to fresh trades are blowing across
the tropical Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep-layered upper trough across
the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across
the region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between
55W and 70W, that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. The
feature will also aid in strengthening of the low pressure, which
will move NE and exit the area waters Wed morning. Strong to
minimal gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres
this evening as it moves across the NE waters. Weak high pressure
will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift slowly E-NE
Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move into the far NW
waters Sat and stall there Sun.

$$
GR