964
AXNT20 KNHC 061802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA AND IN CUBA:

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong rainshowers are from
Jamaica to the Bahamas near 26N between 72W and 85W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
spans the areas that are between 50W in the Atlantic Ocean and
90W in the Gulf of Mexico. Expect significant rainshowers through
Friday. The hazards to land are: dangerous lightning, heavy rain,
and gusty winds, through Friday. The soils remain saturated. It is
possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in north central Hispaniola, for this
afternoon and for tonight. The rainfall for Hispaniola and Cuba
will be influenced heavily by daytime heating, the local sea
breezes, and the mountain upslope lifting. Abundant moisture will
cover most of Cuba and the Cayman Islands today, as another upper
level trough reaches Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please,
refer to bulletins and forecasts that are from your local weather
bureau office for more detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 11N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: any close
precipitation is related to the monsoon trough or to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 11N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: any close
precipitation is related to the ITCZ. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence in water vapor imagery is within 240 nm on either side
of the line from 08N57W near the coast of Guyana, to 20N46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 14N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, inland in South America. No significant
deep convective precipitation is in the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 07N26W and 07N34W. The ITCZ is along
08N37W 07N46W, and 07N48W 07N54W 08N59W. Precipitation:
disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1017 mb
31N72W high pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in SE Louisiana,
and in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of
Mississippi. Isolated moderate is from 28N northward between 84W
in Georgia and the border of Mississippi and Alabama.

Fresh to strong NE winds have been from 24N southward from 90W
westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate SE winds have been
elsewhere from 90W westward. Moderate E to SE winds have been in
the Straits of Florida. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest
of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are in the western
half of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere.

Weak high pressure extends from the W Atlantic into the eastern
Gulf along 26N this morning. This pattern will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds through the next several days. Winds will
pulse to fresh near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 1 to 3 nm
at times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the heavy rainfall event in Hispaniola and in Cuba.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight to moderate seas from 3 feet
to 5 feet, span the entire area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 06/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras; 0.13 in Kingston in Jamaica; and 0.02 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, and in Trinidad. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia close to
11N74W, beyond the central coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation:
numerous strong is in Colombia from 07N to 09N between 75W and
77W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 30N.
A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the Mona
Passage will shift E-NE across the Atlantic, with associated
showers and thunderstorms spreading from the north- central basin
across the NE Caribbean and into the Atlantic through tonight.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to SE portions of
the basin this evening through Fri then gradually shift across
south-central portions through the weekend, as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic along 25N.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N43W to 26N50W 19N61W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 28N northward between 40W and 47W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are
elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the cold
front.

A surface trough extends from a 25N67W 1014 mb low pressure
center, to northern Haiti and to the Windward Passage.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 18N close to the NE Caribbean Sea islands, northward, to 28N
between 58W and 68W.

A cold front passes through 31N19W 28N26W 27N30W 28N37W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are within 60 nm on either side of the cold
front.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 23N34W.

Mostly moderate seas cover the entire area in general. The
comparatively highest sea heights, range from 4 feet to 6 feet.
Some smaller areas of sea heights of 4 feet or less are mixed
into the areas of predominantly moderate seas. Fresh NE winds are
from 14N to 21N from 25W eastward. Mostly moderate or slower winds
are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal trough extends from 24N55W to 1014 mb low pressure near
25N66.5W to the NW coast of Haiti, and will drift eastward and
weaken through tonight. A deep-layered upper trough across the W
Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to the Mona Passage will
shift E-NE across the region through Fri, maintaining active
thunderstorms E of the upper trough. Weak high pressure will begin
to build across the basin in the wake of the upper trough this
afternoon, then shift slowly E-NE tonight through Fri night. A
weak front will move into the far NW waters Sat and stall there
Sun.

$$
mt/ss