162
AXNT20 KNHC 140419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0418 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.8N 40.3W at 14/0300
UTC or 955 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 90
nm in the northern semicircle with seas to 15 ft. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N
between 33W and 40W. On the forecast track, Gordon will continue
the westward or west-southwestward motion during the next
several days. Little change in strength is forecast through
early Saturday, then Gordon should weaken to a depression by
Saturday evening. Gradual re-intensification is forecast by the
middle part of next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21.5W from 03N
to 16N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 07N
between 19W and the wave axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles near 60W from
08N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. No
significant convection is depicted at the moment in association
with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W extending from 20N
to inland western Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 08N24W
to 13N32W, and then resumes near 15N44W to 11N50W. The ITCZ
extends from 11N50W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 12N between 24W and 33W. A few showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the vicinity of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean
S of 13N and W of 73W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Alabama border to the
central Gulf. While a stationary front extends from the far
western Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampa Bay. A pre-
frontal trough is also analyzed ahead of the cold front from
29N87W to near 26N92W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinities of these three
features. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail across the basin, except for seas 2 to 3 ft over the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions
expected throughout the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave moving across the central portion of the basin.

A surface trough is analyzed from the western tip of Cuba
southeastward to about 19N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring off the coast of Cuba and from 15N to 19N between
Jamaica and 81W. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern
continues across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate northeast
to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the
central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to
east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft
remain over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of
eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the
beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters
the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the two waves in the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N80W to northeast Florida near
29N81W. A surface trough extends from 30N78W to South Florida.
Along this trough an embedded weak 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed near 29N78W. Scattered moderate convection is  noted
from 25N to 30N and W of 75W. An upper- level trough is
interacting with a surface trough over the central Atlantic,
generating widely scattered moderate convection across areas
north of 25N between 54W and 62W.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Storm Gordon. Earlier scatterometer data shows
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft occurring from
the Canary Islands to the west coast of Africa, generally north
of 25N and east of 26W. The remainder of the basin is seeing
gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low
pressure could form this weekend along a frontal boundary and
gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics a few
hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, a
subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas
will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into
early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail otherwise.

$$
KRV